Historic Buying Opportunity

Friday, March 06, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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This time is different? NO 

Next week can be down , most probably

one year from now we will be at high time highs yes

Man will conquer the Corona very soon. no doubt of that. The world will be a better world after Corona. And a more safe world. The Virus has the days numbered.

Why is the market diving?

Friday, February 28, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Is it the virus? No the virus is not so bad at all. It's because the market (equities) is pricing in a recession. That is it

Normally in a recession markets fall between 20% and 50%. 2008 56% in 2000 49% etc....

From Charles GAVE excellent piece yesterday

As Frédéric Bastiat never tired of saying, economics is all about “what is seen, and what is not seen.” In recent years, what markets have seen is the rise of profit margins permitted by globalization, and the adoption of the platform company model. What markets have not seen so clearly is the rise in fragility that came with the optimization of supply chains: fragility as supply chains became ever more dependent on China; political fragility as Western workers (and voters) felt increasingly squeezed out; and financial fragility as Western governments continue to increase budget deficits, passing on to future generations the cost of running today’s welfare states.

MAD Cow disease II

Thursday, February 27, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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a pandemic of fear


Is Covid-19 a serious thing?  NO I am not a doctor but I say NO . I saw enough. It can kill some people yes.

1,6 Million die each year of Diarrhea Diseases

2000 so far of Coronavirus

let's stop the world because of Coronavirus

This officially started on the 24th of January but it took several days /weeks to reach Europe. This is fast??? 

apparently only sick and old people dye like the FLU (less numbers) 

The Governments are taking the opportunity to do more, more governments more control more checks more spending more everything

To me this is a joke

I was here in Portugal when there was the Mad Cow disease where no one eat BEEF there was panic. How many people died of MAD COW disease? ZERO 

Of course if people think this is a serious thing This is a serious thing.

There is a lot of people (Journalists that want the worse) 

Look what Ed yardeni Says ! 

“Extreme government responses aimed at containing the virus, while effective, will create a pandemic of fear, increasing the risk of a global recession and bear market in stocks,” Yardeni writes. Yardeni had previously identified 65 “panic attacks” during the bull market and believes the coronavirus may have the dubious honor of being the 66th. While taking effort not to minimize the suffering of those afflicted and killed by the virus, Yardeni notes that more people have died from the flu this year, and that more than 80% of coronavirus cases are said to be mild.

Too many F words but useful

Wednesday, February 26, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Sorry for the language I try now to use it. I believe I can express myself without Cursing

This too shall pass.

Wednesday, February 26, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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The market will continue up with the normal periodic panics

We are in a periodic panic. The only thing that could ruin the Bull besides a serious recession (It's very possible) is inflation. There is no inflation, no yields up no competition to equities.

let's monitor the recession. I think it's very possible

 Get a shopping list and enjoy the SALE. This shall pass as usual

BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE WE ARE GOING DOWN MORE short term ..... But for a medium term perspective just stay the course. IF you don't want big emotions just sell the market and relax .

there no Sure things but I thing Short term treasuries will keep going up

Small is not Beautiful

Wednesday, February 19, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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From the WSJ
Why Do the Biggest Companies Keep Getting Bigger? It’s How They Spend on Tech

 Your suspicions are correct: The biggest companies in every field are pulling away from their peers faster than ever, sucking up the lion’s share of revenue, profits and productivity gains.


Something has changed a bit, the big companies are killing the small ones. Look at the line Size. small-large keeps going down. Regulation helps the big guys because it's cheaper to face the costs of regulation for a huge company. If you invest 10% of sales in R&D the big guy....If you spend in marketing 10% of your sales..... There is a limit where the big and fat guy starts to get lazy and slow but I don't see that happening. This movement is good for USA because some of the biggest companies in the world are there.

An inexhaustible supply of energy, without pollution or global warming.

Friday, February 14, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Nuclear energy offers a clean, abundant source of baseload energy (non-intermittent and with low variable costs) with a better safety record than any other source, and it is almost essential in the context of the electrification of the global vehicle fleet in any realistic scenario in the long term.
Fernado Bernad, AZ Valor


“Because normal human activity is worse for nature than the greatest nuclear accident in history.”
― Martin Cruz Smith 


The Idea that the world is discontinuing nuclear is just stupid. Only someone with an agenda (something to gain) can speak on it.

500 million transactions errors Zero !

