Why Cities Live forever and Companies Die a lot and faster ?

Friday, October 30, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Because as companies grow they are captured/dominated by bureaucracy. In a big city there is a lot of crazy people. In a big company all the crazy people are fired and replaced by organized and reliable people.

 That is why companies die a lot. Predictable people do predictable & boring things.

Lifespan of  Large Companies, Richard Foster


http://edge.org/conversation/geoffrey_west-why-cities-keep-growing-corporations-and-people-always-die-and-life-gets
From John Brokman
The great thing about cities, the thing that is amazing about cities is as they grow, so to speak, their dimensionality increases. That is, the space of opportunity, the space of functions, the space of jobs just continually increases. And the data shows that. If you look at job categories, it continually increases. I'll use the word "dimensionality."  It opens up. And in fact, one of the great things about cities is that it supports crazy people. You walk down Fifth Avenue, you see crazy people. There are always crazy people. Well, that's good. Cities are tolerant of extraordinary diversity. ...
This is in complete contrast to companies. The Google boys in the back garage so to speak with ideas of the search engine, were no doubt promoting all kinds of crazy ideas and maybe having even crazy people around them.
Well, Google is a bit of an exception, because it still tolerates some of that. But most companies start out probably with some of that buzz. But the data indicates that at about 50 employees to a hundred that buzz starts to stop. A company that was more multi dimensional, more evolved, becomes uni dimensional. It closes down.
Indeed, if you go to General Motors or you go to American Airlines or you go to Goldman Sachs, you don't see crazy people. Crazy people are fired. Well, to speak of crazy people, is taking the extreme. But maverick people are often fired.
It's not surprising to learn that when manufacturing companies are on a down turn, they decrease research and development, and in fact in some cases, do actually get rid of it, thinking this is "oh, we can get that back in two years we'll be back on track."
Well, this kind of thinking kills them. This is part of the killing, and this is part of the change from superlinear to sublinear, namely companies allow themselves to be dominated by bureaucracy and administration over creativity and innovation, and unfortunately, it's necessary. You cannot run a company without administrative. Someone has got to take care of the taxes and the bills and the cleaning the floors and the maintenance of the building and all the rest of that stuff. You need it. And the question is, “can you do it without it dominating the company?” The data suggests that you can't.

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The rest of the world is also smart, what to do ?

Wednesday, October 28, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Business Insider

 Gabelli, the highest paid chief executive of a publicly traded Wall Street firm, then offered two pieces of sage advice to recent graduates hoping to make their fortune:

1. Work really hard

"The rest of the world is smart. You are smart. Just continue to focus, and have a passion for what you do, figure out what you like doing, and then do it 5 to 9, not 9 to 5."

2. Go without coffee and beer

"Instead of having one latte a day, put it in a bank and watch it grow. If you are 22, and 44 years later, you are 66, that one latte a day that you don't have, where you have a K-Cup you buy at Costco for $0.44, you get one less beer, you look at how much money you have saved.
"You will become not only an important saver but you will have incredible optionality and flexibility in your life independent of your other business."
These are two great pieces of advice. Yes the rest of the world is also smart, but most of the people don't like to work hard. This is your biggest advantage. Yes work hard may be your most important career weapon.

More about the same subject:

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/02/forget-about-balanced-life.html

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People will pay to live longer

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the ECONOMIST
That rise will occur because the underlying forces pushing up medical costs remain in place. In particular health spending is driven by technological advances that increase the scope and quality of medical interventions. These improvements are hugely valued by people, reflecting the fact that as they get richer (and older) their demand for health care rises. The bill is largely picked up by third parties, whether through public budgets or by insurers in the private sector. This weakens incentives to resist rising costs.

 http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21672340-new-study-suggests-current-hiatus-spending-will-be-temporary-pause



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This is reality! Negative top line growth

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Back on the Bike, need to lose some weight!

Monday, October 19, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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How to live longer

Friday, October 16, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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It's amazing that the things that make us live longer are nice things to do & cheap

 Be with your friends & Family, slow down a bit, eat less & go to Church. I guess Yoga should also do.





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Sorry no Deleverage at all

Friday, October 16, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From The Daily Shot
There is a lack of demand in the world if people stop borrowing more & more we would have serious deflation. I guess there is no way out.
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If you live in a big city, work like crazy! It works...............

Wednesday, October 14, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From FT Simon Kuper


I was driven out of London by house prices years before that became fashionable. My last residence was a rented shared slum above an off-licence in Marylebone. When the landlord threatened to tear it down in 2001, I faced the great London question: do I spend a fortune I don’t have on a grotty little flat and devote my life to servicing the mortgage? Instead I got on a Eurostar train, and three days later bought a nice flat in central Paris for £60,000…………………….


Paris is aiming for a feat that may be impossible: to be a great global city, but one whose citizens do not live in service to their mortgages. London is both a role model and a warning.



In Big cities where its "easy" (it is never easy) to make money usually its very expensive to rent a flat or to send kids to school. Perhaps that is the reason why if you live in NY or London it makes sense to work 14 hours a day 6 days a week. You have to make it fast, save and go back to a decent place to live. 

What's the point to work like a dog just to pay the rent?

If you live in a big city, work like crazy! It works...............


more about the same:

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/08/get-lucky-move-to-big-country.html

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Don't let them gather in a Ghetto !

