Equities do look cheap, relative to bonds, because bonds are incredibly expensive

Wednesday, May 30, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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At present, as I have said before, equities look cheaper versus bonds than they have in half a century. This means, more or less by definition, that the first cult of the equity is over. It also provides a necessary condition for the beginning of a new one.
But it is not a sufficient condition. Equities do look cheap, relative to bonds, because bonds are incredibly expensive. All else equal, that should mean people start selling bonds – and buy at least some stocks with the money they release.
But talk to fund managers, and it is obvious that they are buying bonds not because they are in the grip of a cult or bubble mentality, but because regulations force them to do so. This is financial repression – to deal with the debt they took on to quell the credit crisis, governments are forcing us all to lend to them at ruinously low rates. While artificial incentives to buy bonds stay in force, bonds could stay expensive – and equities could stay relatively cheap.
John Authers, FT
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7e86e80a-a58e-11e1-a77b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1w92ZRi4z
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A government which robs Peter to pay Paul, can always count on the support of Paul.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Natural Chemotheraphy

Tuesday, May 29, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 2 Comments

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Almost all foods that we eat, after being digested, absorbed, and metabolized, release either an acid or an alkaline base (bicarbonate) into blood. Grains, fish, meat, poultry, shellfish, cheese, milk, and salt all produce acid, so the introduction and dramatic rise in our consumption of these foods meant that the typical Western diet became more acid-producing. Consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables decreased, which further made the Western diet acid-producing.
Why Do People Try Alkaline Diets?
According to some alternative practitioners, the shift to an acid-producing diet is the cause of a number of chronic diseases. Some practitioners recommend the alkaline diet if a person has the following symptoms and other illnesses have been ruled out.
·                        Lack of energy
·                        Excessive mucous production
·                        Nasal congestion
·                        Frequent colds and flu
·                        Anxiety, nervousness, irritability
·                        Ovarian cysts, polycystic ovaries, benign breast cysts
·                        Headache
Although conventional doctors do believe that increasing consumption of fruit and vegetables and reducing one's intake of meat, salt, and refined grains is beneficial to health, most conventional doctors do not believe that an acid-producing diet is the foundation of chronic illness. In conventional medicine, there is evidence, however, that alkaline diets may help prevent the formation of calcium kidney stones, osteoporosis, and age-related muscle wasting.
http://altmedicine.about.com/od/popularhealthdiets/a/alkalinediet.htm

PS My view is that if you folow an Alkaline diet you will feel lighter and better.
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Persistence

Sunday, May 27, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Many of life's failures are men who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up


Thomas Edison


PS Persistence is one of the best qualities to have because if you stick with what you are doing pretty soon you have more experience and more practice than everybody else. If you stick and don’t drift you probably will be good and people love to do what they do well.  So the point is to cross that period that you are seeing no results and you are working big time. Stick to it, it will change.
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Agriculture is responsible for 70 percent of human water use globally

Friday, May 25, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Agriculture is responsible for 70 percent of human water use globally
Can Soil Sensors Save Georgia Waterways from Drought?
An innovative effort would embed sensors in agricultural fields in a bid to cut down on irrigation--saving farmers money and preserving water for endangered species


PS This article came in the last email from Scientific American Magazine. However this is no new research.

There is a Portuguese company, www.hidrosoph.com,   that already implemented a smart irrigation systems some years ago, in Portugal, USA and South Africa.

Even if you don’t live in ISRAEL I think this technology looks useful, it saves up to 50% of the water in a year. Yes it's 50%!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCMiZOgIl5Q&feature=relmfu


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2Jfnn3UdNw&feature=player_embedded
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FT cover – declaring the death of equities

Thursday, May 24, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Some times this can mark some turning points!

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If you can get it, chances are you don’t want it

Thursday, May 24, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Retail investors should be circumspect (to put it politely) of any offering they’re able to get their hands on. If you can get it, chances are you don’t want it

Invictus

PS I think the good investments you make are things that are moving from the lower left to the upper right and you have to pay a lot to get in. We have some investments in Hedge Funds that buy companied cheap but they buy a big position, get into the board, change the CEO, and move things around. You can buy a dog if your plan is to change the dog!