Thursday, February 13, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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You Will Not Grow Until You Learn to Tolerate Discomfort

Tuesday, February 11, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Discomfort may be a doorway; don’t run from it
― Joseph Deitch, Elevate: An Essential Guide to Life

“Fatigue, discomfort, discouragement are merely symptoms of effort.”
― Morgan Freeman 


I am not a No pain No gain Guy, I  know that it works, yes i know that in sports you have to create disruption in your body and them to do the normal is very easy. I know this. It's totally true. However in endurance sports the Constance of training and consistency also works and I don't have horrible workouts. Since i have a coach I train less extreme , less discomfort and better results. But I am a guy that can train easy and in the big day I do much better than in training.

Perhaps there is an alternative way that is Focus and repetition and you grow just by repetition. If you want results fast, just be a bit crazy and sustain some discomfort. I read Elon Musk bio, this guy sustained a lot of personal discomfort. Even in sales this is true. Just stay the course. Persist. 

The Comfortable Life is Killing you

Tuesday, February 11, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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From Erik Rittenberry


https://medium.com/@erikrittenberry/the-comfortable-life-is-killing-you-61cae61622e7


Of course comfort life is killing everybody, you don't walk you don't run you don't experience hunger and you don't want to be sick and lay in bet time to time. You need to expose yourself to cold and to nature. I need it big time. When I am out for a bike ride at 7h30 it's freezing cold but after a while everything is beautiful. last Saturday we started our ride under the rain but after a while it got better and we made a good day. 120 km it was a very good day.

just relax and don't wish the world to be perfect. Just enjoy the here and now. have a great day. walk for 1 hour today.

What is this Blog About?

Wednesday, January 29, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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I don't know perhaps the people who visit it can say better than me but I have a few ideas that keep coming over and over.

1.Capitalism is the only system that makes people happy. Socialism is not a system society is destroyed (Venezuela etc....). To treat people like weak and vulnerable that must be helped never works.

2.The Good old days were no Good

3.Eat less, eat very little if you can. Zero Sugar.

4.Best thing for the brain is exercise, physical exercise is the best.Brain exercise a distant 2nd best.

5.Eat meat, be like a MASAI, meat & Exercise. 

6.All this radical ideas of changing what is working is just stupid. I am a conservative.

7.Have a philosophy of whatever comes it's ok. If you have this view of life you will be happy. Anything and everything don't make plans just enjoy and adapt.If things change it's ok never try to go back. it's over let's move on.

8.In my business some people confuse past experience is no guarantee of future results which is partially true with past experience does not matter. It matters a lot. In fact recent results are a great indication what is coming next.

9."In three words I can sum up everything I've learned about life: it goes on."

Robert Frost

10.It doesn't matter. Most of the things don't matter at all. It's just noise.Enjoy. Stop listening to news.

11.The person who works hard and is organized (FOCUS) normally does better in life than the high IQ  smart person. Don't over complicate things.

All time low !

Friday, January 24, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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The price you pay must make a difference

My dog is never sick

Wednesday, January 22, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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My Dog is never sick. only eats Dog Food no leftovers, runs like crazy and I never have to go  the vet with him. he is 5 years old.


 “Brute animals are the most healthy, and they are exposed to all weather, and of men, those are healthiest who are the most exposed.”
― Thomas Jefferson 

How to beat the SPX

Wednesday, January 22, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Example

There are only 2 companies in the world
Company A & Company B
The fair value of both companies is 100
Company A trades at 250 and company B at 50.
In the SPX company A has a weight of 250/300 =83% and company B 50/300  17%

World normalizes and company A and B return to their fair value of 100

Company A has a return of -150/250=-60%
Company B has a return of +100%

equal weight gains at market weight , equal weight gains at SPX

When there are a lot of flows into indexing it's possible that company A gets even more overvalued than company B. YES it is happening now and it happen in 1999.

how to solve this problem?

We have a system than gives Risk parity weights and that mitigates this problem.

contact us if you want to know more

Geral@lisbonfamilyoffice.pt

Things people undervalue until it's gone

Sunday, January 19, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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I like this post from Michael I would add 2 more items

To be in charge of your agenda
To be able to walk . This one is essential, I have seen people that lost vision but they get back to be what they were very soon. If you lose your ability to walk the end is near. 

In case you miss I am here! 36b

Sunday, January 19, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Something is right in the US banking

This is a surprise to me

Sunday, January 19, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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There is zero correlation between the distance of the S&P vs 200 day moving average and the next 20 day returns! Period.

