2 Thoughts for the last day of the year

Wednesday, December 31, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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1.Much of higher education consists of learning to make yourself look good. It's an essential skill, but you might as well learn something else while you're there too.

 Chris Guillebeau

 2.Some people get an education without going to college; the rest get it after they get out.

 Mark Twain


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College a waste of time and money for kids, FT

 Here is what's wrong with college.
First, and foremost, it's too expensive. To send a kid to college you need from $200,000 to $400,000. That's insane. There's no way the incremental advantage they get from having a diploma will ever pay back that amount. Perhaps for the first time the opportunity cost (a phrase I remember from Economics 101) of college does not equal the extra profits generated by the degree.
Second, I don't believe in a balanced education. Most colleges require students to take a smattering of art, maths, sciences and so forth. Taking 10 courses a year on wildly different topics, with enormous homework responsibilities, not to mention droning, boring professors for at least eight of the 10, is the surest formula for creating complete non-interest and inability to remember anything in any of the topics covered. What a waste of $400,000.
And third, there are far better uses of time. One reader asked what her kid should be doing instead of college. Here are some of my responses:
1. Working - not just a labour or service job, but there are internet-content jobs out there. I have high school and college kids working for me who are making over $50,000 a year from writing gigs on the internet. Scour Craigslist for opportunities, your favourite blogs, or websites related to your favourite interests. Companies are dying for good content. Create your own blog, get yourself noticed, build relationships with other content companies and communities.
2. Take half the fee for one semester, give it to your kid, and tell him or her to start a business. Not every youngster has entrepreneurial sensibilities, but it's always worth trying once. The cost for starting a business is next to zero, so it's a viable alternative. What business should they start? For one thing, now that Facebook and MySpace have open development platforms, try out a few applications for these platforms; for a few hundred dollars you can outsource development of these applications to India, and get your friends to start trying them. Make sure they are viral (that is, a message should appear "click here to get all your friends to try XYZ") and see which ones are a success. I mention Facebook and MySpace because every kid is familiar with these sites and comfortable with the subtleties, and it's this comfort that can create the best businesses.
3. Spend a year trying to become good at one thing. Whatever your child's greatest interest is, whether cooking, chess, writing, maths, there are so many resources on the internet available for learning that college is almost the last place a kid should go to pursue a passion. Intense immersion in a favourite topic is the surest way to become an expert in that field.
Other linke

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/03/does-education-matter.html


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I took the day off yesterday

Wednesday, December 31, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Yesterday with freezing temperatures in Portugal i rode with a bunch of my friends to Montejunto. It was a very nice  to be able to ride in a week day. Almost 5 hours on the bike.

 Life is good. There are a lot of wonderful things to do without spending money! ahhh, we stop briefly for a coffee in Torres vedras.
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one victim of automation is marriage

Monday, December 29, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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This erosion of traditional marriage and family structure has played out most dramatically among low-income groups, both black and white. According to the sociologist William Julius Wilson, inner-city black men struggled badly in the 1970s, as manufacturing plants shut down or moved to distant suburbs. These men naturally resented their downward mobility, and had trouble making the switch to service jobs requiring a very different style of self-presentation. The joblessness and economic insecurity that resulted created a host of problems, and made many men altogether unmarriable. Today, as manufacturing jobs disappear nationwide (American manufacturing shed about a third of its jobs during the first decade of this century), the same phenomenon may be under way, but on a much larger scale....................

But while the rise of women has been good for everyone, the decline of males has obviously been bad news for men—and bad news for marriage. For all the changes the institution has undergone, American women as a whole have never been confronted with such a radically shrinking pool of what are traditionally considered to be “marriageable” men—those who are better educated and earn more than they do. So women are now contending with what we might call the new scarcity. Even as women have seen their range of options broaden in recent years—for instance, expanding the kind of men it’s culturally acceptable to be with, and making it okay not to marry at all—the new scarcity disrupts what economists call the “marriage market” in a way that in fact narrows the available choices, making a good man harder to find than ever. At the rate things are going, the next generation’s pool of good men will be significantly smaller. What does this portend for the future of the American family?

From The Atlantic, Kate Bolick, All the single Ladies


If the marriage only works if man makes more money than the woman marriage is in deep trouble because many typical male professions are shrinking fast. Automation is killing all the repetitive jobs.

