Best investment in recent has been farmland
why ? because you cannot do more it's not like Cryptocurrencies that can multiply overnight
nothing kills a business more than new competition / offer
however besides trees i see agriculture without land soon with hydroponics. i would not bet in this trend forever. as i said only trees are safe
Monday 28 May 2018
Wednesday 23 May 2018
Data obsessed
I think there are two ways to do well in the markets and in life.
a)to have one idea, one thesis that works and stick to it (buy good at ok price, big get bigger, buy low beta and leverage, momentum etc....)
b)Be data driven just look at the data and never of opinions or 3rd party analyses if the data points invert ......
the first way of doing business is much more difficult because you can have the wrong idea that really does not work
exemples
speak with managements
pay attention to TV
look at newspapers
gossip
pay attention to people that live from a salary
i am on the path to be data driven. but what data should i pay attention? only granular data. Thousands of data points.
in this pic i am near a TV but the only thing i look on TV is price action.
Tuesday 22 May 2018
The warren Buffett strategy
low vol stocks + leverage = Beat the market
From Wikipedia
The low-volatility anomaly[Note 1] is the observation that portfolios of low-volatility stocks have higher risk-adjusted returns than portfolios with high-volatility stocks in most markets studied. The capital asset pricing model made some predictions of return versus beta. First, return should be a linear function of beta, and nothing else. Also, the return of a stock with average beta should be the average return of stocks (this is easy to show given the first assumption). Second, the intercept should be equal to the risk-free rate. Then the slope can be computed from these two points. Almost immediately these predictions were challenged on the grounds that they are empirically not true. Studies find that the correct slope is either less than predicted, not significantly different from zero, or even negative. Also, additional factors are predictive of return independent of beta.[1]
Black proposed a theory where there is a zero-beta return which is different from the risk-free return. This fits the data better since the zero-beta return is different from the risk-free return. It still presumes, on principle, that there is higher return for higher beta.
The low-volatility anomaly has now been found in the United States over an 85-year period and in global markets for at least the past 20 years.[when?][2][3][4]
Research challenging CAPM's underlying assumptions about risk has been mounting for decades.[5] One challenge was in 1972, when Jensen, Black and Scholes published a study showing what CAPM would look like if one could not borrow at a risk-free rate. Their results indicated that the relationship between beta and realized return was flatter than predicted by CAPM.[6][Note 2]
Shortly after, Robert Haugen and A. James Heins produced a working paper titled “On the Evidence Supporting the Existence of Risk Premiums in the Capital Market”.[Note 3] Studying the period from 1926 to 1971, they concluded that "over the long run stock portfolios with lesser variance in monthly returns have experienced greater average returns than their ‘riskier’ counterparts".[
yesterday amazing night
Monday 21 May 2018
Roger Waters
Yesterday I attended the Roger Waters concert in Lisbon. The guy is very critical to the
world (the world is ruled by PIGS!). No one told him that the Good Old days
where no good at all! Besides that most people he criticized are elected not
dictators (I guess Putin is not freely elected).
Very good concert. Amazing
that this guy is 74 years old. Perhaps being very critical helps aging. always criticizing money but he is going to make 100 million in this Tour alone! He ended the concert with a flag (i guess it was Palestinian Flag) i don't think he wants to live or play in the Gaza strip!
He belongs to a group of people that profit from Capitalism but are always criticizing and bashing the free world.
Sunday 20 May 2018
Children in father absent homes are four times as likely to be poor.
I guess all the data below comes from the idea that children without rules & some sort of authority have a chance of doing badly in life. many mothers are a bit friends of their children and have a style of education a bit erratic. A no is not a real no. A rule is not a rule and a education with no clear boundaries. But not all mothers are like this. i know a lot of people that do well with a single mother education.
Children in father absent homes are four times as likely to be poor.
Jordan B Peterson
The number of children who grow up without a father in the home in the United States has reached concerning levels. There exists a considerable research base that suggests that children raised in households lacking a father experience psychosocial problems with greater frequency than children with a father in the home (Allen & Daly, 2007). These problems have been found to extend into adolescence and adulthood and include an increased risk of substance use, depression, suicide, poor school performance, and contact with the criminal justice system (Allen
& Daly, 2007). Lack of paternal involvement has also been associated with a higher likelihood of being bullied and experiencing abuse (Allen & Daly, 2007). Educating uninvolved fathers and helping them play a more active role in their child’s life could benefit both families and communities. To bring this into focus, the present article aims to highlight ten adverse outcomes that may result from the absence of a father in a child’s life: (1) Perceived abandonment, (2) attachment issues, (3) child abuse, (4) childhood obesity, (5) criminal justice involvement, (6) gang involvement, (7) mental health issues, (8) poor school performance, (9) poverty and homelessness; and (10) substance use.
