Showing posts with label ABOUTME. Show all posts

Don't trade when you are in hollidays

No one has ever made their career in August, but plenty have lost it,” wrote Greg Coffey

In august markets are a bit more irrational than usual because a lot of people are off their desks. my advice, book your holidays also in august unless you are a long term investor and perhaps some good buying opportunities might come in the radar screen


if you are in holidays don't trade. i never trade anything outside the office. i had some bad experiences and now only make decisions with full information and rested.
Resultado de imagem para trading in the beach

holidays in the Mountains

i just spent one week in the Mountains in the tip of Portugal.

it's very relaxing without people just nature and wild horses. Always hot no morning fog like the beach and the prices are low. i read 4 books. 









Why i can't ride at 40 km an hour ?

Besides the fact that i am not so good like the pro's i don't ride in a peloton. To ride inside in the middle of the peloton a cyclist saves lot's of energy. i ride in a groups of 4 or 5!  not enough.


From Peter Attia Blog, I think most casual fans of cycling know that riding in a peloton can provide an energy savings, but this just floored me: “Practically speaking,” the article notes, “the energy savings is the equivalent of pedaling 9.3 miles per hour while actually flying down the road at 33.5 miles per hour” if you’re in the right spot. 







holidays are over !





So true

El ser humano tiene necesidad innata de dirigir su propria vida, de aprender y crear cosas nuevas, de mejorar, tanto a si mismo como al mundo que le rodea.

Aitor Zarate

i just read a book from Aitor and i would love to meet him one day. do anyone knows where i can find him?

He says in the book that he is not on the net , facebook etc.... It's a waste of time in his view . i agree i already have my mobile phone in silence during working hours.

I am working since 1987

I am working since 1987 (the pic below is from 2002!)
from that period until 2000 the markets had a good run but i didn't had capital, i din't had money to invest so i profited small. I didn't had a car, i just worked.
Manuel my first boy was born in 1999. Until that time I was just working 
after 2000 i made some good bonuses from 2000 until 2009 but the markets did't collaborate. I lost money but i didn't sell anything
in 2016 S &P was at the same level that it was in 2000 a big consolidation
Are we going to have another run like we had before 2000?


am i going to see another Bull market in my life?

No one knows but i thinks it's likely after difficulties easy times, i need easy times (they are never easy)

why? because after a difficult time 2000/2016 perhaps we are going to have easy times like 1982/2000 . it's just like that. the bull can feed itself. more money, more consumption, more m&A, more consolidation, more everything.

I THINK WE ENTERING IN A BULL other scenario is we are finishing one from the deeps of 2009 and we are going to end with an explosion up
Image result for ciovacco capital s&P 500 yearly



A coincidence !

I came across this in The Economist this month

Abraaj, a private-equity firm, files for provisional liquidation

The firm dipped into investor funds for its own corporate purposes........................A review from Deloitte, an auditor, concluded that it had covered its own expenses expenses with investors money from the health care fund and another.The money was replaced in the helth care fund but the other fund was left short of $95 million.



Abraaj Capital was the biggest private equity firm in the Middle East. They visited me in 2006 introduced by a European Investment Bank. I remember this meeting and kept the book (picture below) they gave me because the picture of the new fund was from Lisbon!

I asked them about the picture and they said its probably some bridge in the middle east. Not a big mistake but this bridge looks like the Vasco da Gama bridge in Lisbon. Even the painting blue & white is exactly the same. I didn't invest but i thought they were a bit careless.

To dip your hand in the investor funds is not careless it's criminal....




People don't care!




Saturday my wife was stuck in Nice (She attended the Cannes media week ). Strikes all over France, once finally inside the plane the airport handling guys hit the plane with the stairs and they had to go back to a hotel because the plane was damaged. Of course it takes hours to embark and disembark and to get the Hotel Voucher. Next day no food service because of another strike and the plane stayed in the Tarmac for 2 hours without water waiting for the controllers to give the green light. Why do European equities underperform? Because there is not a culture of delivering a service. People (public service) don’t care about the final client. I will short Europe anytime. Not all Europe UK is not like that and Switzerland too.

Sometimes I tell my kids it’s easy to do well in life, why because 90% of the people don’t care they don’t care the way they put dishes in the washing machine, they don’t care the way they make their bed, they don’t care the way they park the car. Lots of people need someone that comes after to fix the job.  If you care you are in the top 10% just like that. In Nice they don’t care.



Data obsessed

I think there are two ways to do well in the markets and in life.

a)to have one idea, one thesis that works and stick to it (buy good at ok price, big get bigger, buy low beta and leverage, momentum etc....)
b)Be data driven just look at the data and never of opinions or 3rd party analyses if the data points invert ......

the first way of doing business is much more difficult because you can have the wrong idea that really does not work

exemples

speak with managements
pay attention to TV
look at newspapers
gossip
pay attention to people that live from a salary


i am on the path to be data driven. but what data should i pay attention? only granular data. Thousands of data points.

in this pic i am near a TV but the only thing i look on TV is price action. 









yesterday amazing night




Aside from politics it was a great night. Roger waters says we need to resist! i don't want to resist i just want to enjoy what i already have it's enough. when i was young i just wanted to have a Porsche 911 but now i just want to have some time to ride my bike, read and play with my 3 year old kid! ahahah i can live without a 911 easy



Roger Waters




Yesterday I attended the Roger Waters concert in Lisbon. The guy is very critical to the world (the world is ruled by PIGS!). No one told him that the Good Old days where no good at all! Besides that most people he criticized are elected not dictators (I guess Putin is not freely elected). 