In the past i think man didn't got distressed to pay all the households expenses because women gave them children and cared for them  Today if the man doesn't make any money why do women would support them? they can't produce children?

Single woman is the way forward because the the marriage pool of acceptable man is shrinking fast.


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Cold showers really work!

Monday, December 29, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Seven million years of human evolution were dominated by two challenges: food scarcity and cold. “In the last 0.9 inches of our evolutionary mile,” they write, pointing to the fundamental lifestyle changes brought about by refrigeration and modern transportation, “we solved them both.” Other species don’t exhibit nearly as much obesity and chronic disease as we warm, overfed humans and our pets do. “Maybe our problem,” they continue, “is that winter never comes.”......

 Another 2014 study found that, even after controlling for diet, lifestyle, and other factors, people who live in warmer parts of Spain are more likely to be obese than people who live in the cooler parts.

 From The Benefits of Being Cold, The Atlantic, 2014
An Easy way to get in shape fast is to end every shower with cold water. It's difficult but not impossible. Start from the feet up, 1 minute is enough. You get in shape really fast. 

My oldest son, who is 16, sleeps with the bedroom window open even in the winter! Despite being a good eater he is really skinny. I guess exposure to cold makes a big impact.


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Big smart Gurus/Stars are loosers in the long run

Monday, December 29, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Data lovers are winning everywhere . But they don't look like Stars. A star is someone who does a prediction and time to time they nail it big time. A star is someone who predicted 10 market crashes and on the 10 th time they are correct. A star is Nouriel Roubinni who predicted the 2007 sub prime crisis and since then has been wrong ever since.

A data lover is not a star. He doesn't do Big fat predictions. He does a lot of small bets and ultimately wins. A data lover is the casino. A Guru is the visitor/gambler who time to time hits the jackpot.

If you want a winner , don't expect big views expect a system.

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Is this the future!

Monday, December 15, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Is this the future? No this is already the present. You buy on internet, get the best price and the best advice. Since i start reading comments from previous buys i don't get bad advice from the Shop staff. Typically the shop staff only want to push the product of the week on you.

Retail shopping is going down and for good reason. Comfort, price and advice.



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Big get Bigger

Monday, December 15, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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In the first quarter, the latest data, companies with more than 500 employees accounted for 46.3% of private sector jobs, up from 44.2% a decade earlier, while those with fewer than 50 employees fell to 28.4% from 30.2%. At the same time, new business formations have been falling steadily since the 1990s, and intensifying since the Great Recession. Where are all the entrepreneurs?

From The Great Insight, A Gary Shillig
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A 50 year trend !

Friday, December 12, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The declining labor share (NYT Economix)




Labour has been squeezed 

 A lot of people thought about outsourcing to China as the main culprit for this 50 year trend! My view is different, technology & automation is the real cause for this.

 What to do?

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/11/stayin-home.html


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Having to much is a big problem to children

Friday, December 12, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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“My own instinct is that it’s much harder than anybody believes to bring up kids in a wealthy environment. People are ruined by challenged economic lives. But they’re ruined by wealth as well because they lose their ambition and they lose their pride and they lose their sense of self-worth… there’s probably some place in the middle which works best of all.”

From Malcolm Gladwell , David & Goliath

In the book Gladwell cites a Hollywood millionaire problems rising his kids. He claims that parenting with no money is extremely difficult but with lot's of money is also challenging  Your kids are spoiled and used to only the best, have never experienced rejection & difficulties  They are not prepared for life !

That is the reason Wealth contains the seed of it's own destruction.

Normally Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations is the norm. To prevent this i guess you should not give everything to your kids they have to fight for something. You have to say no

How? 

when they ask for something you should never say that you can't afford it but that you can but you won't. This is key for them to figure out that the money is difficult to earn and that it should be difficult to spend to.

About this is important to not confuse necessity with desire. 

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Best Advice

Friday, December 05, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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The best advice i ever heard was this

Recent performance is a very good indicator of future performance.

Never buy a stock that isn't going up.


In the SEC page we could read

This year's top-performing mutual funds aren't necessarily going to be next year's best performers. It’s not uncommon for a fund to have better-than-average performance one year and mediocre or below-average performance the following year. That's why the SEC requires funds to tell investors that a fund's past performance does not necessarily predict future results. You can learn what factors to consider before investing in a mutual fund by reading 

I don't agree with this paragraph, the best funds of this year probably will do better next year than a basket of this year worst funds. 

