Thought of the Day

This time is different? NO

Next week can be down , most probably

one year from now we will be at high time highs yes

Man will conquer the Corona very soon. no doubt of that. The world will be a better world after Corona. And a more safe world. The Virus has the days numbered.

Is it the virus? No the virus is not so bad at all. It's because the market (equities) is pricing in a recession. That is it

Normally in a recession markets fall between 20% and 50%. 2008 56% in 2000 49% etc....

From Charles GAVE excellent piece yesterday

As Frédéric Bastiat never tired of saying, economics is all about “what is seen, and what is not seen.” In recent years, what markets have seen is the rise of profit margins permitted by globalization, and the adoption of the platform company model. What markets have not seen so clearly is the rise in fragility that came with the optimization of supply chains: fragility as supply chains became ever more dependent on China; political fragility as Western workers (and voters) felt increasingly squeezed out; and financial fragility as Western governments continue to increase budget deficits, passing on to future generations the cost of running today’s welfare states.

a pandemic of fear

Is Covid-19 a serious thing? NO I am not a doctor but I say NO . I saw enough. It can kill some people yes.

1,6 Million die each year of Diarrhea Diseases

2000 so far of Coronavirus

let's stop the world because of Coronavirus

This officially started on the 24th of January but it took several days /weeks to reach Europe. This is fast???

apparently only sick and old people dye like the FLU (less numbers)

The Governments are taking the opportunity to do more, more governments more control more checks more spending more everything

To me this is a joke

I was here in Portugal when there was the Mad Cow disease where no one eat BEEF there was panic. How many people died of MAD COW disease? ZERO

Of course if people think this is a serious thing This is a serious thing.

There is a lot of people (Journalists that want the worse)

Look what Ed yardeni Says !

“Extreme government responses aimed at containing the virus, while effective, will create a pandemic of fear, increasing the risk of a global recession and bear market in stocks,” Yardeni writes. Yardeni had previously identified 65 “panic attacks” during the bull market and believes the coronavirus may have the dubious honor of being the 66th. While taking effort not to minimize the suffering of those afflicted and killed by the virus, Yardeni notes that more people have died from the flu this year, and that more than 80% of coronavirus cases are said to be mild.

Sorry for the language I try now to use it. I believe I can express myself without Cursing

The market will continue up with the normal periodic panics

We are in a periodic panic. The only thing that could ruin the Bull besides a serious recession (It's very possible) is inflation. There is no inflation, no yields up no competition to equities.

let's monitor the recession. I think it's very possible

Get a shopping list and enjoy the SALE. This shall pass as usual

BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE WE ARE GOING DOWN MORE short term ..... But for a medium term perspective just stay the course. IF you don't want big emotions just sell the market and relax .

there no Sure things but I thing Short term treasuries will keep going up

From the WSJ
Why Do the Biggest Companies Keep Getting Bigger? It’s How They Spend on Tech

Your suspicions are correct: The biggest companies in every field are pulling away from their peers faster than ever, sucking up the lion’s share of revenue, profits and productivity gains.

Something has changed a bit, the big companies are killing the small ones. Look at the line Size. small-large keeps going down. Regulation helps the big guys because it's cheaper to face the costs of regulation for a huge company. If you invest 10% of sales in R&D the big guy....If you spend in marketing 10% of your sales..... There is a limit where the big and fat guy starts to get lazy and slow but I don't see that happening. This movement is good for USA because some of the biggest companies in the world are there.

I would like nuclear fusion to become a practical power source. It would provide an inexhaustible supply of energy, without pollution or global warming.

Stephen Hawking

Nuclear energy offers a clean, abundant source of baseload energy (non-intermittent and with low variable costs) with a better safety record than any other source, and it is almost essential in the context of the electrification of the global vehicle fleet in any realistic scenario in the long term.
Fernado Bernad, AZ Valor

“Because normal human activity is worse for nature than the greatest nuclear accident in history.”
― Martin Cruz Smith

The Idea that the world is discontinuing nuclear is just stupid. Only someone with an agenda (something to gain) can speak on it.

Image result for new nuclear plants under construction 2020

Discomfort may be a doorway; don’t run from it
― Joseph Deitch, Elevate: An Essential Guide to Life

“Fatigue, discomfort, discouragement are merely symptoms of effort.”
― Morgan Freeman

I am not a No pain No gain Guy, I know that it works, yes i know that in sports you have to create disruption in your body and them to do the normal is very easy. I know this. It's totally true. However in endurance sports the Constance of training and consistency also works and I don't have horrible workouts. Since i have a coach I train less extreme , less discomfort and better results. But I am a guy that can train easy and in the big day I do much better than in training.

Perhaps there is an alternative way that is Focus and repetition and you grow just by repetition. If you want results fast, just be a bit crazy and sustain some discomfort. I read Elon Musk bio, this guy sustained a lot of personal discomfort. Even in sales this is true. Just stay the course. Persist.

Society tames the wolf into a dog.
And man is the most domesticated
animal of all.

