When you are afraid there is no reason to be afraid

Friday, February 24, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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In 2007 no one was Uncertain ! Of course we got 2008 GFC (Gread Finantial Crisis) in 2012 there was a peak of Uncertain and nothing happen after! I bet 2017 it's going to be a BULL MARKET YEAR.


 DOW just made 10 straight records in a row! when there is a bubble the only logical course of action is participate with a the finger in the trigger "eject"
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This is a Bull Market?

Thursday, February 23, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The last time the S&P had a 1% down day was in the 11th of October 2016!

This is obviously not normal but i am in no mood to fight it!

in this environment i am tented to buy duration.
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With specialization we are sitting duck's!

Wednesday, February 22, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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But in 1977, the United states separated itself from every other government in history by vilifying meat and pushing grains, which were traditionally used to fatten cattle. Soon after, America's obesity rate shot up and hasn't stopped

 Chris McDougall, Natural Born Heroes

 Very boring book but with a very good message.

 He cites an episode where during Teddy Roosevelt presidency there was an eruption in Martinique and a french vessel tried to save lives but huge amounts of people died because with specialization people don't move a lot and can't jump, can't pull themselves up with a rope and can't pick and carry small children. This is completely true people are helpless we don't know how to fight, jump and carry our own body weight. We sit all day.

 I know this is true but specialization bring wealth but you are vulnerable because you can do only one thing.I guess you can't do anything about this. Specialization makes sense but we become sitting ducks.

 another message is this

 if you cut carbs you no longer have hungry moments in the day and you lose weight big time .I am trying this now a bit. This is a book with many good advice but boring.

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Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell !

Tuesday, February 21, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Investors are falling back in love with the U.S. leveraged-loan market.
In the first three weeks of 2017, investors plowed $2.5 billion into loans to speculative-grade companies, accounting for almost 2 percent of total assets managed by these funds, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data. Investors are looking to take advantage of the fact that these loans pay higher rates as benchmark yields rise, as opposed to bonds, which are generally pegged to fixed yields. But those who are piling into broad-market, passive loan funds may have already forgotten recent history, which shows that this debt tends to do worse when it's this popular.
Here's the rub: The more money comes in, the more companies gain power over their lenders. As prices on their loans rise above 100 cents on the dollar, borrowers can simply go back to investors and demand to pay a lower rate. Indeed, about 73 percent of the JPMorgan Leveraged Loan Index is now trading over par, according to a Bloomberg News article by Krista Giovacco on Wednesday. In response, companies are repricing their debt at a torrid pace, setting a record in January and accounting for more than half of the month's loan sales. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-02-02/junk-loans-are-suffering-from-their-own-popularity



We don’t want to put money to work in credit when prices are above par. We need to see some pain and dislocations for credit to be an interesting strategy again.


We need to see bunkrupcies and a lot of them to have a clear signal. Since 2008 with the aggressive monetary policies from the big 4 central banks the number of bankruptcies (including energy space) have been minimal ! This is not a time to Sow (see the graph below)


Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell

Frank Borman



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Deep Blue meditation in Mozambique

Monday, February 20, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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Just came from Mozambique from a diving trip ! Loved the country.

Cheap
Hot Weather
Friendly people, very educated they don’t have the habit or cursing
Not a lot to buy so no presents for my kids
Very good diving conditions

Tofo is also very good for surfers 
Francisco
@carneirao101
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There are more Trumps than what we think

Wednesday, February 08, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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all further immigration from mainly muslim countries should be stopped?

Drawing on a unique, new Chatham House survey of more than 10,000 people from 10 European states, we can throw new light on what people think about migration from mainly Muslim countries. Our results are striking and sobering. They suggest that public opposition to any further migration from predominantly Muslim states is by no means confined to Trump’s electorate in the US but is fairly widespread. -

See more at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/what-do-europeans-think-about-muslim-immigration#sthash.xSZzFHUU.dpuf



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Man needs difficulties; they are necessary for health

Monday, February 06, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Man needs difficulties; they are necessary for health
Carl Gustav Jung


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Some ideas for the Weekend

Friday, February 03, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Size became an objective because a bank that was clearly too important and too big to fail was able to borrow cheaply, and even a small advantage in funding costs meant that it could offer cheaper loans to its customers

Mervyn King, The end of Alchemy

Real education must ultimately be limited to men who insist on knowing, the rest is mere sheep-herding.
Ezra Pound

Bad taste creates many more millionaires than good taste.
Charles Bukowski

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, and in the manner in which you live."

 Stuart Scott
A crisis could in fact, be defined as a set of circumstances in which the demand for liquidity suddenly jumps

 Mervyn King, The end of Alchemy
Force yourself and the people who work for you to do difficult things. It’s usually easy to make things go well if you’re willing to do difficult things. We must act as trainers in gyms act in order to keep each other fit. That’s what’s required to produce the excellence that benefits everyone. It is a law of nature that you must do difficult things to gain strength and power. As with working out, after a while you make the connection between doing difficult things and the benefits you get from doing them, and you come to look forward to doing these difficult things.



Ray Dalio, Principle nº75


Trump is treating america as if USA is sick? The dow jones touched briefly 20,000 last month, american companies are by far the best in research & development, they can hire the best, american higher education attracts the best and the technological edge from America had never been greater.

does America needs a hands on president that meets everyday with CEO's. i doubt. the progress of the world is bottom up. American doesn't need a top down approach for two reasons. It doesn't work (Soviet Union, Venezuela etc...) and second soon America will no longer have manufacturing factories with thousands of workers. why? because they should be done in a cheap country and Americans will do other things.

Going back to the past is not going to happen.

I don't trust the Trump rally, i trust the rally from the bottom up america and that rally might be in danger if Trump starts meddling too much.
Have a great weekend
@Carneirao101



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