It's kind of simple but it works.


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With Globalization when you do good you can do really good!

Friday, December 05, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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To me there is no inequality here. If you are good like BEYONCE you can sell 1 million downloads in 1 hour from your webpage. 50 years ago FRANK SINATRA could gather 2000 people in a room. That is the difference.

What you should do? Go for it, do something that you cane scale up big time.


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Just do it !

Wednesday, December 03, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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if you get into Harvard it's because you are already good

If a college degree always means higher wages, then everyone should get a college degree: That’s the conventional wisdom encapsulated by Obama. But how can everyone win a zero-sum tournament? No single path can work for everyone, and the promise of such an easy path is a sign of a bubble.

.................

A Reformation is coming, and its message will be the same as it was 500 years ago: Don’t outsource your future to a big institution. You need to figure it out for yourself.



The bottom line on this is simple. No asset is so good that it can't be bid up to the point where it's overpriced and thus dangerous. And few assets are so bad that they can't become under priced and thus safe (not to mention potentially lucrative)

Howard Marks, Oaktree 2013



No doubt if you manage to get into Harvard you will do better than average. But you will be no Bill gates, Steve Jobs or Zuckerberg. You will do good for 2 reasons:

1.if you get into Harvard it's because you are already good. People are hand picked, you don't get good at Harvard, you were already good before getting in. Harvard is a stamp of quality.

2.If you don't miss the multiple parties on Campus you will make some friends for life. That is the biggest asset from higher education. Party til you die.

The flip-side is that higher education is unaffordable to many and even if you are smart enough to land at Harvard you don't get much bang for the buck! It's not a huge deal anymore. Too expensive.

what to do?

start doing as soon as you can. Stop studying in formal education. Work & read & do some higher education sorties (some 2 weekends programs, etc....), study as you go, never stop studying.




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Leisure has a good future.

Wednesday, December 03, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Everything that is physically possible will be invented
Humans are capable of an infinite amount of progress. We can improve things without limit, and learn without limit. This covers not just material improvement but also moral improvement. We have to invest in knowledge non stop. 

The way to go is to study forever.

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/06/statistically-there-is-50-chance-that.html



 Deutsche Bank goes on to say that solar electricity is on track to be as cheap or cheaper than average electricity-bill prices in all but three states by 2016—assuming,that is, that the federal government maintains the 30 percent solar investment tax credit it currently offers homeowners on installation and equipment costs.................................

 And prices for solar are expected to keep falling as technologies improve and financing becomes more affordable. Solar leasing has helped hundreds of thousands of Americans realize the dream of going solar without breaking the bank. The companies behind such programs—SolarCity, SunRun and others—take care of installation, maintenance and upgrades while the customer ends up paying about as much for clean, green power as for grid power from coal or other fossil fuels.

 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rooftop-solar-cost-competitive-with-the-grid-in-much-of-the-u-s/

The future is some of us studying & inventing the future and a lot of us idle. Machines will do more & more. The future will be good. There will be a lot of spare time. Perhaps because of that NIKE stock is doing so well. Leisure has a good future.



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Love is rational after all

Monday, December 01, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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https://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=nav_responsive_tab_home


D5E05E95-1F99-4687-B2E7-72C81646175E.jpg


Since our parents inevitably made errors in their courtships, we are unlikely to be ideally balanced ourselves. We have typically come out too tall or too short, too masculine or too feminine; our noses are large, our chins small. If such imbalances were allowed to persist, or were aggravated, the human race would, within a short time, founder in oddity.The will-to-life must therefore push us towards people who can, on account of their imperfections, cancel out our own (a large nose combined with a button nose promises a perfect nose). Schopenhauer liked predicting pathways of attraction. Short women will fall in love with tall men, but rarely will you see tall men go for tall women (they unconsciously fear the production of giants). Feminine men will often be drawn to boyish women with short hair.

Alan de Botton, The Consolations of Philosophy
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The opinion you have of yourself is very very important. Stay clean.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 3 Comments

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Avoid the Second MIstake

by James Clear | Read this article on JamesClear.com
 
So often, we make the mistake of believing that sticking to good habits is an all-or-nothing game. (I say “we” because I’ve been there before as well.)
·         We assume that if we slip up on our diet, then we have ruined the whole thing.
·         We act like missing one day of writing means we simply weren’t meant to be a writer.
·         We use our lack of motivation to work out as evidence that we don’t have the willpower to make change happen.
These beliefs are incorrect. Habits are behaviors that we repeat consistently. However, they are not behaviors that we repeat perfectly. This small idea—that consistency does not require perfection—is important.