Very good concert. Amazing that this guy is 74 years old. Perhaps being very critical helps aging. always criticizing money but he is going to make 100 million in this Tour alone! He ended the concert with a flag (i guess it was Palestinian Flag) i don't think he wants to live or play in the Gaza strip!

He belongs to a group of people that profit from Capitalism but are always criticizing and bashing the free world.





Image result for roger waters lisboa altice arena

if neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you you = Buddhist !


IF you can keep your head when all about you 
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools: 

If you can make one heap of all your winnings 
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
' Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
if neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!

Rudyard Kipling's

2 Ideas for Today


Commit to being great, not just average. Any industry can be a painful profession for average and bottom performers, but massively rewarding for those that are great. Those that live, breathe and eat their profession, those that are obsessed, become great.

Grant Cardone



Bad Career Advice: Do What You Love and You'll Never Work a Day
Oh man, this one kills me. It’s so frequently repeated that hardly anyone questions its truth anymore. And the sad fact is this: If you do what you love for a living, you’ll probably end up loving it a little bit less.

Chrissy Scivicque, FORBES


I agree with this two thoughts my view is to be of service, do something that the world wants and needs and you will be fine. Do what you love just ruins what you love. I love to ride my bike but if i had to Chaperone groups of tourists at a sub par pace i would probably hate it.
a job it's a job and if you invest a bit one day you would love it (the other way around)


the view from my window this morning

enjoy a great day



I have a DOG

It is easier to prevent bad habits than to break them. 
Benjamin Franklin


Motivation is what gets you started. Habit is what keeps you going. 
Jim Ryun

I have a dog and of dogs are not like people. however all the things that started in a certain way became an habit and now are routine. He knows what to expect and is very happy i think! 

The bad habits he has now it's almost impossible to change.

i guess for a dog it's difficult to start bad and then change.

he does't eat human food from day one, now he doesn't circle the table while we eat
he is not allowed to enter the living room, now he stays outside even when i am not at home
he does his poop in a garden from day one and now he never poops in the walkway 
he only eats at daybreak and he is not eager for food all day
it's illegal but i never put a leash in the dog. now he just walks besides me everywhere


So for a dog or at least my dog it's very important what you do in the first days. Start well is my advice.

for me i think all the bad habits i have are a result of illness and lack of goals. as soon as i have a difficult goal in sports or in my job everything goes in to place. everything. i need to sleep more, i need tonot drink wine in the week days, diet, i get up before 6 am, i don't check email as often, cold showers etc...

be busy and everything gets in place!




Yesterday i visited PHOTO ARK !



Very nice exhibition! very peaceful experience.

A very good Day

Saturday i did the Troia Sagres. Thousands of people in the road.

200 km. Our Team did 36 km/h it was a good training.

here a small video at the start with some 6 degrees celsius. I am the last one to be seen with a white helmet






A sure way to prevent brain disease and alzheimer's

“The origin of brain disease is in many cases predominantly dietary. Although several factors play into the genesis and progression of brain disorders, to a large extent numerous neurological afflictions often reflect the mistake of consuming too many carbs and too few healthy fats.”
David Perlmutter, Grain Brain: The Surprising Truth about Wheat, Carbs, and Sugar--Your Brain's Silent Killers



“The simple act of moving your body will do more for your brain than any riddle, math equation, mystery book, or even thinking itself.”
David Perlmutter, Grain Brain: The Surprising Truth about Wheat, Carbs, and Sugar--Your Brain's Silent Killers


“U.S. Army researcher Dr. F. Curtis Dohan was among the first scientists to notice a relationship between postwar Europe’s food scarcity (and, consequently, a lack of wheat in the diet) and considerably fewer hospitalizations for schizophrenia.”
David Perlmutter, Grain Brain: The Surprising Truth about Wheat, Carbs, and Sugar--Your Brain's Silent Killers



Sugar is the new tobacco. 
Cynthia Kenyon


I try to not eat as much sugar, but it's so hard in our American diet to do that... It's hard to completely avoid. 
Tom Brady


Even slight elevations in blood sugar have been shown to increase the risk of Alzheimer's disease. 
David Perlmutter

Image result for no sugar

First driving lesson !


Yes it's free !

“I have never let my schooling interfere with my education.”
Mark Twain


“Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.”
Mahatma Gandhi


“It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop.”
Confucius



What online technology does for business schools is very substantially expand their market to people who don’t take time out from their career to come back to business school


Rick Levin CEO of Coursera


I already took a online course in Coursera at The University of San Diego, it's free you only pay the diploma if you want one. One of the perks of online education is that you learn from the best teachers in the world and if you were attending a traditional University you have the local teacher not the best in the world.


When I finished the Online course you get this email

Ready to learn something new?

Francisco Carneiro, congratulations!

Completing an online course is no simple endeavor. It requires time, dedication, and commitment, so when we say "Congratulations" - we mean it! Take a moment to reflect on your hard work and enjoy your completion of Learning How to Learn: Powerful mental tools to help you master tough subjects. You’ve earned it.



You completed Learning How to Learn: Powerful mental tools to help you master tough subjects!
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Many completers formalize their achievement with a Course Certificate unique to them and their accomplishment. If you think you'd like to share this achievement with colleagues, friends, or potential employers one day, we recommend getting the certificate now. It's a tangible way to communicate your educational background, work ethic, and personal ambitions to others.

Deep Blue meditation in Mozambique

Just came from Mozambique from a diving trip ! Loved the country.

Cheap
Hot Weather
Friendly people, very educated they don’t have the habit or cursing
Not a lot to buy so no presents for my kids
Very good diving conditions

Tofo is also very good for surfers 




Francisco
@carneirao101