Children in father absent homes are four times as likely to be poor.
Jordan B Peterson
The number of children who grow up without a father in the home in the United States has reached concerning levels. There exists a considerable research base that suggests that children raised in households lacking a father experience psychosocial problems with greater frequency than children with a father in the home (Allen & Daly, 2007). These problems have been found to extend into adolescence and adulthood and include an increased risk of substance use, depression, suicide, poor school performance, and contact with the criminal justice system (Allen
& Daly, 2007). Lack of paternal involvement has also been associated with a higher likelihood of being bullied and experiencing abuse (Allen & Daly, 2007). Educating uninvolved fathers and helping them play a more active role in their child’s life could benefit both families and communities. To bring this into focus, the present article aims to highlight ten adverse outcomes that may result from the absence of a father in a child’s life: (1) Perceived abandonment, (2) attachment issues, (3) child abuse, (4) childhood obesity, (5) criminal justice involvement, (6) gang involvement, (7) mental health issues, (8) poor school performance, (9) poverty and homelessness; and (10) substance use.
- 63% of youth suicides are from fatherless homes (US Dept. Of Health/Census) – 5 times the average.
- 90% of all homeless and runaway children are from fatherless homes – 32 times the average.
- 85% of all children who show behavior disorders come from fatherless homes – 20 times the average. (Center for Disease Control)
- 80% of rapists with anger problems come from fatherless homes –14 times the average. (Justice & Behavior, Vol 14, p. 403-26)
- 71% of all high school dropouts come from fatherless homes – 9 times the average. (National Principals Association Report)
Tuesday 15 May 2018
Transportugal race 2018
This year I finished 8th with an average speed of 21,3 km/h (best ever for me)
i raced for 42 hours
The winner Pedro Simas from my team made 37 hours for the 906 km mostly off road
this year i wasn't so skinny but i felt strong. i started with 76 kg and in 2012 i started with 70kg.(Froome weight is 69kg)
The year i can be strong & skinny i will win!
no flu
no gastric problems
I started with a lower back injury (From the Pilates class) that plagued the first two stages. after that i took big pain killers and no more pain.
i broke one wheel spoke before the start of the first stage (warming up) and two spokes at the 7th stage. i was lucky both times the wheel keep working more or less ok
I am a very good endurance machine but i am losing peak speed
on stage 5th below i did 3rd place. My best stage ever. It was the longest stage of this year race with 188k. This shows that i can do well in Ultra long races but i have no chance with faster riders in short distances. on this stage i was alone most of the distance just pedaling steady. I ended up in 3rd i put some time in my competitors.
How can i do better without training long hours ? I will let that to my coach Nuno Sabido.
The top guys in the classification ride daily and i can't do that. sometimes i can do some spinning at night before going to bed. but i can't and hopefully i won't ride outside daily like a professional. only if i stopped working and i don't want that.
what is the solution to ride fast without ultra long hours of training?
I race with a hard tail bike. i have to figure out if the lower back pain would disappear with a suspension bike (1 kg more). All the winners of Transportugal rode with hardtail, no one with suspension ever won this race.
i am happy to take advice
i raced for 42 hours
The winner Pedro Simas from my team made 37 hours for the 906 km mostly off road
this year i wasn't so skinny but i felt strong. i started with 76 kg and in 2012 i started with 70kg.(Froome weight is 69kg)
The year i can be strong & skinny i will win!
no flu
no gastric problems
I started with a lower back injury (From the Pilates class) that plagued the first two stages. after that i took big pain killers and no more pain.
i broke one wheel spoke before the start of the first stage (warming up) and two spokes at the 7th stage. i was lucky both times the wheel keep working more or less ok
I am a very good endurance machine but i am losing peak speed
on stage 5th below i did 3rd place. My best stage ever. It was the longest stage of this year race with 188k. This shows that i can do well in Ultra long races but i have no chance with faster riders in short distances. on this stage i was alone most of the distance just pedaling steady. I ended up in 3rd i put some time in my competitors.
How can i do better without training long hours ? I will let that to my coach Nuno Sabido.
The top guys in the classification ride daily and i can't do that. sometimes i can do some spinning at night before going to bed. but i can't and hopefully i won't ride outside daily like a professional. only if i stopped working and i don't want that.
what is the solution to ride fast without ultra long hours of training?
I race with a hard tail bike. i have to figure out if the lower back pain would disappear with a suspension bike (1 kg more). All the winners of Transportugal rode with hardtail, no one with suspension ever won this race.
i am happy to take advice