In 2007 no one was Uncertain ! Of course we got 2008 GFC (Gread Finantial Crisis) in 2012 there was a peak of Uncertain and nothing happen after! I bet 2017 it's going to be a BULL MARKET YEAR.
DOW just made 10 straight records in a row! when there is a bubble the only logical course of action is participate with a the finger in the trigger "eject"
Friday 24 February 2017
Thursday 23 February 2017
This is a Bull Market?
The last time the S&P had a 1% down day was in the 11th of October 2016!
This is obviously not normal but i am in no mood to fight it!
in this environment i am tented to buy duration.
This is obviously not normal but i am in no mood to fight it!
in this environment i am tented to buy duration.
Wednesday 22 February 2017
With specialization we are sitting duck's!
But in 1977, the United states separated itself from every other government in history by vilifying meat and pushing grains, which were traditionally used to fatten cattle. Soon after, America's obesity rate shot up and hasn't stopped
Chris McDougall, Natural Born Heroes
Very boring book but with a very good message.
He cites an episode where during Teddy Roosevelt presidency there was an eruption in Martinique and a french vessel tried to save lives but huge amounts of people died because with specialization people don't move a lot and can't jump, can't pull themselves up with a rope and can't pick and carry small children. This is completely true people are helpless we don't know how to fight, jump and carry our own body weight. We sit all day.
I know this is true but specialization bring wealth but you are vulnerable because you can do only one thing.I guess you can't do anything about this. Specialization makes sense but we become sitting ducks.
another message is this
if you cut carbs you no longer have hungry moments in the day and you lose weight big time .I am trying this now a bit. This is a book with many good advice but boring.
Chris McDougall, Natural Born Heroes
Very boring book but with a very good message.
He cites an episode where during Teddy Roosevelt presidency there was an eruption in Martinique and a french vessel tried to save lives but huge amounts of people died because with specialization people don't move a lot and can't jump, can't pull themselves up with a rope and can't pick and carry small children. This is completely true people are helpless we don't know how to fight, jump and carry our own body weight. We sit all day.
I know this is true but specialization bring wealth but you are vulnerable because you can do only one thing.I guess you can't do anything about this. Specialization makes sense but we become sitting ducks.
another message is this
if you cut carbs you no longer have hungry moments in the day and you lose weight big time .I am trying this now a bit. This is a book with many good advice but boring.
Tuesday 21 February 2017
Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell !
Investors are falling back in love
with the U.S. leveraged-loan market.
In the first three weeks of 2017, investors
plowed $2.5 billion into loans to speculative-grade companies, accounting
for almost 2 percent of total assets managed by these funds, according to Bank
of America Merrill Lynch data. Investors are looking to take
advantage of the fact that these loans pay higher rates as benchmark
yields rise, as opposed to bonds, which are generally pegged to fixed
yields. But those who are piling into broad-market, passive loan funds may have
already forgotten recent history, which shows that this debt tends to do worse when it's this popular.
Here's the rub: The more money comes in, the more companies gain power over their lenders. As prices on their loans rise above 100 cents on the dollar, borrowers can simply go back to investors and demand to pay a lower rate. Indeed, about 73 percent of the JPMorgan Leveraged Loan Index is now trading over par, according to a Bloomberg News article by Krista Giovacco on Wednesday. In response, companies are repricing their debt at a torrid pace, setting a record in January and accounting for more than half of the month's loan sales.
Here's the rub: The more money comes in, the more companies gain power over their lenders. As prices on their loans rise above 100 cents on the dollar, borrowers can simply go back to investors and demand to pay a lower rate. Indeed, about 73 percent of the JPMorgan Leveraged Loan Index is now trading over par, according to a Bloomberg News article by Krista Giovacco on Wednesday. In response, companies are repricing their debt at a torrid pace, setting a record in January and accounting for more than half of the month's loan sales.
We don’t want to put money to work in credit when
prices are above par. We need to see some pain and dislocations for credit to
be an interesting strategy again.
We need to see bunkrupcies and a lot of them to have a
clear signal. Since 2008 with the aggressive monetary policies from the big 4
central banks the number of bankruptcies (including energy space) have been
minimal ! This is not a time to Sow (see the graph below)
Capitalism without bankruptcy is
like Christianity without hell
Frank Borman
Monday 20 February 2017
Deep Blue meditation in Mozambique
Just came from Mozambique from a diving trip ! Loved
the country.
Cheap
Hot Weather
Friendly people, very educated they don’t have the
habit or cursing
Not a lot to buy so no presents for my kids
Very good diving conditions
Tofo is also very good for surfers
Francisco
@carneirao101
Wednesday 8 February 2017
There are more Trumps than what we think
all further immigration from mainly muslim countries should be stopped?
Drawing on a unique, new Chatham House survey of more than 10,000 people from 10 European states, we can throw new light on what people think about migration from mainly Muslim countries. Our results are striking and sobering. They suggest that public opposition to any further migration from predominantly Muslim states is by no means confined to Trump’s electorate in the US but is fairly widespread. -
See more at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/what-do-europeans-think-about-muslim-immigration#sthash.xSZzFHUU.dpuf
Drawing on a unique, new Chatham House survey of more than 10,000 people from 10 European states, we can throw new light on what people think about migration from mainly Muslim countries. Our results are striking and sobering. They suggest that public opposition to any further migration from predominantly Muslim states is by no means confined to Trump’s electorate in the US but is fairly widespread. -
See more at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/what-do-europeans-think-about-muslim-immigration#sthash.xSZzFHUU.dpuf
Monday 6 February 2017
Man needs difficulties; they are necessary for health
Man needs
difficulties; they are necessary for health
Carl Gustav JungFriday 3 February 2017
Some ideas for the Weekend
Size became an objective because a bank that was
clearly too important and too big to fail was able to borrow cheaply, and even
a small advantage in funding costs meant that it could offer cheaper loans to
its customers
Mervyn King, The end of Alchemy
Real education must ultimately be
limited to men who insist on knowing, the rest is mere sheep-herding.
Bad taste creates many more
millionaires than good taste.
"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, and in the manner in which you live."
Stuart Scott
A crisis could in fact, be defined as a set of circumstances in which the demand for liquidity suddenly jumps
Mervyn King, The end of Alchemy
Stuart Scott
A crisis could in fact, be defined as a set of circumstances in which the demand for liquidity suddenly jumps
Mervyn King, The end of Alchemy
Force yourself and the people who work for you
to do difficult things. It’s usually easy to make things go well if you’re willing to do difficult
things. We must act as trainers in gyms act in order to keep each other fit.
That’s what’s required to produce the excellence that benefits everyone. It is
a law of nature that you must do difficult things to gain strength and power.
As with working out, after a while you make the connection between doing
difficult things and the benefits you get from doing them, and you come to look
forward to doing these difficult things.
Ray Dalio, Principle nº75
Trump is treating america as if USA is sick? The dow jones touched briefly 20,000 last month, american companies are by far the best in research & development, they can hire the best, american higher education attracts the best and the technological edge from America had never been greater.
does America needs a hands on president that meets everyday with CEO's. i doubt. the progress of the world is bottom up. American doesn't need a top down approach for two reasons. It doesn't work (Soviet Union, Venezuela etc...) and second soon America will no longer have manufacturing factories with thousands of workers. why? because they should be done in a cheap country and Americans will do other things.
Going back to the past is not going to happen.
I don't trust the Trump rally, i trust the rally from the bottom up america and that rally might be in danger if Trump starts meddling too much.
Have a great weekend
@Carneirao101
Have a great weekend
@Carneirao101