Thought of the Day

This time is different? NO

Next week can be down , most probably

one year from now we will be at high time highs yes

Man will conquer the Corona very soon. no doubt of that. The world will be a better world after Corona. And a more safe world. The Virus has the days numbered.

Is it the virus? No the virus is not so bad at all. It's because the market (equities) is pricing in a recession. That is it

Normally in a recession markets fall between 20% and 50%. 2008 56% in 2000 49% etc....

From Charles GAVE excellent piece yesterday

As Frédéric Bastiat never tired of saying, economics is all about “what is seen, and what is not seen.” In recent years, what markets have seen is the rise of profit margins permitted by globalization, and the adoption of the platform company model. What markets have not seen so clearly is the rise in fragility that came with the optimization of supply chains: fragility as supply chains became ever more dependent on China; political fragility as Western workers (and voters) felt increasingly squeezed out; and financial fragility as Western governments continue to increase budget deficits, passing on to future generations the cost of running today’s welfare states.

a pandemic of fear

Is Covid-19 a serious thing? NO I am not a doctor but I say NO . I saw enough. It can kill some people yes.

1,6 Million die each year of Diarrhea Diseases

2000 so far of Coronavirus

let's stop the world because of Coronavirus

This officially started on the 24th of January but it took several days /weeks to reach Europe. This is fast???

apparently only sick and old people dye like the FLU (less numbers)

The Governments are taking the opportunity to do more, more governments more control more checks more spending more everything

To me this is a joke

I was here in Portugal when there was the Mad Cow disease where no one eat BEEF there was panic. How many people died of MAD COW disease? ZERO

Of course if people think this is a serious thing This is a serious thing.

There is a lot of people (Journalists that want the worse)

Look what Ed yardeni Says !

“Extreme government responses aimed at containing the virus, while effective, will create a pandemic of fear, increasing the risk of a global recession and bear market in stocks,” Yardeni writes. Yardeni had previously identified 65 “panic attacks” during the bull market and believes the coronavirus may have the dubious honor of being the 66th. While taking effort not to minimize the suffering of those afflicted and killed by the virus, Yardeni notes that more people have died from the flu this year, and that more than 80% of coronavirus cases are said to be mild.

Sorry for the language I try now to use it. I believe I can express myself without Cursing

The market will continue up with the normal periodic panics

We are in a periodic panic. The only thing that could ruin the Bull besides a serious recession (It's very possible) is inflation. There is no inflation, no yields up no competition to equities.

let's monitor the recession. I think it's very possible

Get a shopping list and enjoy the SALE. This shall pass as usual

BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE WE ARE GOING DOWN MORE short term ..... But for a medium term perspective just stay the course. IF you don't want big emotions just sell the market and relax .

there no Sure things but I thing Short term treasuries will keep going up

From the WSJ
Why Do the Biggest Companies Keep Getting Bigger? It’s How They Spend on Tech

Your suspicions are correct: The biggest companies in every field are pulling away from their peers faster than ever, sucking up the lion’s share of revenue, profits and productivity gains.

Something has changed a bit, the big companies are killing the small ones. Look at the line Size. small-large keeps going down. Regulation helps the big guys because it's cheaper to face the costs of regulation for a huge company. If you invest 10% of sales in R&D the big guy....If you spend in marketing 10% of your sales..... There is a limit where the big and fat guy starts to get lazy and slow but I don't see that happening. This movement is good for USA because some of the biggest companies in the world are there.

I would like nuclear fusion to become a practical power source. It would provide an inexhaustible supply of energy, without pollution or global warming.

Stephen Hawking

Nuclear energy offers a clean, abundant source of baseload energy (non-intermittent and with low variable costs) with a better safety record than any other source, and it is almost essential in the context of the electrification of the global vehicle fleet in any realistic scenario in the long term.
Fernado Bernad, AZ Valor

“Because normal human activity is worse for nature than the greatest nuclear accident in history.”
― Martin Cruz Smith

The Idea that the world is discontinuing nuclear is just stupid. Only someone with an agenda (something to gain) can speak on it.