Value line is an index where all the companies have the same weight. It touched 500 points in 1997, 2007 and 2014 and recently is trading at 554! Are we entering a new bull market after 20 years consolidating ? i hope so i want to live a easy period to make money.
what can make everything jump? Technology & Productivity
Monday 30 April 2018
Sunday 29 April 2018
I don't like to buy new things but....
I have the same racing bike since 2012. This week i bought an Eagle XXI Drive train. I am loving it it looks like i have 10 watts more in my legs. I don't make any money on this i am just amazed with the sensations i got yesterday.
One week left before i start Transportugal the biggest MTB race in Portugal . I am going to race some 50 hours next week. It's going to be a great test to the Eagle XXI
One week left before i start Transportugal the biggest MTB race in Portugal . I am going to race some 50 hours next week. It's going to be a great test to the Eagle XXI
Thursday 26 April 2018
Never ever say NO! and then after some discussion it's yes
What NO means, in the final analysis, is always "If you continue to do that, something you do not like will happen to you." Otherwise it means nothing. Or , worse, it means another nonsensical nothing muttered by ignorable adults." Or, worse still, it means, "all adults are ineffectual and weak."
Jordan B. Peterson
If a NO it's not a NO you cannot educate, you have a miserable life. If a NO is not obeyed and there is no consequence as Jordan Peterson says it's a joke.
Jordan B. Peterson
If a NO it's not a NO you cannot educate, you have a miserable life. If a NO is not obeyed and there is no consequence as Jordan Peterson says it's a joke.
Live in Portugal if you are not a local........
In Portugal the Government as a dual system if you are Portuguese you pay 50% marginal tax above 80,000 euros /year plus 11% Social Security plus 24% VAT plus ......If you are a new resident in Portugal you pay 0% for 10 years or 20% if you get income locally.
This has make real estate skyrocket and make life difficult for Portuguese who live in Portugal. Big taxes and high real estate prices.
Wednesday 25 April 2018
Tuesday 24 April 2018
An Educated Dog is a happy Dog
When my now-adult daughter was a child, another child once hit her with a metal toy truck. I watched that same child, one year later, viciously push his younger sister backwards over a glass surface coffee table. His mother picked him up, immediately afterward (but not her frightened daughter), and told him in a hushed tones not to do such things, while she patted him comfortingly in a manner clearly indicative of approval. She was out to produce a little god emperor of the Universe. That's the unstated goal of many a mother, including many who consider themselves advocates for full gender equality. Such women will object vociferously to any command uttered by an adult male, but will trot off in seconds to make their progeny a peanut-butter sandwich if he demanda it while immersed self-importantly in a video game.
James Peterson, Do not let your children do anything that makes you dislike them.
I have seen many parents almost slaves of their children.
I know that it's very difficult to educate when you have money. To me the origin of all evil and problems is the lack of limits, of boundaries, of rules. If there is no limits the children will be completely lost.
Someone showed me a book called An Educated Dog is a Happy Dog
I think it's the same for kids. Institute some rule, one rule one limit. That is enough to change everything.
Monday 23 April 2018
Can someone tell this BOND KING to stick to dark suits!
"Bond King" and billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach is looking for energy-related shares to blast higher and Facebook shares to head in the other direction.
Sunday 22 April 2018
Completely empty !
SRP 165
Serpa mountain bike in the rain
2nd in the over 50 years class and 10th overall
it was a good start of the season
i raced probably a bit over my limit in the first 3 hours (see the graph with the pulse) but i didn't want to miss the group i was in. I reached 170 beat per minute and stayed there a bit to long.In the end as you can see in my pulse i started going down after the 4th hour until the 8th hour at the finish line.
average pulse in the 8 hours was 154! not bad for me
i eat properly on the bike, Hummer Perpetum and water. after the 6th hour i stop at a food station and ate half an orange in 5 seconds! i didn't stop to pee because it was raining big time.
i lost the 2 lighter gears due to water and sand. This happens often to my. I am considering moving to an Eagle perhaps it can stand bad weather better. without the last two gears in the steppest sections i had to dismount and walk. i lost a good group with Nuno caeiro when we reached Paymogo in Spain. he finished 7th overall.
i need to improve my recovery because Sunday i was completely empty and i couldn't move from the coach. In two weeks i am going to try to finish Transportugal and this is a 8 day race with no rest day. I need to pace myself to be able to ride the next day.
I want to thank my coach Nuno Sabido because i never been stronger despite having 3 or 4 kg over my race weight.
Serpa mountain bike in the rain
2nd in the over 50 years class and 10th overall
it was a good start of the season
i raced probably a bit over my limit in the first 3 hours (see the graph with the pulse) but i didn't want to miss the group i was in. I reached 170 beat per minute and stayed there a bit to long.In the end as you can see in my pulse i started going down after the 4th hour until the 8th hour at the finish line.
average pulse in the 8 hours was 154! not bad for me
i eat properly on the bike, Hummer Perpetum and water. after the 6th hour i stop at a food station and ate half an orange in 5 seconds! i didn't stop to pee because it was raining big time.
i lost the 2 lighter gears due to water and sand. This happens often to my. I am considering moving to an Eagle perhaps it can stand bad weather better. without the last two gears in the steppest sections i had to dismount and walk. i lost a good group with Nuno caeiro when we reached Paymogo in Spain. he finished 7th overall.
i need to improve my recovery because Sunday i was completely empty and i couldn't move from the coach. In two weeks i am going to try to finish Transportugal and this is a 8 day race with no rest day. I need to pace myself to be able to ride the next day.
