If you can avoid don't let people rob you

Friday, June 28, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Ikea founder Ingvar Kamprad moves back to Sweden after 40 years in Switzerland

Ikea founder Ingvar Kamprad is to return home to Sweden, 40 years after leaving the country to escape its high taxes. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/10145042/Ikea-founder-Ingvar-Kamprad-moves-back-to-Sweden-after-40-years-in-Switzerland.html

Well only people who live from Government money are happy with paying taxes. Simple as that ! If you have an honest living you cannot be happy that someone steels 50% of your money.

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In the lead at km 175

Thursday, June 27, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Small is not so beautiful

Wednesday, June 26, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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China’s big cities don’t have a great reputation these days: housing prices are soaring, traffic is choking, pollution is worsening. Small cities are certainly quieter, but this has worked against them, with fewer job opportunities to attract new migrants. The result, as Rosealea explains in this piece, is that China’s excess housing supply is mostly concentrated in smaller cities—a problem that could worsen, as the future dynamics of urbanization will favor big cities over small ones.

From GaveKal, Rosealea Yao

No surprise here, with Globalization the big companies are killing the small ones. When a prospect goes into a shop and don't know what to buy sometimes they ask, who is the leader! Low risk decision.
The costs of regulation are so high that the small businesses are being killed by bureaucracy/Goverment.  
To live in a big city everything is  cheap comparing to la small city or countryside. You can eat 24 hours a day, you get a plumber in a Sunday, the economies of scale are huge.You vcan go out and see smart people almost every night.

Bigger get bigger is the trend with Globalization.

What to do?

1.Live in a big lively city
2.Buy your competitor
3.Get bigger is worth more than to get better


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After burning some 5,000 calories

Wednesday, June 26, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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TP2013-ST1-225
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USD looks cheap

Wednesday, June 26, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Source:  BLS and SLJ Macro Partners.       (1) Compensation adjusted for employment taxes and government subsidies to estimate the actual
     cost to employers



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There is hope after all

Friday, June 21, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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What the BLS data tells us is that even in a rapidly automating world, we can't automate empathy.
Last week, when the BLS reported that the U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in May, analysts noted that one of the labor market's bright spots involved restaurants and bars. Waiters, cooks and bartenders accounted for a full 16% of the month's job growth. As the Washington Post's Neil Irwin put it, "A robot may be able to assemble a car, but a cook still grills burgers."



I agree fully with this nice article. Automation is destroying a lot of jobs everywhere. But there is hope, all manual things will still be needed and jobs where there are human empathy are more & more on demand. Low paying jobs but they are jobs.


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Deflation is the danger now

Wednesday, June 19, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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This wonderful graph from Gave kal says it all




















Since WWII we have been used to some growth in the world. Now things are stalling a bit, in the Developed world first and now even some Emerging Markets are not so hot anymore. We see riots in Turkey, Egypt and strikes in Europe. I don’t see growth coming back soon for the simple reason that there is excess supply in almost every business. If factories are working at 50% of capacity why building a new factory? On top of this every day machines are replacing some workers and doing much better what humans do, not in every task but enough to have an impact. There are of course some areas where there is some pricing power, today in FT as a result of demand from Asia the prices of Fresh sea fish are skyrocketing.

What to do in this envoirment ?

1.Find something to do that can not be replaced by a machine (arts, manual labour, all non repeatable tasks, the guy who programs the machines.)
2.Invest in areas with pricing power (Brands, some commodities that are rare and you can’t increase production, monopolies)
3.Get away from businesses that are essentially a commodity and don’t add nothing and have no intellectual property (easy to copy)

This is the world we are living now. Supply is bigger than demand & workers are being replaced by machines everywhere.


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Don't praise often and generally

Monday, June 17, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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A person who grows up getting too frequent rewards will not have persistence, because they’ll quit when the rewards disappear

Dr.Robert Cloninger, Washington University


A lot of research calls serious doubts about praising and specially praising general attributes like, you are so smart and things like that. If you are praised for your effort you know what to do to do well. To work and to persist. If you are praised with general statements like you are so good at this, if things turn south you start thinking twice about am i really that smart? That is why people who perceive themselves to be smart don't want to take challenges, there is only a downside. If they do well they are smart if they do wrong , oooops!

