In NY you don't need a car!

Monday, December 28, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Milan local government bans traffic from city due to poor air quality

Daytime ban on all vehicles in place until Wednesday alongside other measures across Italy to reduce air pollution

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/27/iranian-football-matches-postponed-as-air-pollution-soars


A cyclist in central Milan during a no-car day


The solution is not to ban car's is to build skyscrapers . In NY you don't need a car. you can walk.

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/search?q=Why+cities+should+be+building+



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Me and my 3 boys during Christmas in Porto

Monday, December 28, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The winner takes it all

Thursday, December 17, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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 instead of some companies serving the high end of a market with a superior experience while others serve the low-end with a “good-enough” offering, one company can serve everyone. 

 If  you can build and install a beautiful machine that can make & serve a perfect coffee or cappuccino in a cup with a glass of water (you can choose sparkling, still, cold or normal) in a tray you can serve the high end . After that you can serve a lower grade coffee in a paper cup at a cheaper cost.

after the initial cost you can serve everybody. In this example the marginal cost isn't zero but on the internet platform companies the marginal cost is zero (Uber, Booking, etc.....)




 Stratechery, Ben Thompson

 Every additional customer accrued a cost, whether that be the marginal cost of serving them or the opportunity cost of not serving a different customer. Given that, it was, as Christensen noted, perfectly rational to focus on the most profitable ones.
However, something else momentous happened around 20 years ago: the emergence of the Internet. As I’ve written repeatedly, including two weeks ago in Selling Feelings and this summer in Aggregation Theory, the Internet has completely transformed business by making both distribution and transaction costs effectively free. In turn, this has completely changed the calculus when it comes to adding new customers: specifically, it is now possible to build businesses where every incremental customer has both zero marginal costs and zero opportunity costs.
This has profound implications: instead of some companies serving the high end of a market with a superior experience while others serve the low-end with a “good-enough” offering, one company can serve everyone. And, given the choice between a superior experience and one that is “good-enough,” of course the superior experience will win.
To be sure, it takes time to scale such a company, but given the end game of owning the entire market, the rational approach is not to start on the low-end, but rather the exact opposite. After all, while marginal costs may be zero, providing a superior experience in the age of the Internet entails significant upfront (fixed) costs, and while those fixed costs are minimized on a per-customer basis at scale, they can have a significant impact with a small customer base. Therefore, it makes sense to start at the high-end with customers who have a greater willingness-to-pay, and from there scale downwards, decreasing your price along with the decrease in your per-customer cost base (because of scale) as you go (and again, without accruing material marginal costs).

 This is exactly what Uber has done: the company spent its early years building its core technology and delivering a high-end experience with significantly higher prices than incumbent taxi companies. Eventually, though, the exact same technology was deployed to deliver an lower-priced experience to a significantly broader customer base; said customer base was brought on board at zero marginal cost (to be sure, there is more to Uber’s success than that; I laid out in Why Uber Fights how Uber’s aggregation of riders gives them leverage in bringing drivers onto their platform in a virtuous cycle).
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What are the tell-tale signs that a company or an industry is a loser?

Thursday, December 17, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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So what are the tell-tale signs that a company or an industry is a loser? Well one thing that is a sure fire sign of a company in trouble is its history of issuing equity. If management think continually selling equity is a good idea, it is more than likely that as investors you should be selling equity too.


Russell Clark


Sell stocks of companies that announce huge acquisitions, that overdiversify, or that spend a fortune on a lavish new headquarters.

Barry Ritholtz

More about the same
http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2012/12/investment-overcapacity-collapse.html
PS I just spoke with someone that did a paper about IPO's and the picture is that an industry that have many IPO's stops performing in the stock market. I never liked IPO's for the simple reason that the companies only come to the market in very good times. This year 7 out of the 10 biggest IPO's are under water (below offering price!)

 Screen_Shot_2015 12 15_at_5_34_34_PM
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The easy way is not so easy

Wednesday, December 16, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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"Try to learn something about everything and everything about something."

Thomas Huxley

These Goats are specialist climbers.

They do whatever they want, almost no predators (leopard) venture to these places. They eat unmolested. They have a good life versus the animals on the plains. Those have to use the speed, as long as they aren't the slowest in the herd they are ok but they never have a good night of sleep. 

If you want to sleep well be a specialist! Do something difficult.






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It's getting dificult to make money with money

Tuesday, December 15, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Only Engineers and sales people are needed all the rest are useless.................