I want to thank my coach Nuno Sabido because i never been stronger despite having 3 or 4 kg over my race weight.
Thursday 19 April 2018
healthy market
When the advance decline line is making new highs usually the market follows to new highs soon. In 2000 and 2007 the market was making new highs and the advance decline line was going down. Not the case today.
Sunday 15 April 2018
Spring comes to Portugal at last!
view from my office at 7 am ! no sight of the river with the fog but it's going to clear by noon.
i am sick of rain & winter. Our dog and my 3 year old son don't like the rain too....less fun in the park.
Thursday 12 April 2018
Why people don't do their Homework?
Most of the fund managers I have encountered lacked in depth knowledge of my companies, which ranged from members of the FTSE 250 to an Aim-quoted group, because they simply did not exert themselves. Rather than conduct rigorous due diligence before investing, they seldom left their offices. Instead they relied on weak and frequently partisan analysis provided by brokers’ analysts, or on a 45-minute sales pitch by the investee company’s chief executive and finance director.
I cannot recall even one fund manager asking to visit our operations or meet more executives before investing. They therefore became shareholders in companies that they barely understood. Once in, few fund managers put in much effort to get to know us better. Although most companies welcome visits by fund managers, most of them are unwilling to leave London — unless it sounds like fun
Perhaps there are Funds like this ones that don't do their homework or don't have the money & resources to do the womework. They speak with the sell side and that 's it.
However i invest in two types of funds, Sector funds that only do one sector and know more than the managements about the company and quant funds that know zero about the companies but screen thousand of companies to find some characteristics that precede good performance.
Both can work.
To buy funds that do everything with few people and no money it's better to buy an ETF.
if neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you you = Buddhist !
IF you can keep your head when all
about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
' Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
if neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
' Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
if neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!
Why salaries don't grow
Very good paper from Barclays with an introduction from CEO Jes Staley. in a nutshell this is the explanation why salaries will keep going down. Jobs are not replaced by Robots, parts of the jobs are simplified and automated. So anyone can do it. Almost anyone can be a UBER driver. the taxi driver is not necessary anymore.
Tuesday 10 April 2018
The outlook for growth is "sluggish"
Morgan Stanley US Cycle Indicator is topping . It can stay on the upper part of the graph for several years like in 95-2000 period. I guess the message here is the growth surprise is behind us.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said the outlook for growth is "sluggish" and it wouldn't be surprising to see corporate spreads widen "somewhat."
My take is that the growth surprise is behind us.
Gundlach Call for 2018 - Commodities. UMMMMMM
This graph looks tempting but i think there are 2 trends that make me ceptic of a repetition of this clean pattern
1.People when they get a bit of money stop having children. The world is getting richer and when Children mortality goes down or when you have money to study you have one or 2 babies
2.Technology is making more with less. That is not going to stop.
Lie a bit to yourself is my advice
“Never tell your problems to anyone...20% don't care and the other 80% are glad you have them.”
Lou Holtz
People won't have time for you if you are always angry or complaining.
Stephen Hawking
Unfortunately i am not like that but i have one friend that when asked about his life everything is great, a bit of exaggeration but i think this technique helps the fact. You start to believe that everything is really great.
lie a bit to yourself is my advice
Lou Holtz
People won't have time for you if you are always angry or complaining.
Stephen Hawking
Unfortunately i am not like that but i have one friend that when asked about his life everything is great, a bit of exaggeration but i think this technique helps the fact. You start to believe that everything is really great.
lie a bit to yourself is my advice
Monday 9 April 2018
My staff is my most important asset, Bullshit!!!
"I noticed that the dynamic
range between what an average person could accomplish and what the best person
could accomplish was 50 or 100 to 1. Given that, you're well advised to go
after the cream of the cream. A small team of A+ players can run circles around
a giant team of B and C players."
Steve Jobs
My view: They are both
right. Most people are overpaid, can be replaced by a computer and are a cost
with demands and problems associated but if you can hire an A player it makes a
huge difference CR7 or Michael Jordan in the Bull’s not only play very well
they raise everybody’s game. An A player is worth it big time.
it's better to be rich than poor !
i know it's better to be rich, wealthy and handsome than poor , sick and ugly but not everyone agrees. I like to look at this graph.
there is another important point where do you live makes a big big difference. it pays to move to a big city. Life is better , more opportunities and less social pression. you can do whatever you want.
there is another important point where do you live makes a big big difference. it pays to move to a big city. Life is better , more opportunities and less social pression. you can do whatever you want.
According to citi not yet time to throw the towel !
According to citi not yet time to throw the towel !
Despite the recent volatility, a checklist of stock market indicators is flashing few sell signals indicating the current correction should be bought, according to Citigroup Inc.
my take is the following, i was going to buy if today we open gap down, it looks that is not going to happen . I am writing this monday early morning.
however if the market closes below February lows all bets are off i don't care about Citi i will trow the towel.