Soon there will be no more FIAT's in the road

Tuesday, February 24, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The Euro must work but it's likely to fail

From Gideon Rachman, FT

Ever since a single European currency was first mooted, I have believed that it would eventually collapse. That belief is based on three simple propositions. First, a currency union cannot ultimately survive unless it is backed by a political union. Second, there will be no political union in Europe because there is no common political identity to underpin it. And so, third — the euro will collapse.
Plenty of people have attempted to convince me, over the years, that each of these three propositions is simple-minded and wrong. But events keep driving me back to the idea that the euro lacks the political and economic underpinning that it needs to survive.

The Greek crisis is a case in point. The most passionate pro-Europeans are right that the only long-term alleviation of the problems of the weaker economies in the eurozone would be to set up a genuine transfer union, in which tax revenues automatically flow from rich areas, such as Germany, to poor areas, such as Greece. But that is never going to happen because the Germans and Greeks do not trust and like each other enough to merge their fates in a real political union. 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/811a8778-bb45-11e4-b95c-00144feab7de.html#axzz3SgchnxWr

The Euro is a very good thing. You can travel across Europe without giving money to banks to exchange your national money. Students can study in any school in Europe. We have the same rules. Euro is a good store of value for your savings.

However Italy cannot devalue and since it loses a bit every year vs Germay& The northern countries,  Italy is getting poor slowly. Since there are no transfers from Germany Italy has a bit of an incentive to leave and devaue they currency again. Soon there will be no more FIAT's. If Italy exit they will devalue and the FIAT's can be back again at least for the domestic market.

 With a Single market only the best will survive and the best is not FIAT.


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What college you went to doesn’t matter

Tuesday, February 24, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The only thing a top tier college is good for is getting you your first job through connections. But even that’s diminished these days to some degree because technology makes it easier than ever to network if you know what you’re doing.

 Ben Carlson

 I agree with him, top tier colleges are good to have the right friends. That helps for life and not only on the first job.

 On top of this companies don't know how to hire so they use the diplomas the colleges you are coming to sort candidates. The best schools win.


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Let's Party

Tuesday, February 24, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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When I see a bubble forming I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire

George Soros


FTSE joins the US & German party

FTSE today closes at 6950, above 6930 from 1999




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Don't marry too soon!

Tuesday, February 24, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Some good advice from Guy Kawasaki

 Don’t get married too soon. I got married when I was thirty-two. That’s about the right age. Until you’re about that age, you may not know who you are. You also may not know who you’re marrying. I don’t know anyone who got married too late. I know many people who got married too young.
Obey the absolutes. When you were young, it was absolutely wrong to lie, cheat, or steal. When you enter the workforce, you will be tempted to think in relative terms. As you grow older, you will see that right and wrong seems to change from absolute to relative. This is wrong: right is right and wrong is wrong forever.
Enjoy your family and friends before they are gone. Nothing–not money, power, or fame–can replace your family and friends or bring them back once they are gone. You probably have delusions of immortality right now—that’s natural. At least consider that while you may be immortal, those around you are not.
One more thing. When you were a child, you thought your parents were always right. Through high school and college, you thought your parents were always wrong. After college, you’ll realize that your parents were often right. And then, believe it or not, you’ll eventually become your parents. Wrap your young mind around that…. 

 http://guykawasaki.com/my-advice-to-22-year-olds/
If i have to give advice to my kids i would give 2:

 1.Be different

 2.Even if you do what everybody does if you work hard, be the first to show up, be diligent and be a bit perfectionist you will do well no matter what. The power of working hard/well is unappreciated. Most people do the minimum. Always do a bit more and that makes a big difference.
I always wanted to be different. I always wanted to be first.
Miuccia Prada 
Talent is cheaper than table salt. What separates the talented individual from the successful one is a lot of hard work.
Stephen King

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Law No.1: "It's better to be first than it is to be better."

Monday, February 23, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Dax is trading at the all time high. 11,0000

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2015/01/the-big-winner-of-euro-experience-is.html
The smart money always loses money shorting bubbles because they cannot comprehend that it could go as high as it does

- Jim Rogers
Germany is the big winner with the USA of Globalization. Why? because when i want to buy a dialysis machine you can find the following in the Fersenius website.

 Fresenius Medical Care reached a remarkable milestone today when the company, the world’s largest provider of dialysis products and services, produced its 500,000th dialysis machine. The machine, from the multiple prize-winning 5008 series, came off the production line at the Schweinfurt, Germany plant and was donated to the Deutsche Nierenstiftung, a German non-profit organization for dialysis and kidney transplants. 

 What 500,000 ! they are obvius the nº1 in the world.

 and if you run trough the DAX or the S&P you will find many companies that are the nº1 in their spaces. In my country , Portugal, besides Pulp &Paper, corks and Olive Oil we are not nº1 in anything. 

 Why is important to be nº1? Because you can invest in R&D, you have more experience and you can hire the best and the most briliant. Besides this you can pay more for the tallent.

