The New Italian Goverment can't do as they wish

There is scarcely anything that drags a person down like debt. 

P. T. Barnum




the new government of Italy has some good ideas like lowering the income tax to 20% but the markets are not going to let them execute! it's a pity because as we are seeing with TRUMP lowering taxes boosts the economy big time.



From CNN

The populists envision a minimum basic income of €780 ($917) a month for the poorest Italians, funded by the state. The Five Star Movement said during the campaign that the basic income would cost €15 billion ($18.5 billion) a year.

Ratings agency Moody's warned last week it could cut Italy's credit rating -- already just two notches above "junk" status -- because the populists' plans risked weakening its fiscal position and stalling efforts to reform the economy.

From Bloomberg

Claudio Borghi, the euroskeptic head of the budget committee in the lower house, said in an interview with Corriere della Sera that Italy won’t be "hostage" to the markets.

Make America Great!

Apparently Make America Great is working at least in the markets! 

Trump it's obviously erratic and he is not keen to be nice to the DAVOS man. He creates conditions for business to grow. In Europe politicians only care about Goverment programs, more rules, more taxes, more regulation , more government.

Despite that there are many good companies in Europe but not enough to make GDP grow because Government  in many countries is a big part of the Economy.




From : The Daily Shot

Time to buy China? why not.

6 reasons to buy China

1.They work more than us, much more
2. Japanese products after WWII were considered crap (Like Made in China now), that is going to change
3.The China market is not yet open to foreigners
4.China is the second Economy in the world , most investors have a zero allocation. that will change
5.They had a big selloff this year
6.They have a current account surplus and they have money, they are not in the same boat as the other EM, they don't need the IMF

put some % in China now. and forget about it !

When the USD is weak everybody can party

The eurusd just gave a bullish sign for the EUR. 1,1792, normally when the USD is weak everything goes up. The American stock market is doing well with the Doillar strong if it gets weaker it could be better.

From Gary Savage service

Don't trade when you are in hollidays

No one has ever made their career in August, but plenty have lost it,” wrote Greg Coffey

In august markets are a bit more irrational than usual because a lot of people are off their desks. my advice, book your holidays also in august unless you are a long term investor and perhaps some good buying opportunities might come in the radar screen


if you are in holidays don't trade. i never trade anything outside the office. i had some bad experiences and now only make decisions with full information and rested.

Topix a good sign !

We are in a Bull market soon we will have good surprises everywhere. how to play the Bull market. There are several ways to play one of them is to buy the strongest sectors and just have patience 

Poverty is not socialism. To be rich is glorious.

Deng Xiaoping

oil could very well go down

why?

EM currencies are exploding vs the USD
The price of oil for a Argentinian, Turkish , Egyptian etc...is skyrocketing
less driving 
recession in EM countries
Less consumption
Oil down

EM markets are big consumers of oil.............................

Price of oil for a Turkish driver. Of course price has been subsidized but that is a short term measure it will hit soon

Never forget

The goal of socialism is communism. 
Vladimir Lenin

Fat Cyclist !

i raced last Sunday in GFNY Portugal

i gave everything, i was with the first group until km 80 ( Total 154km) but after that i was drooped and finished 32nd with 4h48 min. if i could have done 5 min less i would be in the 20th.

my stats were very ok , average pulse 157, my maximum ever in any race, 220 average watts my maximum ever in any race. As you can see below in the Heart rate monitor i lowered my performance after the 3rd hour.

what happened? i am with 78 kg 6 to 8 kg above my ideal weight. and that is a big deal when we start climbing.

it was a great day but the final classification was not ideal.

i know what to do......

Have a great day

"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be."

John Robert Wooden

New research suggests evolution might favor 'survival of the laziest'

New research suggests evolution might favor 'survival of the laziest'

August 21, 2018, University of Kansas

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-08-evolution-favor-survival-laziest.html#jCp

"Maybe in the long term the best evolutionary strategy for animals is to be lassitudinous and sluggish—the lower the metabolic rate, the more likely the species you belong to will survive," Lieberman said. "Instead of 'survival of the fittest,' maybe a better metaphor for the history of life is 'survival of the laziest' or at least 'survival of the sluggish.'"



A turtle can live up to 100 years and everything is slow and peacefull


In my business, Hedge Fund allocation i divided all the managers that i ever invested and divided them into two groups. the more volatile before investment and the less volatile (lower standard deviation)

we made 80%of total p&L  from the less volatile and 20% from the more crazy ones.

What is happening?

A platform company that buys from A and sells to B doesn't need a lot of capital. Apple buys and assemble their products in China and ship them to final customer with a huge margin. They spend money in R&D but that is nothing in a huge company like APPLE

perhaps America is the place where companies don't need a lot of capital and so they are buying back stock and offering no new IPO's. America is the place to be with a pro business administration etc.....

where to live in Europe?

If we just Focus in the first (average gross income) and last columns (cost of living) we can see that Spain is the place to live in Europe and Greece is very expensive for what people make (place to avoid)

If someone has money and is trying to pick where to live  just look at

security
sunny days per year
cost of living


I took this graph from Jornal Expresso, the best weekly newspaper

why Stocks go up?

Because the companies make money and they don't distribute all of it. it's like a zero coupon bond it goes up and up.

Remember "The Death of Equities," BusinessWeek's seminal Aug. 13, 1979 cover story? It claimed that investors, burned by years of poor returns in the 1970s, had abandoned stocks for good.

PS At the time of this cover the Dow was at 885 points. 5 year later at 1227 and 10 years later at 2687 and now 25,952!

as you know i suspect that after the bull of 1982/2000 we had a 2000/2016 where the markets didn't progress and now we are in a new Bull Market

i intend to play it 

Blockchain Tacos

From Cliffwater Weekly macro

• On the right, people bought tacos for cash and left.  On the left, the blockchain taco booth is being held up by the first guy in line, who is still waiting for confirmation of his transaction!

Fake Warren Buffet gives ok advice

I took this list from Chris Solarz Cliffwater Weekly macro. Tks Chris always good stuff