Thursday, December 10, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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In short, software is eating the world.
Marc Andreessen 

Goldman has 11,000 Engineers among 37,000 employees! 

This is not the future this is the present! 

PS there is one exception, Philosophers do well on the investment business.


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money for nothing !

Monday, December 07, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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In short, software is eating the world.

Marc Andreessen 

 From Quartz,

 The Finnish government is currently drawing up plans to introduce a national basic income. A final proposal won’t be presented until November 2016, but if all goes to schedule, Finland will scrap all existing benefits and instead hand out €800 ($870) per month—to everyone.
It sounds far-fetched, but it’s looking likely that Finland will carry through with the idea. Whereas several Dutch cities will introduce basic income next year and Switzerland is holding a referendum on the subject, there is strongest political and public support for the idea in Finland.

 Why are the Finn's considering this?

 because with robots & tech not everyone will have a job.
Software substitution, whether it's for drivers or waiters or nurses - it's progressing. Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set.
Bill Gates

My collegue Rui martins dos Santos had already proposed something like this to address the lack of demand in the world . But with a difference the Government would pay a fixed amount to everyone older than 60. This way you would not ruin the labor market. I think this is the future not a bright future but machines will replace most humans. 


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The luckiest group of babies ever

Wednesday, November 25, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The purpose of life is a life of purpose. 
Robert Byrne 

 Everything: medicine, education, you know, just the conveniences of the life, transportation, entertainment, everything is dramatically better than it was 50 years ago. In fact, I tell the students, these students in that class today are actually living better than John D. Rockefeller Senior lived when I was born. Here was the richest man in the world -- he could not travel as well as they can travel, he could not be entertained as well as they can be entertained, he did not have the medicine they have. In all kinds of ways they’re living better than the richest man in the world lived at the time of my birth. The luckiest group of babies ever born in the world are the babies being born in the United States today.

Warren Buffet


The fact that warren Buffet has to speak this words shows that this is not yet recognized. why? what is lacking? I think we are lacking meaning most youths that are being born now will not have a job or a profession. They will not be necessary they will not be needed.  They will lack a job a profession a destiny.

Before people were at least a piece of the production machine even if it was a minor job in a factory or office. These days many jobs are automated, many people have nothing to do. They get a check from social security, food stamps and some money from their parents. They spend 30 years learning more and more things that don't matter, taking Masters post doc and other futile degrees. They are not necessary.

To be happy people must be busy, when you have nothing to do you are not happy!

so my advice is to get busy

what are the occupations that are necessary and are possible to the average guy/girls

everything leisure entertain other people
everything outside activities, sports, games things to get other people occupied
everything manual that cannot be automated, massagist, mechanic, personal trainner, psychologist, priest, etc.....




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10 ideas about Brazil

Tuesday, November 24, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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1.They are in a bit of a crisis like all EM

2.In my view Dilma the President has some blame but not all. It's true that some well run countries in South America are better (Colombia & Chile) and some bad run countries are broke (Venezuela & Argentina). Governments make a difference but all EM countries are doing bad. see the link below


3.Center São Paulo is not Brazil (much richer) but the quality of the services is above many things in NY or London. Exemples: Restaurants the kitchen is top, the Toilette is extremely good taste and they have Manobristas ( vallet parking). The gym (Studio Velocity)is much cleaner than anything i have experienced, the supermarket EaTALY is much better than the one in NY in my view. Of course much of this things are luxury items not necessary items. you need many jobs to perform them and people could live without them.

4.Companies are adjusting & firing people.


5.Since car insurance is not compulsory people are very careful driving (you might hit someone without insurance). No one horns like in NY or Europe.

 6. Government just issued new law that creates serious liability for the employer of house service people. Probably they are going to hurt the employees.

 7. According to the economist Brazil has a very low immigration. why? Rules are not friendlier to high skilled immigrants.

8.In central São Paulo there are some of the best buildings in the world.


9. The best salad in the world is at the Cantina do Sargento at Pamplona Alameda.


10. What is the way out for Brazil. I think Brazil should invest in everything linked to food. Seed investigation, nutrition investigation, irrigation investigation, new plants, etc... Why? because each country has specialized, Switzerland in watches, chocolate & banks, Italy olive oil&shoes, car's& chemical's in Germany, luxury, tourism &wine  in France, Tourism &Financial services in UK, corks & Paper in Portugal high tech in US etc... Brasil has the best food, Mango, Coco, meat, everything tastes good. They should focus on what they already do well. They have soil & water & sun. They should go for it. Charge more for Made in Brazil food.