If you praise effort, and things don't turn good for the first time you try again and again. The worker's surpass the talented in almost all situations in life.


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Throwing in the towel for the first time!

Monday, June 17, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Saturday i had to quit a race for the first time.
It was the EOX 240 Mountain Bike Ultra marathon.
Last year i did 3rd
This year at Km 180, after 8 hours of racing i was in the lead with some 4 guys close to me at 30 or 40 seconds. I was alone in the front and happy!
One branch entered my back wheel and i broke some spokes and the Derailleur was damaged.
I could put the bike in single speed (it would take some 30 minutes to do that) but it would be very difficult to conclude the race! Still some 60 k to go!
bad luck it was not my day.
I just checked my Garmin and i averaged some 155 beats per minute and spent  1 hour above 160 heart beats per minute.
It was a good effort for nothing
Hope there is a next time!


This is a pic while i waited for the truck to pick me up.
















































At km 60 before Serpa, the front group got smaller and smaller.





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Information is worthless unless...

Wednesday, June 05, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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If your project or organization depends on knowing things that other people don't know (but could find out if they wanted to), your days are probably numbered. Ask a travel agent.

 Agents and brokers of any kind, in fact. Anyone who thrives when people are in the dark is in ever more danger of working in the bright light of transparent information.

 Seth Godin


I think in this era of globalization, internet, etc... we have access to plenty of info/noise. The value of information has been going down. It's free. However the value of what to do with the information and how to transform the noise in rules to help navigate is going up. It pays to know something, not the data but what to do with it. 


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What is Formal Education for?

Wednesday, June 05, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 2 Comments

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It is a miracle that curiosity survives formal education.
Albert Einstein

What is Formal Education for?

1.A way to obtain a diploma that is important to be accepted in some jobs. yes
2.A way to learn some things that are going to be very useful in life. NO
3.A way to make a kid think and behave like many. (Standardization) YES
4.A way to learn to learn. Perhaps
5.A way to be very influenced by peers. YES
6.A way to build some friends for life. YES
7.A way to lose many years learning things that are not essential. YES
8.A Way to postpone the start of active life/ working.  YES
9.A Way to be influenced by the teachers. A Bit- peers are a much stronger influence
10.A way to reduce (shrink) what you can do in life? Yes you tend do do just what you have studied
11.A way to make you think like an employee instead of thinking like a owner. YES

In Conclusion

It's too risky to be different (i am not doing this with my kids yet) but i guess a good education for life could be.

Basic education where they learn to read, write & count. 6 to 7 years
Some competition sports where they get to know people and figure out what the winners do to win
Some travelling every year alone
some working as a part time at any job, even jobs that they don't want to pursue for life
Some reading. Parents should make kids participate in some reading clubs where people read and comment on what they have read.
Working & learning on the job as soon as possible. Learn from a master instead of learning from a teacher.

Is this to risky?






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Prices are falling in Europe

Tuesday, June 04, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Prices are falling in Europe! If the average is falling and some prices are still going up (Non tradable , haicut's, schools, luxury, brands, etc....) some prices are falling big time. If you have no brand (To have a position to stand for something) you are in trouble. You have to be different to survive, to compete on price is a race to the bottom.
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Overqualification sometimes is a problem

Tuesday, June 04, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The Official Dilbert Website featuring Scott Adams Dilbert strips, animations and more

http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2013-05-23/


To study until you are in the 30's makes you unemployable. Why this happens? I guess the work you do in Academia and in school is very different from real work. When you have to do something in real life you don't have all the info, all the time, you have to decide in a hurry you just have to do it. In Academia you have deadlines, you have time to prepare, you can consult the books, collegues, etc...

on top of that the real problem in life is that you have to convince other people to work for you, clients to buy from you, to constantly interact with people that sometimes have different agendas than you! In Academia, you are alone studying and preparing for an exam, test or thesis. It's not a good preparation for the real thing.

Some employers prefer to hire someone that already did it than someone who is preparing to do it all his life.

Don't collect to much diplomas.


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