Best place to live in the South of Europe 2018 stats

Tuesday, October 30, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

TAGS:

Madrid, in Madrid people get 96% of things an average NY can get. In Greece life is difficult



Local Purchasing Power shows relative purchasing power in buying goods and services in a given city for the average wage in that city. If domestic purchasing power is 40, this means that the inhabitants of that city with the average salary can afford to buy on an average 60% less goods and services than New York City residents with an average salary.





Read More

1 comentários:

Are we Smart Money ?

Tuesday, October 30, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:



Read More

0 comentários:

The highest Petrol Prices around the world

Tuesday, October 30, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

why countries like Italy or Greece that are poor have so high Gaz prices? The governments in these countries want to make life miserable to their citizens. most of the price is taxes.




Read More

0 comentários:

Notes for Tuesday

Tuesday, October 30, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:


Happiness depends upon ourselves.
Aristotle (384 BC - 322 BC)  


Notes for Tuesday:
0.“If cash flows and expected growth have not changed over the month, the price of equity risk has jumped from 5.38% at the start of the month to the 5.89% on October 26, putting it at the high end of equity risk premiums in the last decade.
Damodaran 

1.From Bloomberg:
Angela Merkel’s announcement yesterday marks the last chapter of her long domination of German politics. She is stepping down as the head of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union and says she won’t run for re-election. What’s less certain is whether she will see out her full term as chancellor, which might run until 2021, and whether the country’s political center can survive without her.

Nothing new here Schroeder left the party in 2004 and stayed as chancellor.

2. The polls are showing that the Republicans will lose the House. That definitely has capital scared. The Democrats are just hostile right now and it does not matter if something is good or bad - they are simply out for revenge. That is what has capital really upset.

3.From Clifwater Weekly

   (Brazilian Macro Manager #1) Long, then Short BRL: Far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro is widely expected to defeat his left-wing opponent Fernando Haddad in the nation’s final presidential vote on Sunday.  Bolsonaro’s win will lead to a nice bounce, and which will be nice entry point to short BRL.  Bolsonaro’s honeymoon period won’t last long – he’s political unsavvy, congress remains very fragmented, and Brazil faces considerable fiscal headwinds.  This will ultimately lead to downward pressure on the BRL and Brazilian equities
4.Price of Power in Europe

 My country Portugal despite being one of the poorest have one of the highest prices of Power in Europe, 0,22 per kwh above the European average 0,2!




Read More

0 comentários:

I don’t see a recession anytime soon

Monday, October 29, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

in 1987 the year i started working in the stock exchange doing research stock's (S&P) were 19% above the 200 day moving average, a bit too much. after the crash they were 28% below the average.

After than the Bull market continued until 2000 with a big scare in 1998.





 what is happening now?

 I don’t see a recession anytime soon so I see this market correction as a “correction” and not a Bear market. We were 7% above the 200 day moving average at the end of September and now we are 5% below the 200 day moving average on the S&P. Is the correction done? i don't know but some steam was liberated from the stock market. we are ready for the next leg up.

my vision. chop until the elections and then we resume the Bull Market.






Read More

0 comentários:

When the FED is hiking ok but when FED lowers careful.....

Monday, October 29, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:




From Bull Market's

The stock market tends to go up 1-6 months after the Federal Reserve stops hiking interest rates. Here are the S&P 500’s forward returns after the last rate hike in each rate hike cycle.





I cound not get the numbers of what happen to stocks after the first cut in interest rates but i know it's down big time. normally the FED is trying so save the market and the economy . in the first 6 monhs after the first cut get out of the market

conclusion:

 1. during the FED hikes OK
2.After the FED stop hiking until the first cut Dangerous but could be OK
3.in the first 6 months after the first cut . Stay far away from stocks




Read More

0 comentários:

A bottom in the next few days if it doesn't happen.......

Thursday, October 25, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

In short, the US investment environment is getting worse, but only on the margin. It is still conducive to growth and rising asset values. In other words, the situation has gone from great to good. And I’m not sure that the situation will go from good to bad as quickly as this month’s market move suggests.
Will Denyer , Gave Kal

 i think we are in a Bull market and in a Bull we have to buy the dips, we are in a dip and sentiment has not made new lows. We have conditions for a bottom in the next few days if it doesn't happen we have to consider Plan B.
Read More

0 comentários:

Being ethical still pays but do well for your customers it's even better

Thursday, October 18, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

From the great Gave Kal service
In 1939, Franklin Roosevelt famously dismissed reservations about Nicaragua’s brutal dictator Anastazio Somoza with the comment “he may be a sonofabitch, but he’s our sonofabitch.” In the world of foreign policy realpolitik, to a large degree FDR’s doctrine still holds true. Witness, for example, the verbal contortions that US president Donald Trump and secretary of state Mike Pompeo have been forced to pull off in recent days in order to condemn Saudi Arabia, but not too much...

from Bloomberg
The world’s business leaders have suddenly been stricken with a conscience.
After the disappearance and suspected murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi from the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul, executives who’d been lined up for the “Davos in the Desert”1 Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh this month are getting cold feet. 
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon and his peer at Blackstone Group LP Steve Schwarzman, along with BlackRock Inc.’s Larry Fink, Uber Technologies Inc.’s Dara Khosrowshahi and Richard Branson have all sent in cancellations. Credit Suisse Group AG CEO Tidjane Thiam and HSBC Holdings Plc’s John Flint became the latest to shun the forum on Tuesday..................................