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Leaving for Geneva & São Paulo on Business

Monday, November 09, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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One pic from this weekend. 

 He know he is guilty ! fell into the Lake



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This is my opportunity

Monday, November 02, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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PROPERTY FROM A DISTINGUISHED EUROPEAN COLLECTION   

Nu couché
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The only way to succeed was to surround myself with good people

Monday, November 02, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the FT

The only way to succeed was to surround myself with good people.” This is his life-long mantra, but he says many bosses do not share it. “Some think that will endanger their own job.”
Above all, he needed a great driver. “The first great pilote I talked to about joining Ferrari was [Ayrton] Senna, in September 1993, in my hotel room at Villa d’Este on Lake Como. He wanted to join, but only in 1994.” That was too early for Todt, who still had other drivers under contract. The three-times world champion joined Williams, and in 1994 crashed and died at Imola.
Todt hired reigning world champion Michael Schumacher, who would become a dear friend. “How did we convince Schumacher?” says Todt. “The attraction was the challenge. He had won championships with a lesser automobile brand [Benetton]. We persuad­ed him that if he succeeded with Ferrari, he would have a different dimension.”
But Schumacher took years to succeed with Ferrari. That left “il Francese” — “the Frenchman” — under attack in Italy. Being a foreigner helped Todt ignore Italian controversies. Anoth­er of his gifts helped too: he had mastered Italian in six months. He learnt it as he had German and English: not in school but rapidly in practice.

From 2000 to 2004 Schumacher won five straight world driver’s titles. Ferrari ruled F1,

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/00faad44-7cdc-11e5-98fb-5a6d4728f74e.html#axzz3qLec2hpb

All the world is competitive but in many places the difference between being nº1 and nº2 are huge. F1 is one of those cases,  to be nº1 it's a different league. You really need the best people and you can push them.

In business not everybody wants to be the best, sometimes you can live by being competent and reliable and simple to survive. I don't need to have a Ferrari. 

If you are different you can survive because if you are different no one is like you and for sure someone will buy what you do.

Having said this i believe as Jean Todt (was to surround myself with good people) you have to let go the bad people in your organization every year and try to hire the best you can find. For the best people you need to pay them. With this strategy these people will move the organization forward.




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Why EM are not emerging ?

Monday, November 02, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Because people in the EM want to buy i-phones not the local brand.

 As simple as that, people want the best and the best is not in EM. 






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First Big Wave Day of this season in Portugal ! Nazare 1st of November

Monday, November 02, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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one from last year
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Why Cities Live forever and Companies Die a lot and faster ?

Friday, October 30, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Because as companies grow they are captured/dominated by bureaucracy. In a big city there is a lot of crazy people. In a big company all the crazy people are fired and replaced by organized and reliable people.

 That is why companies die a lot. Predictable people do predictable & boring things.

Lifespan of  Large Companies, Richard Foster


http://edge.org/conversation/geoffrey_west-why-cities-keep-growing-corporations-and-people-always-die-and-life-gets
From John Brokman
The great thing about cities, the thing that is amazing about cities is as they grow, so to speak, their dimensionality increases. That is, the space of opportunity, the space of functions, the space of jobs just continually increases. And the data shows that. If you look at job categories, it continually increases. I'll use the word "dimensionality."  It opens up. And in fact, one of the great things about cities is that it supports crazy people. You walk down Fifth Avenue, you see crazy people. There are always crazy people. Well, that's good. Cities are tolerant of extraordinary diversity. ...
This is in complete contrast to companies. The Google boys in the back garage so to speak with ideas of the search engine, were no doubt promoting all kinds of crazy ideas and maybe having even crazy people around them.
Well, Google is a bit of an exception, because it still tolerates some of that. But most companies start out probably with some of that buzz. But the data indicates that at about 50 employees to a hundred that buzz starts to stop. A company that was more multi dimensional, more evolved, becomes uni dimensional. It closes down.
Indeed, if you go to General Motors or you go to American Airlines or you go to Goldman Sachs, you don't see crazy people. Crazy people are fired. Well, to speak of crazy people, is taking the extreme. But maverick people are often fired.
It's not surprising to learn that when manufacturing companies are on a down turn, they decrease research and development, and in fact in some cases, do actually get rid of it, thinking this is "oh, we can get that back in two years we'll be back on track."
Well, this kind of thinking kills them. This is part of the killing, and this is part of the change from superlinear to sublinear, namely companies allow themselves to be dominated by bureaucracy and administration over creativity and innovation, and unfortunately, it's necessary. You cannot run a company without administrative. Someone has got to take care of the taxes and the bills and the cleaning the floors and the maintenance of the building and all the rest of that stuff. You need it. And the question is, “can you do it without it dominating the company?” The data suggests that you can't.