When it comes to building good habits and breaking bad habits, individual mistakes do not matter in the long-run. Instead, it is the second mistake that is far more important. Let’s talk about why this is true.

I don't agree with this idea, i believe the What the hell effect is more powerful. When you are on diet and you make the first mistake and the day is lost you start a binge because it's not a diet day anymore, so What the hell. Most people are like me if you don't do the first mystake you stick 100% to the routine but if you do .........it's a mess.
Don't do the first mistake. Do everything in your power. All or nothing it's the realty here. There is even a more powerfull effect that Dan Ariely mention in his books. If you wear a fake luxury item you feel you are cheating. And when you have the opportunity to cheat you do it more than people that didn't wear fake luxury items. If you have the impression that you are a cheater you tend to become one.
The opinion you have of yourself is very very important. Stay clean.
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Best predictor of tomorrow winners is today's winners!

Thursday, November 20, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Always the same names at the top


New teams that make the UEFA top 10 that were absent in the top 10 last year.

the trend is down from almost 4 in 1961 to just 1 now.

With Globalization the power of the winners is perpetuated because they make more money, they invest more & because of that they tend to win again.

 The phrase past performance is not an indicator of future performance is wrong big time!
























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There are no shortcuts to any place worth going - Beverly Sills

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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You become what you think about all day long.
― Ralph Waldo Emerson
Everything in moderation, including moderation
  ---  Julia Child

A paper from Lee Biggerstaff at Miami University, David C. Cicero at the University of Alabama, and Andy Puckett at the University of Tennessee (which we were first alerted to by Bloomberg's Matt Levine) published in August looks at the relationship between CEOs that play lots of golf and the performance of those CEOs' companies. 
The findings are not in favor of the golfers. ....

Here are some of the highlights of the paper's findings:
  • Companies with CEOs in the top quartile of golf play (22 rounds or more per year) have lower operating performance and firm values.
  • Some CEOs in the database played more than 100 rounds in a year! (There are 365 days in a year.)
  • "While some golf rounds may serve a valid business purpose, it is unlikely that the amount of golf played by the most frequent golfers is necessary for a CEO to support her firm."
  • CEOs play more golf the longer they are the CEO.
  • The number of golf rounds a CEO plays are negatively correlated with changes in firm profitability. 
  • Overall, higher golf play is associated with a higher probability of CEO turnover.
  • One CEO played 146 rounds of golf in a year.
Among the other choice bits of info from the report include that Jimmy Cayne, the former CEO of Bear Stearns spent 10 of 21 working days away from the office playing golf or bridge in July 2007, the same month that two Bear Stearns hedge funds collapsed.

http://www.businessinsider.com/ceo-golf-rounds-indicate-poor-performance-2014-11


Nothing new here to be the best you have to be obsessed, No normal people have outstanding results. People who advise that you should work less are not giving a good advice. Work is one of the biggest weapons a person might have. 


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"Genius is 1% talent and 99% percent hard work..."
— Albert Einstein


Talent is cheaper than table salt. What separates the talented individual from the successful one is a lot of hard work."
— Stephen King
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working hard

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Some ideas for the weekend

Friday, November 14, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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1.Great companies have secrets: specific reasons for success that other people don’t see

Peter Thiel

2.Action cures fear." 
— David J. Schwartz (Magic of Thinking Big)

3.In philosophy, politics, and business, too, arguing over process has become a way to endlessly defer making concrete plans for a better future

Peter Thiel

4. “If I get married, I want to be very married.” 
― Audrey Hepburn

5.Tolstoy opens Anna Karenina by observing: “All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in his own way” Business is the opposite. All happy companies are different: each one earns a monopoly by solving a unique problem. All failed companies are the same: they failed to escape competition”

Peter Thiel, Zero to One Chapter 3

6.“The minute you choose to do what you really want to do, it's a different kind of life.” 
― R. Buckminster Fuller

7.Somebody should tell us, right at the start of our lives, that we are dying. Then we might live life to the limit, every minute of every day. Do it! I say. Whatever you want to do, do it now! There are only so many tomorrows.”
― Pope Paul VI

