Robots ultimately may make better employees than humans in a lot of ways

Thursday, January 28, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Dr. Ed Yardeni Blog

 “Automation is inevitable. It’s a tool to produce abundance for little effort. We need to start thinking now about what to do when large sections of the population are unemployable through no fault of their own. What to do in a future where, for most jobs, humans need not apply,” said a C.G.P. Grey YouTube video as quoted in a 9/5 Barron’s thought piece. In the same regard, HBR warned that “we will soon be looking at hordes of citizens of zero economic value. Figuring out how to deal with the impacts of this development will be the greatest challenge facing free market economies in this century.” 

 Robots ultimately may make better employees than humans in a lot of ways. They don’t need to take bio breaks, eat lunch, go home to see their families, or sleep. And you won’t find them making trips to the water cooler, getting involved in office politics, or otherwise losing focus from assigned tasks. They can work anywhere and won’t hesitate to relocate. They can operate in dangerous environments without requiring employers to worry about lawsuits. They won’t care, complain, or get frustrated unless they’re programmed to do so--or learn to on their own. 

 Ifa man with a tractor can do a job of 200 man it's obvious that one day only 10 to 20% of the populations will need to work!
In many cases the biggest cost a company has is Labor. So if you want to cut costs you have to cut labor. Automation is a way to do it. I expect more and more people become without job. 

what will people do?

Some people will do R&D. Study for life. They will be well paid. They will program the computers, they will invent the Future..
Lot's of people will have cheap jobs serving tables, cleaning, driving, delivering, babysitting, etc...
The rest will engage in sports and other activities to spend their time, some will be depressed of course. 
many will figure out that they paid for an education that is worthless


The government will pay people to survive. That is the big trend.

With this scenario it's obvious that the owners of the companies and the r&D  workers that i mentioned before will make almost all the money. The rest will survive.

The left parties will win more & more. Their policies will not work of course.

I forgot, the sport Stars like CR7 and Leo Messi will make more & more money. Idle people will pay a lot to spend their time watching their stars.



more about the same:

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/12/one-victim-of-automation-is-marriage.html
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Drink and party until you die !

Tuesday, January 26, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the FT , The Happiness Principal

“If people want every day to be drunk or to spend all day smoking or have five cats cluttering up their apartment, who are we to stop them? It is you who must decide what is good for you,” he says.
Whatever residents want, within reason, Humanitas provides. This is Becker’s “yes culture” — the term recurs constantly, along with several others: “extended family”, “be your own boss” and “use it or lose it” — meaning focus on what’s still working, not what’s not, and make the best use of it.

Becker’s rejection of conventional care homes is fierce and personal. “People there are patronised,” he says. “I have always hated to be patronised.” Draconian rules combine with a focus on illness and degeneration to rob people of their independence. He calls them “islands of misery”. Early on, he worried that clients wouldn’t take this iconoclastic message of self-empowerment seriously. So he set an example. “For the first few months, I came every afternoon drunk at the bar,” he says.
Back in the Humanitas bar, I battle the gin and tonic to summon some critical acumen: surely a paean to life’s intoxicating pleasures is no foundation for a model of senior living? Becker is dismissive. “The alcohol is incidental; I don’t care what people do.” The point is to listen to what people want and focus your efforts there. This means throwing off the medical obsession with poor health and decline.

“You complain to the nurse that you have a bad knee. She costs 50 cents per minute. You see the doctor; he is €1 per minute. You see the physio; he is 75 cents per minute. Four hours of spending money and still your knee is hurting — of course it is; you are old. But if I put a cat on your knee, or you spend four hours at the bar, you are not thinking about your knee.”
This is a compelling business model, I observe. Bartenders are cheaper than doctors. His focus on cultivating independence saw staff-resident ratios slashed by a factor of three. In 20 years, he says, Humanitas went from making a loss to a surplus of €54m, which was ploughed back into renovation, decoration and new homes.
That his model costs less is incidental, however. The point is that people are happier, he says, launching into another anecdote. A woman aged 99 arrived from a care home where there were no facilities in which to cook — one of her longstanding passions. At Humanitas she started again. “Aged 104 she told me ‘I am tired and ready to die now but you must promise me: lay out my body in my flat so people can say goodbye’. I agreed. A few days later she had passed away.”