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Greece will stay in the Euro

Wednesday, May 23, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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To buy time, Europe has substantially raised its official lending to Greece. Including the loans already extended to Greece and the TARGET-2 liabilities, Greece’s EMU partners could be on the hook for EUR350 billion. The longer Europe supports Greece, the bigger this figure grows. Thus, I would argue that the longer Greece is supported, the harsher the shock would be when Greece leaves the EMU. Again, from this perspective, Mr Tsipras’ bet is probably right, that Europe might blink first.

Stephen L Jen (London)

PS I go with Stephen Jen, one very smart guy. I think Europe is already up to the neck in Greek debt (350 b). Germany will blink first. However we could have some more noise until the Greek elections, the market’s don’t like uncertainty.
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Urban Myth

Tuesday, May 22, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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It looks like the prosperity of Germany was not done on the back of exporting BMW to Portugal and Greece! I think the prosperity of Germany was built on the back of very good products (on the eyes of the prospects) and very strong Brands. To me the best thing Germany has is the quality of the Made in Germany tag. People trust this brand. I had a Mercedes and the car is reliable and when i had an electrical problem on the road, they sent a car within one hour with a maintainence guy that fixed the problem. I had to pay zero! I guess you only offer this service if you trust that it's not going to be in demand.


The ideia that you can do well without good products (Good products are products the prospect think are good products) in this world where there is too much of everything is not realistic.



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Growth-versus-austerity debate

Tuesday, May 22, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Daniel Gros gave a useful reminder that the growth-versus-austerity debate in Europe is not new. About 15 years ago, Europe had a similar episode: ‘In the early 1990’s, when the plans for the European Monetary Union (EMU) were drawn up, Germany insisted on a "Stability Pact" as a price for giving up the Deutschmark. When Europe fell into a deep recession after 1995, attention shifted to growth, and the "Stability Pact" became the "Stability and Growth Pact" (SGP) when the European Council adopted a resolution on "growth and employment" in 1997. The need for growth is as strong today as it was 15 years ago. In Spain, the unemployment rate then was as high as it is now, and in Italy, it was higher in 1996 than it is today. Politically, too, the background is the same: the "G" was inserted into the SGP under pressure primarily from a new French administration (at the time headed by Jacques Chirac). Today, France has again given the political impetus for a shift to growth.’ (6) What Europe is going through, the US will need to confront in the not-too-distant future, beyond economists and pundits debating growth-versus-austerity.　 The Congress and the White House will need to face the impending ‘fiscal cliff’ and debt sustainability.　 I don’t know anyone who is ‘anti-growth.’　The issue is whether economic growth should be bought through fiscal spending, as has been the case in Japan for 15 years. I don’t think Japan is a good model for emulation. Every time the growth-versus-austerity debate came up in Japan, the growth camp always won the debate.

My Thoughts on Currencies
Stephen L Jen (London)
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We find heavier people in cold climates

Tuesday, May 22, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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When we consider populations living in different climates, we find heavier people in cold climates, and skinnier people in warm climates. These people instinctively eat to suit their climate. Raw seal blubber in the North, and grains and fish in the tropics.
Since the 60's or so, we now have a vastly powerful way to create our own summer climate. Air Conditioning. We like A/C because we don't have to sweat. Why be hot inside or outside, when we can be in the cool inside.
Air Conditioning helps lower our core body temperature, which in turn ups the instinctive drive for more calories. Excercise increases core temperature. Ice cold drinks lower it. After a hot day laying on the beach, how many people want a huge suggary/fatty/starchy meal? Maybe a little salad will suffice. Long cold day in the biting cold skating or tobogganing, and I want hot cocoa, with marshmallows, lots of marshmallows, and I want it now!
I'd love to see a correlation of a graphic of obesity vs. some measure of the degree of cooling by A/C.


http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=high-and-dry-in-the-food&WT.mc_id=SA_WR_20120516
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Copying is at least as important as being innovative

Monday, May 21, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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For businesses, being good at copying is at least as important as being innovative

EVERY year Les Wexner, the owner of Victoria’s Secret, a lingerie retailer, takes a month off to travel the world looking for other companies’ ideas to adopt. Limited Brands, his clothing group, seeks lawful inspiration from firms ranging from airlines to consumer-goods manufacturers. Mr Wexner’s philosophy is that business should celebrate imitation.
That is almost a heresy. Politicians and countless awards ceremonies extol innovation’s role in economic growth. Businesses are told to innovate or die. Imitators are cast as the bad guys: “The corporation that is first…has an opportunity to manufacture with the highest frequency and in the most desirable markets,” proclaims the boss of Burkett & Randle in “Duplicity”, a 2009 corporate thriller starring Julia Roberts. The firm duly triumphs over the evil rival which tries to copy its supposed cure for baldness.
In the real world, companies copy and succeed. The iPod was not the first digital-music player; nor was the iPhone the first smartphone or the iPad the first tablet. Apple imitated others’ products but made them far more appealing
http://www.economist.com/node/21554500

PS1 It’s better to have an ok product with a very good sales/marketing, than to have a very good product with an ok Sales/marketing.
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When sorrows come.........