Something strange in the GOLD market

Friday, January 17, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Last decade’s gold bull market, which lasted 10 years and saw the price of gold rise almost seven-fold, was dominated by buyers from the East — primarily from China and India.............................................

Are we beginning to see the return of the western interest in the gold markets? We believe that we are. Tracking the accumulation of gold and silver through their respective physical ETFs is a good way to gauge the movement. The 17 physical gold ETFs we follow have shown consistent accumulations throughout 2019. By our calculation, they have accumulated 40 tonnes of metal in Q1, 59 tonnes in Q2, and 214 tonnes in Q3. The accumulations continue into Q4. In the first three weeks of October, another 35 tonnes was accumulated. For all of 2019, physical gold ETFs have accumulated 350 tonnes of metal and total holdings now stands at 2,560 tonnes— almost equal to their 2012 peak.



Almost no one has GOLD in the western countries , is a barbaric relic. If the people with money in the world (Europe & US)  get interested in Gold we will have a real Bull market. Forgot 30 German bonds with negative yield.

Life before Bread

Friday, January 17, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Let food be thy medicine and medicine be thy food
― Hippocrates 

Fog

Friday, January 17, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Bureaucrats creating chaos by seeking stability.

Wednesday, January 15, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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From Nassim Taleb Twiter 

Angers Bridge

Monday, January 13, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Generally speaking, decentralized systems are more stable than centralized ones. 
Seth Levine


When an army marches across a bridge, the soldiers often "break step" so that their rhythmic marching will not start resonating throughout the bridge. A sufficiently large army marching at just the right cadence could set the deadly vibration into motion.


The idea or organizing, merging, consolidation, uniformization, regulation etc...makes the world very fragile. Something robust must be diverse.

If one compartment is compromised the rest of the ship will survive only if there is compartments.

if everybody does the same thing when one is sick everybody is.

Big things are very fragile.



Angers Bridge, also called the Basse-Chaîne Bridge, was a suspension bridge over the Maine River in Angers, France. It was designed by Joseph Chaley and Bordillon, and built between 1836 and 1839. The bridge collapsed on 16 April 1850, while a battalion of French soldiers was marching across it, killing over 200 of them.

What do you do here?

Sunday, January 12, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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I am not going to short semis! no way it can go more.....

The way I think is AMD just broke the 2000 top now it can explode up ..................

Why this could be just the beginning?

Saturday, January 04, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Because we have been in a sideways market for 16 years and came just out of the box.

this is the stock bond ratio

Optimism is the only realism!

Thursday, January 02, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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“For myself I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use to be anything else.”
― Winston S. Churchill 


I do have conversations/interactions in my Blog,LinkedIn, investors, clients  etc... with thousands of people every year. What can I say...............

People are under invested they haven't participated in the rally

the press with the inequality, the capitalism is broken rhetoric, climate emergency (Not global warming anymore because the seas are cooling) just makes people feel that something bad is about to happen.  If you want to have a good life just disconnect, just don't be online just cut the noise. Just look what is working and copy. Enjoy the nature, the animals and do some sport. Cut the crap. cut the news. Drink some hot tea.

Investors Bail on Stock Market Rally, Fleeing Funds at Record Pace

In what may be the best year for stocks since 2013, investors have exited in droves

Buy but don't buy at any price. But buy. The only sensible thing to do is to have equities but don't expect to be positive every year.


Best Buy (BBY) and Amazon (AMZN) are two giant retailers in the US. Over the past seven years, Best Buy’s revenue and net income stayed flat, while earnings-per-share (EPS) rose by 3.47% per year (due to buybacks) – a poor performance to say the least. By comparison Amazon’s revenue, net income, and EPS grew by 25%, 48.6%, and 46.8% per year annualized – one of the most successful business records in the history of the world. Best Buy closed stores and shrank its footprint while Amazon entered and dominated new and exciting areas of business, such as cloud computing and video streaming. Given these statistics you might be surprised that Best Buy delivered a better return to shareholders over the past seven years than Amazon. Shocked? Yet, the annualized rate of return over the past seven years has been 33.03% for Amazon and 36.65% for Best Buy. 7 How can this be? Simple: Best Buy started out with an extremely low valuation and extremely low expectations, while the expectations for Amazon were very high.

Lukasz R. Tomicki, CFA, MBA
Portfolio Manager
LRT Capital Management, LLC