~ Nietzsche

From Erik Rittenberry

Freud defined depression as anger turned inwards. There’s some truth to this for sure, but I think the great existential psychologist, Rollo May, defined it more accurately — “Depression is the inability to construct a future.”

And anxiety simply comes from, as Rollo May also pointed out, “not being able to know the world you’re in, not being able to orient yourself in your own existence.”

https://medium.com/@erikrittenberry/the-comfortable-life-is-killing-you-61cae61622e7

Of course comfort life is killing everybody, you don't walk you don't run you don't experience hunger and you don't want to be sick and lay in bet time to time. You need to expose yourself to cold and to nature. I need it big time. When I am out for a bike ride at 7h30 it's freezing cold but after a while everything is beautiful. last Saturday we started our ride under the rain but after a while it got better and we made a good day. 120 km it was a very good day.

just relax and don't wish the world to be perfect. Just enjoy the here and now. have a great day. walk for 1 hour today.

I don't know perhaps the people who visit it can say better than me but I have a few ideas that keep coming over and over.

1.Capitalism is the only system that makes people happy. Socialism is not a system society is destroyed (Venezuela etc....). To treat people like weak and vulnerable that must be helped never works.

2.The Good old days were no Good

3.Eat less, eat very little if you can. Zero Sugar.

4.Best thing for the brain is exercise, physical exercise is the best.Brain exercise a distant 2nd best.

5.Eat meat, be like a MASAI, meat & Exercise.

6.All this radical ideas of changing what is working is just stupid. I am a conservative.

7.Have a philosophy of whatever comes it's ok. If you have this view of life you will be happy. Anything and everything don't make plans just enjoy and adapt.If things change it's ok never try to go back. it's over let's move on.

8.In my business some people confuse past experience is no guarantee of future results which is partially true with past experience does not matter. It matters a lot. In fact recent results are a great indication what is coming next.

9."In three words I can sum up everything I've learned about life: it goes on."

Robert Frost

10.It doesn't matter. Most of the things don't matter at all. It's just noise.Enjoy. Stop listening to news.

11.The person who works hard and is organized (FOCUS) normally does better in life than the high IQ smart person. Don't over complicate things.

The price you pay must make a difference

My Dog is never sick. only eats Dog Food no leftovers, runs like crazy and I never have to go the vet with him. he is 5 years old.

“Brute animals are the most healthy, and they are exposed to all weather, and of men, those are healthiest who are the most exposed.”
― Thomas Jefferson

Example

There are only 2 companies in the world
Company A & Company B
The fair value of both companies is 100
Company A trades at 250 and company B at 50.
In the SPX company A has a weight of 250/300 =83% and company B 50/300 17%

World normalizes and company A and B return to their fair value of 100

Company A has a return of -150/250=-60%
Company B has a return of +100%

equal weight gains at market weight , equal weight gains at SPX

When there are a lot of flows into indexing it's possible that company A gets even more overvalued than company B. YES it is happening now and it happen in 1999.

how to solve this problem?

We have a system than gives Risk parity weights and that mitigates this problem.

contact us if you want to know more

Geral@lisbonfamilyoffice.pt

I like this post from Michael I would add 2 more items

To be in charge of your agenda
To be able to walk . This one is essential, I have seen people that lost vision but they get back to be what they were very soon. If you lose your ability to walk the end is near.

Something is right in the US banking

There is zero correlation between the distance of the S&P vs 200 day moving average and the next 20 day returns! Period.

Last decade’s gold bull market, which lasted 10 years and saw the price of gold rise almost seven-fold, was dominated by buyers from the East — primarily from China and India.............................................

Are we beginning to see the return of the western interest in the gold markets? We believe that we are. Tracking the accumulation of gold and silver through their respective physical ETFs is a good way to gauge the movement. The 17 physical gold ETFs we follow have shown consistent accumulations throughout 2019. By our calculation, they have accumulated 40 tonnes of metal in Q1, 59 tonnes in Q2, and 214 tonnes in Q3. The accumulations continue into Q4. In the first three weeks of October, another 35 tonnes was accumulated. For all of 2019, physical gold ETFs have accumulated 350 tonnes of metal and total holdings now stands at 2,560 tonnes— almost equal to their 2012 peak.

Almost no one has GOLD in the western countries , is a barbaric relic. If the people with money in the world (Europe & US) get interested in Gold we will have a real Bull market. Forgot 30 German bonds with negative yield.

Let food be thy medicine and medicine be thy food
― Hippocrates

Historic Buying Opportunity

Why is the market diving?

MAD Cow disease II

Too many F words but useful

This too shall pass.

Small is not Beautiful

An inexhaustible supply of energy, without pollution or global warming.

500 million transactions errors Zero !

You Will Not Grow Until You Learn to Tolerate Discomfort

The Comfortable Life is Killing you

What is this Blog About?

Robert Frost

All time low !

My dog is never sick

How to beat the SPX

Things people undervalue until it's gone

In case you miss I am here! 36b

This is a surprise to me

Something strange in the GOLD market

Life before Bread

Fog

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