 I hope i have money to pay for this! i don't want to have a nurse until i die.!
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Why CR7 can make more money than any football player ever did.

Monday, January 25, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the Economist,

 The tech economy is a ruthless meritocracy. “A great lathe operator commands several times the wage of an average lathe operator,” Bill Gates once said, “but a great writer of software code is worth 10,000 times the price of an average software writer.” The most talented workers can command princes’ ransoms. Google reportedly offered a star engineer $3.5m in stock to dissuade him from defecting to Facebook. And Facebook paid $1 billion for Instagram, mainly to hire its 13 employees. But in this business those who are merely good, rather than great, are expendable; they can expect to labour in obscurity while the stars get the credit.
In the internet age it pays big time to be good. CR7 can make more money than any football player ever did. why? because he is the best of all times? of course not. It's just that these days with you tube, Facebook, etc....   when you do well you have a huge huge audience. It pays to be popular. it pays to work hard like never not only is sports & entertainment but also in software as Bill gates mentions



 More about the same:

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/02/forget-about-balanced-life.html

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Move to a new Country

Wednesday, January 20, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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In Portugal Government makes life very difficult so a good way out has been to move to a better country a more organized country!


http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/08/get-lucky-move-to-big-country.html






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why the markets are falling?

Wednesday, January 20, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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It looks Central Banks are loosing the battle against deflation! yes QE & zero rates are not working so well lately. Before Draghi gave a conference call and the markets explode higher. Today the market is a bit insensitive. They need to start sending money to be spent asap.



 Structural deflation is the backbone of the macro outlook we endorsed for the last few years

 Francesco Filia , From Fanasara Capital
What are the drivers for Deflation?

 Falling working population
over-indebtedness
Diminishing effects of monetary policy
Technological Advances
I have to agree with this very smart Macro manager. Deflation is the big menace. Debt and Tech are two very deflationary drivers. Technological improvements can help do more with less and replace people with machines. That is not going to stop.
The human race faces one its most dangerous centuries yet as progress in science and technology becomes an ever greater threat to our existence.
Stephen Hawking 

 My view is that even the green arrows in the graph below (costs have soared in the last 10 years) will turn down soon.


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Easy way always the same result

Monday, January 18, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Poverty & Big Queues

More about Venezuela: http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2015/04/at-last-good-idea-from-venezuela.html



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First Pain then....................

Friday, January 15, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Every global recession since 1970 has followed a sharp increase in oil prices, not a decline. And economic analysis supports the same conclusion, since a US$60 fall in oil prices redistributes US$2trn of income annually from producers to consumers and also guarantees extremely dovish central banks………………………………
To put it another way, the sharp fall in oil prices this year has certainly been disruptive, but a low price level, once it stabilizes, should be good for economic growth.

Anatole Kaletsky

This is a very smart guy and I pay attention to what he says. However I see a bit of disruption and loss of money everywhere. A lot of oil companies will be bankrupt, wind and solar will be comparatively very expensive. If real estate market fell 50% in one day what would happen? It would be very good for the people who want to buy a house but everybody that has one house on credit would be bankrupt in one day. What I want to say is that this big moves are very painfull in the short term and a lot of wealth is destroyed.


Another headwind are the oil companies that had their below the ground reserves valued at 100 and now are valued at 30! That is a big big fall. Someone is loosing a lot of money. In conclusion I see pain before blue skies. He are already in Bear Market territory in most of the markets.

more about the same:

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/11/why-oil-is-going-down.html


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when not to try to look Smart

Tuesday, January 12, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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People at the end of the day want normal people to work with them everyday. If you behave very eccentric/crazy in a job interview you are not going to get the position even if you have a good story to tell about.