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The rest of the world is also smart, what to do ?

Wednesday, October 28, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Business Insider

 Gabelli, the highest paid chief executive of a publicly traded Wall Street firm, then offered two pieces of sage advice to recent graduates hoping to make their fortune:

1. Work really hard

"The rest of the world is smart. You are smart. Just continue to focus, and have a passion for what you do, figure out what you like doing, and then do it 5 to 9, not 9 to 5."

2. Go without coffee and beer

"Instead of having one latte a day, put it in a bank and watch it grow. If you are 22, and 44 years later, you are 66, that one latte a day that you don't have, where you have a K-Cup you buy at Costco for $0.44, you get one less beer, you look at how much money you have saved.
"You will become not only an important saver but you will have incredible optionality and flexibility in your life independent of your other business."
These are two great pieces of advice. Yes the rest of the world is also smart, but most of the people don't like to work hard. This is your biggest advantage. Yes work hard may be your most important career weapon.

More about the same subject:

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/02/forget-about-balanced-life.html

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People will pay to live longer

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the ECONOMIST
That rise will occur because the underlying forces pushing up medical costs remain in place. In particular health spending is driven by technological advances that increase the scope and quality of medical interventions. These improvements are hugely valued by people, reflecting the fact that as they get richer (and older) their demand for health care rises. The bill is largely picked up by third parties, whether through public budgets or by insurers in the private sector. This weakens incentives to resist rising costs.

 http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21672340-new-study-suggests-current-hiatus-spending-will-be-temporary-pause



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This is reality! Negative top line growth

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Back on the Bike, need to lose some weight!

Monday, October 19, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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How to live longer

Friday, October 16, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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It's amazing that the things that make us live longer are nice things to do & cheap

 Be with your friends & Family, slow down a bit, eat less & go to Church. I guess Yoga should also do.





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Sorry no Deleverage at all

Friday, October 16, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From The Daily Shot
There is a lack of demand in the world if people stop borrowing more & more we would have serious deflation. I guess there is no way out.
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If you live in a big city, work like crazy! It works...............

Wednesday, October 14, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From FT Simon Kuper


I was driven out of London by house prices years before that became fashionable. My last residence was a rented shared slum above an off-licence in Marylebone. When the landlord threatened to tear it down in 2001, I faced the great London question: do I spend a fortune I don’t have on a grotty little flat and devote my life to servicing the mortgage? Instead I got on a Eurostar train, and three days later bought a nice flat in central Paris for £60,000…………………….


Paris is aiming for a feat that may be impossible: to be a great global city, but one whose citizens do not live in service to their mortgages. London is both a role model and a warning.



In Big cities where its "easy" (it is never easy) to make money usually its very expensive to rent a flat or to send kids to school. Perhaps that is the reason why if you live in NY or London it makes sense to work 14 hours a day 6 days a week. You have to make it fast, save and go back to a decent place to live. 

What's the point to work like a dog just to pay the rent?

If you live in a big city, work like crazy! It works...............


more about the same:

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/08/get-lucky-move-to-big-country.html

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Don't let them gather in a Ghetto !

Wednesday, October 14, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the FT

Spread the refugees, migrants. Don’t let them gather in a Getto

Boel Godner, Sodertalje’s Social Democrat mayor, is clear where the blame lies: Sweden’s immigration system, which allows new arrivals to choose where they want to live. As a result, many follow family and friends to suburbs like Ronna and other, equally segregated, parts of Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo. “We make people choose poverty,” she says. “So many [Assyrian] Christians can and do choose Sodertalje but that will make their situation much more difficult because they won’t learn Swedish.”



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Good Business

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the Daily Shot:
Issuing debt has become the German government's new profit center. New debt is issued with yields deeper in negative territory as investors pay the German government to hold their money. 
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Something is not working in JAPAN

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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If there is a machine that does my job almost for free................

Monday, October 12, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of China added over one billion workers to the world’s labor force
Too much of everything?

 The world produced too much stuff. There are 2 solutions, people & Governments borrow even more to increase demand or there is a recession, many factories close and supply goes down to meet demand. This only works if governments can sustained the people that lose their jobs in the recession.