Friday, May 18, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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When sorrows come, they come not in a single spies but in battalions

William Shakespeare, Hamlet, Act 4, Scene 5

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German Real Estate

Thursday, May 17, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I think this look's good. I am thinking how to do it. The Money stays in Germany and in real Estate.
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Status Anxiety

Thursday, May 17, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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What was the outcome from publishing your book that pleases you the most?

The book has helped to make the concept seem universal. After all, even Bill Gates will suffer from status anxiety. Why? Because he compares himself to his own peer group. We all do this, and that’s why we end up feeling we lack things even though we’re so much better off than people ever were in the past. It’s not that we’re especially ungrateful, it’s just we don’t judge ourselves in relation to people far away. We cannot be cheered for long by how prosperous we are in historical or geographical terms. We will only take ourselves to be fortunate when we have as much as, or more than, the people we grow up with, work alongside, have as friends and identify with in the public realm. That’s why the best way to feel successful is to choose friends who are just that little bit less successful than you…


Alain de Botton, the most-read philosopher alive, has decided to answer some questions about his wonderful book Status Anxiety. The book focuses on the anxiety prevalent in many modern societies to be Number One. It also shows how this can be a win-lose socially dysfunctional game, as your social position is always dependent on where others stand.


 http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/there-are-free-lunches/201205/philosopher-alain-de-botton-status-anxiety

Status Anxiety

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Thought of the Day

Wednesday, May 16, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Believe in what you see and not in what you believe.

 Dave Landry
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Strong man's house

Thursday, May 03, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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In fact, no one can enter a strong man's house and carry off his possessions unless he first ties up the strong man. Then he can rob his house.

Mark 3:27


PS Saturday I will start my 3rd Transportugal Bike race. 9 days and 1150 km of Mountain Bike with 24,500 mts of Vertical Climb.

If you want to follow the race I will have a tracker on my camelback and you can follow me on the website of the Race. I hope to enjoy this week of exercise, adventure and emotion. One of the good things about this race is that you ride alone without seeing anyone for hours, you can really relax your head. When i am doing a great effort i can't relly have deep thoughts, only simple ideas like water, food, etc... This is relaxing.

This year I want to finish and try to improve the time from last year, 58 hours is the time to beat. Less than 55 hours is a top 10 place, i think.

http://www.trans-portugal.com/indexIng.htm



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Prozac

Wednesday, May 02, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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So Alberto called his doctor, obtained a prescription, and became another one of the six million Americans taking this widely used prescription medicine. The results were spectacular. Three days later, he could run again.

“I was ecstatic,” Salazar said. “I was shocked. Paul had turned me on to a magic pill. Before Prozac, the fastest pace I could run was about 5:20 per mile, and even doing that killed me. Three days after I began taking Prozac, I run a workout of three 1-mile repeats. I ran each of them in 5 minutes comfortably. A few days later, I did a 6 by 1 mile workout at a 4:42 per mile……..When I was running well, my obsession absorbed my depression. But now that I wasn’t winning races and constantly getting faster, the depression had all the room in the world to grow.
Instead of making me happy, running made me miserable. I never told my doctor about this_ he prescribed Prozac for my glandular imbalance. But as soon as I start taking it, I felt amazingly better. I stopped having death fantasies. It was like I didn’t really know haw bad I had felt until I start feeling good.


From Duel in the Sun, The Greatest Marathon ever, Alberto Salazar vs Dick Beardsley in 1982 Boston.

PS Albert Salazar was the best ever US marathon runner and won everything between 1980 and 1982. After 1982 he declined without a reason and the results disappeared. After several years of inactivity, in 1994 Salazar won the prestigious 90 km (56 mi) Comrades Marathon (It’s a Ultramarathon). Salazar stated that Fluoxetine (Prozac) played a role in motivating him to succeed in professional running again. He said more, Prozac had a widely effect on his well being. To me this story is amazing. In three days he was another man!!



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