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Llife is becoming impossible for the average dumb person

Tuesday, January 12, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From A Gary Shilling excellent INSIGHT


To me this is only going to get worse, why? Because life is becoming impossible for the average dumb person. There are not enough easy jobs where you just have to show up and do something very simple.


Not everybody can think & program. Not everybody can spend the day studying & inventing the new thing. Not everybody is diligent.

what is the way out besides getting some money from the Goverment

you can do some simple and necessary jobs like restaurant clerk, security, massagist, athlete, personal trainer etc..... But you can't take a degree in sociology, history, philosophy, , management, economy or English and expect to have an office job moving some papers around.




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Market doesn't look good

Monday, January 11, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Markets don’t look good. When a market is oversold and can’t rebound even for a day is not a good sign. What is the problem in the world? Excess capacity/oversupply vs lack of Demand. What to do? Try to survive the storm because after the storm always comes good warm weather.

Cartoon of the Day: Happy Hour? - bull drinking 01.08.2016
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A good way of putting things in prespective

Thursday, January 07, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Technology & Science will prevail vs Myth & fear, choose your camp

Monday, January 04, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Nuclear energy: Beijing’s power play

From the FT Christopher Adams and Lucy Hornby

Following Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, few western countries have been building reactors. But the UK is pushing ahead with plans for 16 gigawatts of new capacity by 2025 — compared with 10GW now — supplying about one-sixth of its electricity needs.

Behind this British nuclear renaissance are demanding targets to cut carbon emissions and a desire to reduce dependence on imported gas. Nuclear energy needs to be part of the mix because it is more reliable than renewables, which depend on sunshine, wind or tides, ministers say. It is controversial, however: many people are opposed on safety grounds, while some have raised national security concerns about allowing China to build plants in the country.

China is already on a nuclear building spree. It is beginning construction of a reactor every few months to meet a goal — made all the more urgent by Beijing’s smog — of non-fossil fuels providing one-fifth of energy consumption by 2030. It also wants to export its nuclear construction expertise and, ultimately, its designs. And it senses an unprecedented commercial opportunity in Britain.

Well i have no doubt that we need to embrace technology & science. Nuclear is a god blessing and we should use it as much as it make sense. The smart countries are doing exactly that. To me China is a smart country that did a miracle in the last 30 years of bringing millions of people out of the middle ages.

They have the work ethic and the drive, time will ensure China will be a superpower in everything. They work more, government & politics is a non issue and property is respected (sort off ***). With some minor glitches they are in the right way.


***If you are corrupt they make you disappear

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why you should rent and not own property !

Monday, January 04, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the FT

Property levies would ease the robot attack on income tax

Neasa MacErlean

 The rulers of ancient Rome regarded income tax as a measure to be avoided. A levy on wages would not have raised much, anyway; the hardest working people were slaves, who made up 15 to 25 per cent of the population and had no earnings at all. Instead, the Romans taxed property. Citizens paid a levy on everything they owned — their land and the domus that stood on it, livestock, gold coins, slaves. Read “robots” for the last, and it is an approach today’s advanced economies should copy.


http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1d1d48f0-aef1-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250.html#axzz3wHDsk96w


 The idea to tax something that you want doesn't make sense. Governments "should" want people to work and to make a living on their own so they should promote working and not tax it.

 since most of the tax receipts came from income tax what should Governments do?

 tax everything you own a bit. Real estate, car's paintings etc....If you have a lot of assets not producing you would have a problem. This is a elegant solution with the benefit that property doesn't move. 

 I don't see a bright future for the real estate investor.
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why oil is going to 20 ?

Monday, January 04, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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As long as the cartel doesn't work countries will produce more & more to make the same money with smaller prices.

more about the same

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/11/why-oil-is-going-down.html


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