8.A friendship founded on business is better than a business founded on friendship.
John D. Rockefeller
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Don't take notes, it ruins your memory

Thursday, November 13, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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One of the keys to happiness is a bad memory
― Rita Mae Brown

A recent study from Michelle Eskritt and Sierra Ma at Mount St. Vincent University—published in the journal Memory & Cognition—suggests that when you take notes, your brain can intentionally forget because it knows that you've written the information down and stored it elsewhere. During the study, participants were asked to play the memory game Concentration over and over. The catch was that one group was allowed to take notes during the game. Halfway through the game, however, that same group got their notes taken away. When it was all done, the group that was not allowed to use notes performed significantly better.




Until today I used to take notes with the idea that one day in the distant future i am going to need them. It is never the case!

from now on i am going to take my Moleskin just for show off. No more notes. It ruins my memory!

 However after reading the first quote i prefer to have a lousy memory, in fact when i recall the past i just remember good things! When i recall the Avalanche/accident in Mont Blanc where i broke my leg & other minor things I just remember the good things about the trip and the people who visit me in the hospital.

 Nothing like a bad (selective)  memory!






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I wasn't expecting this!

Wednesday, November 12, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 2 Comments

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“We sell quality stuff at the best possible price. If you treat consumers with respect and treat employees with respect, good things are going to happen to you” – CEO of Costco
According to Glassdoor Costco’s cashiers get paid $15.80/hour and supervisors get paid $22.94/hour.  This compares to Walmart’s cashiers at $8.89/hour and department managers at $12.00/hour. Target’s cashiers receive $8.66/hour and team leaders receive $15.36/hour. Moreover Bloomberg reports 88% of Costco’s employees are on company sponsored health care plans, which is much higher than other retailers. Costco’s higher pay and benefits keep turnover low and increases the quality of service.



Despite paying more for their people, almost double Costco is killing the competition? How is it possible? I have never been in a Costco store but i will try to find out how is it possible that in a commodity business like Supermarkets (Everybody sells the same stuff) the low cost producer doesn't win! And Wal-mart is not winning!


I don't buy the quality of service argument because when i go to a supermarket i don't need a lot of service. I don't care if the cashier ask me if i have their credit card with a smile or not. There is something more to this ......................


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if you build, they will come

Wednesday, November 12, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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“if you build, they will come.” That’s been a bad assumption for a lot of producers, especially of commodities

 Dr. Ed's Blog

 That is the problem with the world with automation it's easy to produce more than the world needs and there is excess supply of almost everything.

This is the graph of CRB Commodity Index it's slowly drifting lower. It's not good to be a producer of commodities these days. 

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Why Oil is going down?

Monday, November 10, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Today from Quatz

 China hit a record stretch of deflation. Overcapacity, cheap commodities, and sluggish domestic demand were blamed for official figures showing China’s producer price index fell 2.2% in October from a year earlier, compared with an expected 2% fall—the 32nd consecutive monthly drop. Consumer prices rose 1.6% in October, matching expectations and remaining unchanged from September.

 The world is cooling down! Growth is shrinking and the reason is overcapacity & automation.

This is the reason why Brands& Luxury have been going up. The sales price of a Cartier watch has been going up forever. If the cost of putting together the watch is going down Cartier margin is expanding. The market already recognized that. Is there more money in the table? I guess yes because i see deflation in the future. If you have a brand you can survive if you are a commodity producer (price taker) you have a problem.
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why woman love to go to crowded restaurants

Monday, November 10, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Fortune:

Poor Germany: Why the east will never catch up to the west

The anniversary offers a chance to look back on what German reunification has brought Europe’s most powerful economy and its people. One of the most salient facts about Germany today is how much hasn’t changed in terms of regional disparities in economic development. According to the German Federal Labor Office, unemployment in the former East German state sits at above 9%, while it hovers at 5.6% in the former West German territories, and the discrepancy would be worse were it not for government programs that bring jobs to the region.
If you look at statistics such as per capita income or worker productivity, they also point to the large disparity in economic development between east and west.................
As long as talented and motivated young people in Germany are allowed to freely leave the East for better opportunities in the West, regional differences in economic development will persist.
People flock to where there are opportunities & growth. That is the reason why New York & London are growing faster than any other cities in the world. Big get bigger is a big trend. No one wants to go to an empty restaurant! Nothing brings more success than the appearance of success. When a region or country is left behind only government can change that . To place a big college with many students in a poor region sometimes can change things a bit. Otherwise my advice is . When you are in a working age live in the center and when you are out of work/retired go and live in a poor region. To make money you need to be where people are already making money.
I thought many times to get a work in London or Geneva and have my family in Lisbon that would be the ideal set up! A lot of flying but it would be the best business....

