New Supply can kill any business

Monday, February 29, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Investor appetite for London luxury flats ebbs


Judith Evans, Jennifer Thompson and Chris Brewer

From the FT

A 24-hour butler service. Interiors by Versace. A swimming pool suspended mid-air between buildings. These are some of the unusual features available with new London luxury apartments, tens of thousands of which are being built all over the capital. All that is missing are the buyers.
More than 50,000 homes are planned or under construction in the most expensive areas of London — after a building boom that followed the 2008 crisis, when prime property recovered quickly and overseas buyers piled into the UK capital.

 More about the same:

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2015/04/excess-supply-prices-go-down.html



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We believe in “self-help.”

Monday, February 29, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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What is unique in this cycle is the difficult relationship between business and government, the worst I have ever seen. Technology, productivity and globalization have been the driving forces during my business career. In business, if you don’t lead these changes, you get fired; in politics, if you don’t fight them, you can’t get elected. As a result, most government policy is anti-growth. In the U.S., we want exports but seem to hate trade and exporters; globally, governments love small businesses but then regulate them to death. And so, we perpetuate a cycle: slow growth, poor job creation, populism, low productivity, higher regulation, poor policy and more slow growth. We now live in a world where the most promising growth policy is “negative interest rates.” In the U.S., 2015 was the 10th consecutive year when GDP growth failed to reach 3%, a rate that used to be considered our entitlement.
We don’t try to pick a cycle, or time a market, or complain about elections. We will always act to get more out of this economy than our peers. We believe in “self-help.”  We are aggressively managing our cost structure to capitalize on deflation. In 2016, we will fund a record level of restructuring.

Jeff Immelt GE 2015 Shareholder Letter

Yes in the business world i have seen 2 trends in the last 10 years

a)Big data is slowly winning. Information & knowledge will win against "experience" & habit

b)The best has open a big difference from the average. It is the best of times to be nº1


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It's starting !

Friday, February 26, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Source: the Guardian


World population is going to stop growing, first in the rich countries and then in the EM countries. Only in the very poor countries population will continue to grow.

Why? because in the current world children cost huge money to educate. They study almost until they are 25 or 30 years. It's a huge burden and that is why we are making less children, it's a bad business.

In 20 years according to George Friedman from Stratfor countries will fight for immigrants, now no one wants immigration but soon countries will need people to pay the retirement of their citizens.

The best business for a country is to have a growing population. But countries are making life very difficult for the people who have children. In my country , Portugal, if you are not extremely poor you can't discount the education costs on your taxes or health costs. It's a huge burden.

Government is sending a clear message? If you are smart don't have children. 


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I spent some days in São Tomé

Wednesday, February 24, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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It's good to run from the cold & rain even just for a couple of days

 i feel great and ready for the rest of the winter

 need a diet now 

 Thinking about having a parrot (my father says it's very demanding)

 In São Tomé there is much to be done, we visited some farms (Roças) and there is a big potential. they just need to do a bit more each year. just a bit more nothing radical, after 10 years they would be one of the great producers of cocoa again. Everything grows in São Tomé. No one is hungry. just a bit more than last year.



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just copy what works !

Tuesday, February 23, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Real GDP grew 1,4% in 2013, 5,2% in 2014, 6,6% in 2015, and the Irish central bank now expects the economy to grow by a further 4,8% in 2016 and 4,4% in 2017.

 from BCA Global Investment Startegy about Ireland

 Of course a country can't copy everything about other country because each country has different characteristics & character but one thing looks universal

In countries with good public finances the economy does much better that in countries where the state is in a mess! Deficits don't generate growth in the year of the deficit and in the next years!!!!

I live in a country Portugal where the state does modernization programs and the country is less modern, where the country does job creation programs and we have less jobs, etc... do i need to say more

Just get your act together!

each time the government needs money they invent a new tax , a new contribution and changes totally ruin the growth.






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Yesterday I stopped my mountain bike and took this pic.

Wednesday, February 10, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Markets are revolting against the Central banks.

Wednesday, February 10, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Abenomics was always a confidence game. Now it seems that confidence has crumbled. Far from reinforcing investors’ belief in the power of policy to boost markets and revitalize Japan’s economy, the central bank’s decision at the end of January to cut interest rates into negative territory has backfired in spectacular fashion.

 Gavekal Research

 Markets are revolting against the Central banks. My scenario is a bit of more pain and then Central banks will use some Nuclear weapon and Governments will spend and spend big.

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They have a cure, not a treatment!

Monday, February 01, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Always do your best. What you plant now, you will harvest later.
Og Mandino

From the FT, David Crow

Gilead risks becoming victim of its own success

David Crow in New York


Its hepatitis C medicines, Harvoni and Sovaldi, set a new record for the most successful drug launch, thanks in part to a contentious price tag that works out at roughly $1,000 per pill.
But the company has also achieved something that is still quite rare in modern medicine: a bona fide cure for a deadly disease that was previously untreatable in roughly half of patients.
Now some investors and analysts are asking whether Gilead is about to become a victim of its own success. The problem with a cure, especially one that works in as little as eight weeks, like Harvoni, is the drugmaker will one day run out of new patients to treat.
When the company announces 2015 earnings on Tuesday, analysts expect it to report net profits of $17bn on revenues of $32bn, compared with profits of $3bn and sales of $11bn in 2013 — the year before the runaway success of its hepatitis C launch.


What should you do when you have a great product? you should sell it at a fair price and build a brand. Mercedes did that, their cars where so good that almost all the taxi drivers used them. Some did more than 1,000,000 km with the same engine! The cars where so good that even terrorist groups used them, now they use Toyotas.

 Gilead is doing great and is building a great reputation. They have a cure, not a treatment! 

 Tks Gilead


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