 And last but not least when a prospect wants to buy a TV and he is not an expert manytimes they could ask who is the nº1! That is simple.

 that is why Al Ries said 30 yeas ago that

 Law No.1: "It's better to be first than it is to be better."
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Be different of be poor

Thursday, February 19, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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In order to be irreplaceable one must always be different.

Coco Chanel 

Strategy is about making choices, trade-offs; it's about deliberately choosing to be different.
Michael Porter


I want to be different. If everyone is wearing black, I want to be wearing red.
Maria Sharapova


Of course when we put our kids in the same schools with thousand of other kids where they are expected to do the same things and behave in the same way they tend to be similar to the other kids and of course easily replaceble




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A country that is bankrupt should borrow at 3%?

Wednesday, February 18, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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French President Francois Hollande (R) talks to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (L) during a European Union leaders summit in Brussels.





















The debt/GDP ratio at 175% is almost double the level at which Reinhardt/Rogoff have argued sovereign debt becomes unsustainable!

 From Eureka Hedge Fund Monthly Leter

 A country like Greece pays to Troika 3% interest

 what should they pay in normal conditions? 10% to 20% yields?

 at least. 

 Greece has been subsidized for too long. That is the reason they are with this debt load. If they pay market priced they would not be in this position. It would be very expensive.

 what to do.

 Nothing, zero. !

 let them ask for something concrete.

 Europe should not move. Nada. Zero. 

 Let them beg

 Sometimes i think what is the most demanding religion on earth? I guess to be a Muslim is pretty much demanding and time consuming (twice a day prayers, etc...)

 What is the most growing religion on earth , the most demand or the less demanding?

 I think the Euro would be much more strong and reliable if sometimes some member would be kicked out 

 I am thinking of Greece

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member.
 Groucho Marx
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To this day Ferrero’s workers have never gone on strike!

Wednesday, February 18, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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“We were born a family company and intend to stay that way.”

Giovanni Ferrero, the son of Michele the founder that just passed away

 “I pledge myself to devote all my activities and all my efforts to this company,” it said. “And I assure you that I shall only feel satisfied when I have managed, with concrete results, to guarantee you and your children a safe and tranquil future.”

Michele Ferrero, 1957 


From FT


Perched on the edge of a river in the Piedmont region, the presence of Nutella is clear from merely smelling the air in the nearby medieval town where it is based. Here, Ferrero, which owns the Nutella, Tic Tac and Kinder brands, has defied the lure of 21st century capitalism and remained fiercely family controlled and conservatively run.



From the Guardian

Secrecy was a personal Ferrero hallmark, too. He never gave a newspaper interview, refused to accept honorary degrees and, according to a report in the daily Corriere della Sera, scrutinised prospective employees from behind a two-way mirror. Because of an eye affliction, he took to wearing dark glasses that made him seem even more remote during his rare public appearances.

What can i say, most of the mergers i know there are no synergies only value destruction. These guys where able to build strong brands, Nutella, Ferrero Rocher and of Course Kinder. The most important thing in the world is to build an image to build a brand. The people who did that are doing very well. The people who think the best product wins are wrong. Yes the best product win's but it's the best product inside the customer mind.

The marketing guy is the most important person in a company.



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Best among the worst = Spain

Monday, February 16, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/02/13/italy-is-europes-ticking-time-bomb/


I was surprised by Spain results i thought since the Euro inception the GDP of all the southern countries that where addicted to devalue their currencies a bit every year was flat to down. But Spain did a good job. why? I think Spain does good in 3 things

 best business schools in Europe
Huge investment in sports (Tennis, Motorbikes, Formula 1, Football, Golf ) 
big move to Lat-am by the biggest companies (Santander, BBVA, etc....) 


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i want the same as GREECE!

Monday, February 16, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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There are plenty of countries in Europe with debt problems. In 2014, Greece paid 4.3 percent of its gross domestic product to service its debt. That’s a smaller percentage than paid by Portugal and Italy (on this chart of interest payments on government debt as a share of GDP, Greece is denoted by the acronym EL, Portugal is PT and Italy is IT):

 http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-13/greece-is-cutting-line-for-debt-relief?alcmpid=view

 Of course i have zero sympathy for Greek demands. They already spent the money and now they don't want to pay it back.

 That is not nice!

 If they want to default they can do that.

 Even if they stop paying i think they should not expelled from the euro (If a US state defaults they are not expelled from the Union)

 People who lend money to GREECE should pay the price for behing greedy.

 More about the same:

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2015/02/greece.html

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ZERO is Good

Tuesday, February 10, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Many people see deflation as a temporary event due to oil collapse.

 I see a permanent one because of automation, big productivity and lack of demand. Excess capacity leads to deflation.

 In a a short while people will be happy with Bunds at ZERO!

 More about the Same:

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/01/qe-forever.html


http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/12/europe-in-deflation.html


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This is why I don't vote................

Tuesday, February 10, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I think everybody should copy SYRIZA! It's really a good program, no Austerity, no pay what you owe, more wages, more government jobs where people don't have to work!

it's a free lunch!

I think all the parties in Europe that have the same message will win.

it's really a good program!

“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy...