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member.
Groucho Marx


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How to be the best, just do a bit more than you did yesterday.

Friday, November 07, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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http://traderfeed.blogspot.pt/2014/11/how-to-become-peak-performance-trader.html



This is so true! During 4 years I just concentrate on improving a bit from one year to the other. Diet,  weight, intervals, technique, cold showers, push up's,  etc...During those 4 years my Cyclist performance really changed for the better.

Now i am on a sabbatical because I have a new baby. But when i am back to serious sport I will do the same. 

Buy a book and take note of everyday progress. Compete with yourself

More about the same

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/12/how-to-be-in-shape-easy.html
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My job is to help people make money with money.

Wednesday, November 05, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Persistently low interest rates and new rules for banks and money-market funds are complicating the task of managing the almost $2 trillion on corporate balance sheets, setting off a scramble to find new parking places for that cash. 

By Vipal Monga, WSJ



My job is to help people make money with money.

When rates were high and we could get 5 or 6% for the cash part of a portfolio it was easy life. Now it's getting more difficult.

i see 2 possible ideas to do this:

1.Do as Charles Gave from gave Kal says! Exclude everything that is going to die and you get a portfolio by exclusion.

Exclude people that are going to lose from Robotics
Exclude people that have high energy costs & are high energy users
Exclude small vs big (big are winning). 
Buy the center sell the periphery
Buy the big city sell the countryside
Exclude companies in countries that have a competitive disadvantage (High interest, high tax, low productivity, etc...
Exclude commodities vs (Brands are winning)
etc....

2.Make things happen! . There is no top line growth in the world so you have to create growth.

use your cash to Buy your competitor
Sell units/business that you are not nº1 or nº2
Buy companies that have a bloated cost base and cut costs like crazy (If the PE of the market is 20 if you cut 1 b of fixed costs the market cap will increase by 20x that amount!)



what is not going to work? Sit and watch your money grow without doing anything.
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Yes Mr Gross you are right !

Tuesday, November 04, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The real economy needs money printing, yes, but money spending more so, and that must come from the fiscal side – from the dreaded government side – where deficits are anathema and balanced budgets are increasingly in vogue. Until then, Grant’s deflation remains a growing possibility – not the kind that creates prosperity but the kind that’s the trouble for prosperity.
-William H. Gross
https://www.janus.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook



Lack of demand is the problem in the world. Excess capacity is a plague! The world need this

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/11/pay-people-for-being-alive.html
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With Automation we don't need to produce in CHINA

Tuesday, November 04, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From FT, Sarah Gordon, Business Editor


The trend is not limited to the eurozone. In a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year, David Cameron, UK prime minister, highlighted businesses ranging from Symingtons, the food producer, and EE, the mobile phone operator, as having reshored some of their operations to the UK. EE, which owns Orange and T-Mobile, announced plans this year to move call-centre activities back to the UK from overseas locations including the Philippines...................

“In some areas of manufacturing technological changes mean you don’t need so many people to produce things,” said Mr Hawksworth. “This means you create fewer more highly skilled jobs.”

 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6aaaf0a4-610e-11e4-894b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3I5W9kAfm
With automation you can locate the factory near the market you want to serve. There is no point producing in China to sell in Europe or USA. It's riskier & shipment is costly. 

 More on the same subject:

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/01/no-convergence-at-all.html





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Same rules for everybody only benefits the best.

Friday, October 31, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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Europe is in recession again! 

 If the Euro devalues who is going to benefit?

 Germany

 why?
Because only the companies that have positive cash flow (northern Europe) have money to invest in new people, hire army's of researchers ,etc....The companies in the South of Europe are busy not dying, cutting costs, etc...

The creation of the Euro prevents the south of Europe to devalue and therefore they are not competitive. There is a difference in productivity gains and that is growing slowly every year.

The Euro is like ordering the students to study only 2 hours a day maximum. Of course the not so smart/dumb student that takes time to figure things out is at a big disadvantage. 

Same rules for everybody only benefits the best.





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