Wednesday, October 14, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the FT

Spread the refugees, migrants. Don’t let them gather in a Getto

Boel Godner, Sodertalje’s Social Democrat mayor, is clear where the blame lies: Sweden’s immigration system, which allows new arrivals to choose where they want to live. As a result, many follow family and friends to suburbs like Ronna and other, equally segregated, parts of Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo. “We make people choose poverty,” she says. “So many [Assyrian] Christians can and do choose Sodertalje but that will make their situation much more difficult because they won’t learn Swedish.”



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Good Business

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the Daily Shot:
Issuing debt has become the German government's new profit center. New debt is issued with yields deeper in negative territory as investors pay the German government to hold their money. 
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Something is not working in JAPAN

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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If there is a machine that does my job almost for free................

Monday, October 12, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of China added over one billion workers to the world’s labor force
Too much of everything?

 The world produced too much stuff. There are 2 solutions, people & Governments borrow even more to increase demand or there is a recession, many factories close and supply goes down to meet demand. This only works if governments can sustained the people that lose their jobs in the recession.

 Automation is a deflationary factor. You can listen to music and watch movies almost for free. That is deflationary.................... Technology makes life better for the consumer but horrible for the competitors. if there is a machine that does my job almost for free................


 From the FT,
What does all this mean for the world’s policymakers gathered in Lima for the IMF and World Bank meetings? This is no time for complacency. The idea that slow growth is only a temporary consequence of the 2008 financial crisis is absurd. The latest data suggest growth is slowing in the US and it is already slow in Europe and Japan. A global economy near stall speed — and slowing — is one where the primary danger is recession.

 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1e912316-6b88-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3oMeQwCg5
From the WSJ
By   

The global economy is awash as never before in commodities like oil, cotton and iron ore, but also with capital and labor—a glut that presents several challenges as policy makers struggle to stoke demand.
“What we’re looking at is a low-growth, low-inflation, low-rate environment,” said Megan Greene, chief economist of John Hancock Asset Management, who added that the global economy could spend the next decade “working this off.”
The current state of plenty is confounding on many fronts. The surfeit of commodities depresses prices and stokes concerns of deflation. Global wealth—estimated by Credit Suisse at around $263 trillion, more than double the $117 trillion in 2000—represents a vast supply of savings and capital, helping to hold down interest rates, undermining the power of monetary policy. And the surplus of workers depresses wages.
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How much maths you learn is one of the best predictors of your future income! I am not sure that's enough ......................

Monday, October 12, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Stop teaching kids to add up — maths is more important

Conrad Wolfram



How much maths you learn is one of the best predictors of your future income. Knowledge of the subject is deemed so important that many countries (among them the US) offer special visa concessions to foreigners with a grounding in the subject.
Beneath the surface, however, there are serious cracks. Most students dislike maths, do not understand its connection to their later lives and do badly at tests even as the questions grow easier. Universities and employers complain that they cannot find people with the right skills. Maths, as it is taught today, will not be a mainstream school subject in 20 years’ time. Either it will succumb to a hostile takeover or it will be run out of business.
Actually, “mathematics” is the wrong word for much of what is taught in schools. Rather, students learn to calculate. That is an obsolete skill, since almost all calculating is done by computer these days. 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bcfb1f30-6cf9-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3oMY9BzNe

I certainly don't disagree with Conrad that the people who know maths & programming are doing very well in this world. However i believe that what differentiates those who do well and those who don't is the character/grit and will to win.


Your vision of where or who you want to be is the greatest asset you have
― Paul Arden

Overcoming adversity is what produces character. And character, even more than IQ, is what leads to real and lasting success.

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2012/09/character-even-more-than-iq-is-what.html




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Nobody checks their phones anymore............

Tuesday, October 06, 2015 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From The FT

If you are an American aged under 25, then much of your social life probably consists of sitting around with your friends sending messages to absent friends. You will sometimes even message people sitting next to you. You rarely do one thing uninterrupted for as long as three minutes. You never experience boredom, uninterrupted conversation or even solitude — because the moment you are alone, you turn to your phone. And young Americans are merely extreme cases. Most of us have these dysfunctions. …………….

Living like this has consequences. Starved of conversations, many young people struggle to develop empathy, says Turkle. Their friendships become superficial. And their minds don’t wander into creative thought, because the instant they scent boredom they turn to their phones. Solitude thus becomes a problem to be solved.

Log out, switch off, join in

Simon Kuper from the FT

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fc76fce2-67b3-11e5-97d0-1456a776a4f5.html

I don't know what is going to happen to this generation that don't mind to be interrupted anytime by anything. Perhaps it's an advantage to be able to multitask. One of the biggest & best football managers of all times Jorge Mendes (yes from CR7) has 3 phones and is constantly speaking with their players like a baby sitter during all day even when having lunch with anyone. He is always available to his players.

On the other spectrum I had a boss that never was interrupted, he left the cell phone to the secretary and once or twice a day he run's call's to everybody on the list. He doesn't use a computer or check emails (The secretary does). He does meetings, asks questions and reads. He had very good results. When i was with him i had 100% of his attention.

My view is that to do well in life you need focus, big focus and undivided attention.Hard problems are difficult to solve sometimes you need to obsess many hours/days to solve them. If you are jumping from this to that eventually you will never solve hard problems.

I want to live in a world like this one described by Simon Kuper

I see how this works in Paris, where I live, where it’s still possible to have a three-hour dinner with friends during which nobody checks their phone, except discreetly on toilet visits


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