 Automation is a deflationary factor. You can listen to music and watch movies almost for free. That is deflationary.................... Technology makes life better for the consumer but horrible for the competitors. if there is a machine that does my job almost for free................


 From the FT,
What does all this mean for the world’s policymakers gathered in Lima for the IMF and World Bank meetings? This is no time for complacency. The idea that slow growth is only a temporary consequence of the 2008 financial crisis is absurd. The latest data suggest growth is slowing in the US and it is already slow in Europe and Japan. A global economy near stall speed — and slowing — is one where the primary danger is recession.

 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1e912316-6b88-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3oMeQwCg5
From the WSJ
By   

The global economy is awash as never before in commodities like oil, cotton and iron ore, but also with capital and labor—a glut that presents several challenges as policy makers struggle to stoke demand.
“What we’re looking at is a low-growth, low-inflation, low-rate environment,” said Megan Greene, chief economist of John Hancock Asset Management, who added that the global economy could spend the next decade “working this off.”
The current state of plenty is confounding on many fronts. The surfeit of commodities depresses prices and stokes concerns of deflation. Global wealth—estimated by Credit Suisse at around $263 trillion, more than double the $117 trillion in 2000—represents a vast supply of savings and capital, helping to hold down interest rates, undermining the power of monetary policy. And the surplus of workers depresses wages.
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How much maths you learn is one of the best predictors of your future income! I am not sure that's enough ......................

Monday, October 12, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Stop teaching kids to add up — maths is more important

Conrad Wolfram



How much maths you learn is one of the best predictors of your future income. Knowledge of the subject is deemed so important that many countries (among them the US) offer special visa concessions to foreigners with a grounding in the subject.
Beneath the surface, however, there are serious cracks. Most students dislike maths, do not understand its connection to their later lives and do badly at tests even as the questions grow easier. Universities and employers complain that they cannot find people with the right skills. Maths, as it is taught today, will not be a mainstream school subject in 20 years’ time. Either it will succumb to a hostile takeover or it will be run out of business.
Actually, “mathematics” is the wrong word for much of what is taught in schools. Rather, students learn to calculate. That is an obsolete skill, since almost all calculating is done by computer these days. 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bcfb1f30-6cf9-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3oMY9BzNe

I certainly don't disagree with Conrad that the people who know maths & programming are doing very well in this world. However i believe that what differentiates those who do well and those who don't is the character/grit and will to win.


Your vision of where or who you want to be is the greatest asset you have
― Paul Arden

Overcoming adversity is what produces character. And character, even more than IQ, is what leads to real and lasting success.

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2012/09/character-even-more-than-iq-is-what.html




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Nobody checks their phones anymore............

Tuesday, October 06, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From The FT

If you are an American aged under 25, then much of your social life probably consists of sitting around with your friends sending messages to absent friends. You will sometimes even message people sitting next to you. You rarely do one thing uninterrupted for as long as three minutes. You never experience boredom, uninterrupted conversation or even solitude — because the moment you are alone, you turn to your phone. And young Americans are merely extreme cases. Most of us have these dysfunctions. …………….

Living like this has consequences. Starved of conversations, many young people struggle to develop empathy, says Turkle. Their friendships become superficial. And their minds don’t wander into creative thought, because the instant they scent boredom they turn to their phones. Solitude thus becomes a problem to be solved.

Log out, switch off, join in

Simon Kuper from the FT

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fc76fce2-67b3-11e5-97d0-1456a776a4f5.html

I don't know what is going to happen to this generation that don't mind to be interrupted anytime by anything. Perhaps it's an advantage to be able to multitask. One of the biggest & best football managers of all times Jorge Mendes (yes from CR7) has 3 phones and is constantly speaking with their players like a baby sitter during all day even when having lunch with anyone. He is always available to his players.

On the other spectrum I had a boss that never was interrupted, he left the cell phone to the secretary and once or twice a day he run's call's to everybody on the list. He doesn't use a computer or check emails (The secretary does). He does meetings, asks questions and reads. He had very good results. When i was with him i had 100% of his attention.

My view is that to do well in life you need focus, big focus and undivided attention.Hard problems are difficult to solve sometimes you need to obsess many hours/days to solve them. If you are jumping from this to that eventually you will never solve hard problems.

I want to live in a world like this one described by Simon Kuper

I see how this works in Paris, where I live, where it’s still possible to have a three-hour dinner with friends during which nobody checks their phone, except discreetly on toilet visits


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