― Alexander Fraser Tytler



The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples' money.
Margaret Thatcher


Democracy must be something more than two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.
James Bovard

In a democracy the poor will have more power than the rich, because there are more of them, and the will of the majority is supreme.
Aristotle

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Automation

Thursday, February 05, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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One of the last vestiges of the swashbuckling era of commodities floor trading is fading away.
CME Group Inc., the world’s largest futures-market operator, said Wednesday it is closing most of its futures trading pits in Chicago and New York as electronic trading has become the overwhelmingly dominant way futures contracts are bought and sold. The move, which will take effect by July 2, brings to a close nearly 150 years of barking and jostling over the price of grain, oil and interest-rate contracts.

The true is that machines can do a lot of things better than humans. Do you think the pace that machines get better is going to slow? I don't think so. There is a way out! everything  that is physical with movement man is much better than machines.

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Don't look too much at the score! just play

Thursday, February 05, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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We investigate whether short-termism distorts the investment decisions of stock
market listed firms. To do so, we compare the investment behavior of observably
similar public and private firms using a new data source on private U.S. firms,
assuming for identification that closely held private firms are subject to fewer shorttermist
pressures. Our results show that compared to private firms, public firms invest
substantially less and are less responsive to changes in investment opportunities,
especially in industries in which stock prices are most sensitive to earnings news.
These findings are consistent with the notion that short-termist pressures distort their
investment decisions.
.....................

As Holmström (1982), Narayanan (1985), Miller and Rock (1985), Stein (1989), Shleifer and Vishny (1990), and von Thadden (1995) have argued, a focus on a firm’s short-term profits or its current share price will distort investment decisions from the first-best if investors have incomplete information about how much the firm should invest to maximize its long-term value. Foregoing positive NPV projects boosts current earnings, and thereby today’s share price, by reducing “depreciation charges to earnings or other start-up charges” (Graham, Harvey, and Rajgopal (2005)).

Asker, John, Joan Farre-Mensa, and Alexander Ljungqvist (2014)

There is nothing new here. Public companies are obsessed about the quarterly numbers  on top of this they have a huge amount of regulation that private companies don't. There is no point to be listed these days.

Transparency is something that doesn't make sense, it's like giving secrets to your competitors.

keep your game for yourself if you can!


The secret of business is to know something that nobody else knows.
Aristotle Onassis

I want to be with those who know secret things or else alone.
Rainer Maria Rilke

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Greece

Thursday, February 05, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Varoufakis’ idea of a winning strategy is to hold a gun to his own head and then demand a
ransom for not pulling the trigger.

Anatole Kalensky, From GaveKal

The Troika idea is i lend you a lot of money but you have to do some things that i think are good for your country. That is not working for 2 reasons

1.The countries don't do the full package of measures that the Troika recommends. In Portugal we didn't cut the Public expenditures (Only raised taxes)

2.People are ultraged of having someone telling them what to do.

Of course that austerity is the only way out, but we can't expect the south countries to figure out that what the northern countries do works. We know better of course.

What to do? Prepare for the worst, don't lent to bankrupt countries and eventually prepare to shore up the people who lent to Greece.

The ideia of protecting the lenders of Greece by sending more and more money to Greece is not working. 

People can not live on credit forever.

They have to live with what they have. With that i agree with SYRIZA

more links

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2015/01/hollande-n2.html
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Not a smart move

Thursday, February 05, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Quartz, John Kerry lands in Ukraine. The US secretary of state will meet president Petro Poroshenko for an update on the fighting in the east of the country. Earlier this week, reports emerged that the US was preparing to provide Ukraine with weapons in its fight against pro-Russian separatists.
Some 20 years ago there was a Russian empire. It fell apart with no blood tks to Gorbachev etc... Now Russia is back on their feet and they are not happy with some things that are happening in their borders. Yes Ukraine is like CUBA or MEXICO for the USA. To put some economic pressure on Russia because the west want the military buildup of RUSSIA to stop it's ok. To send Guns i think it's a bad idea.


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Time to visit Japan

Tuesday, February 03, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The Big Mac Index is a good indicator to choose where to travel . Last year i went to South Africa. It's good to be able to dinner at the best restaurants and pay the same price or cheaper than i pay in Lisbon.


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No more jobs

Tuesday, February 03, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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And though the idea may be theoretical in most countries now, a few places, like Switzerland, are considering actually putting it in place, with a yearly income of 30,000 Swiss francs guaranteed just for being alive.

 http://www.fastcoexist.com/3041719/change-generation/work-is-bullshit-the-argument-for-antiwork?partner=rss

 Twenty years ago, Jeremy Rifkin estimated that about 75% of jobs in industrialized countries included tasks that could be at least partially automated, and as artificial intelligence and engineering improves, that number keeps getting higher.
No more jobs for the simple reason that it's not necessary for everybody to work! 

 If in a small closed village where everybody is a farmer and produces some vegetables& grains if someone buys a Tractor he will produce enough for everybody very cheaply. That is the problem of automation. Soon you have excess production of everything!

 What to do about this?

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/09/where-there-is-no-work-there-is-no.html

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/11/stayin-home.html



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