The double standard is hardly surprising. Making money has required a certain flexibility on moral issues ever since Joseph taught Pharaoh how to profit off a seven-year famine. Being ethical in business is difficult because being unethical is often lucrative. 



Of course it pays being ethical but the best for a company for a corporate leader is not to fake he is concerned about politics, image, minorities, etc....the most important thing is to do a great service to your clients, to be of service to constantly improve the service and product. Amazon is a great company not only because they are ethical but because they really care about their client and their service. Lot's of companies care about minorities and they don't care about their customers. they will disappear. to go or not to go to Saudi Arabia does't matter. The best for Saudi Arabia was to have the great service of Amazon or Facebook or Google to all their citizens. That would change Saudi Arabia more than skip a conference!
Read More

0 comentários:

New all time highs before the elections?

Wednesday, October 17, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:



At this point its seems possible having  the market back at the all time highs in time for the elections and the Nov. 7 FOMC meeting.
my base case scenario was for a retest of last week lows with sentiment diverging this week. It looks like the market just wants to go up ! 

Read More

0 comentários:

Is Wall Street going to save the Nikkei this week?

Tuesday, October 16, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

My bet is yes





Read More

0 comentários:

Plan for this week

Monday, October 15, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Big picture ----we are in a bull market until probably 2019/2020 recession! in 1999 Nasdaq doubled in the last days of the bull. usually we can make a lot of money from the end of the party when the not so smart money finally enters the party
good scenario

 a lower low this week without fear / sentiment divergence would mark the bottom and we would have a V recovery after that. We are entering the best time of the year for equities.
bad scenario

 the market just keeps going up without volume or power











Read More

0 comentários:

What is logic?

Friday, October 12, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

sell bonds & cash and put a bit more money into equities, probably Tech

 when ? My guess, yes ut's a guess  we will have one or two more down days 

From GaveKal

The S&P 500 is down almost -7% in six days, the biggest drawdown since the -10% decline in the first quarter. It is now below its 200-day moving average, for the first time since April 2nd. Will it bounce back, or is a US equity bear market now upon us? I would bet on the former, but not too aggressively.





Read More

0 comentários:

We are in a Bull market !

Thursday, October 11, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Time to time we have a dip

in a Bull market it pays to buy the dips

If you want to play safe wait for a big day with volume!

if today the market opens gap down i might buy a bit more.







Read More

0 comentários:

There is no premium for doing the easy things.

Monday, October 08, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:


Yale Invests in Crypto Fund 

I have a little money in Bitcoin just in case David nails it again.

About Yale the best endowment in the last 20 years i met David in Lisbon in 2004 and his message was clear. If you can go for iliquidity, just do it,  because it has a premium. Target equities and iliquid assets and you will be rewarded.

I should listen to him and just execute.

to do shortcuts (cut corners) like liquid alternatives with daily liquidity highly regulated and available to retail it so easy that it can't work. There is no premium for doing the easy things. It's just like that! sorry.

From Bloomberg

 Yale University, the Ivy League school that has invested in everything from Puerto Rican bonds to timber in New Hampshire, is getting into the market for cryptocurrencies.

 ....

 Swensen’s endorsement of crypto assets is significant because he’s considered a pioneer in institutional investing, having managed one of the most-watched and best-performing college endowments for three decades. Many other endowments have sought to replicate his investment model, which favors a longer time horizon and committing capital to more illiquid assets, including private equity.
U.S. college endowments hold about $550 billion in assets, and Yale has the second largest in higher education, behind Harvard. Under Swensen’s leadership, Yale has returned 11.8 percent on average for the past 20 years.
Almost 60 percent of Yale’s assets in fiscal 2019 are targeted for alternative investments including venture capital, hedge funds and leveraged buyouts, according to the school.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-05/yale-is-said-to-invest-in-crypto-fund-that-raised-400-million
Read More

0 comentários:

Rutina

Tuesday, October 02, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Yo tuve la suerte de estar bien preprado para alguien como Botvinnik gracias a mi madre Klara. Mi madre herdó un estricto sentido de la importancia del orden y la rutina de su propria familia. Para mí, las cosas sencillamente funcionaban así, y simpre me sentí cómodo con este regimen. Dormir, comer, ir a la escuela, estudiar y divertirse, todo formaba parte de un horario.

 Gary Kasparov


what can i say more, a routine makes everything easy. if you make your bed everyday you start thinking that is the way things are and it costs you zero. you just do it . Routine defines what you are.Choose a rutine that is good for you and just do it over and over again

 i suggest 4 that really help me

sleep plenty
walk everyday or do some sport
silence your cell phone
read everyday 

Resultado de imagem para garry kasparov books free download life imitates chess
Read More

0 comentários:

What worries Gary Shilling Now?

Monday, October 01, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

From Market Watch
“The ultimate thing that brings down financial markets is excess leverage … So, you look where’s the big leverage, and right now I think it’s in emerging markets.”
Shilling is particularly worried about the $8 trillion in dollar-denominated emerging-market corporate and sovereign debt, especially as the U.S. dollar rises along with interest rates. “The problem is as the dollar increases,” he said, “it gets tougher and tougher for them to service [that debt] because it takes more and more of their local currency to do so.” Of that, $249 billion must be repaid or refinanced through next year, Bloomberg reported.
What can be added to the happiness of a man who is in health, out of debt, and has a clear conscience? 

 Adam Smith
Read More

0 comentários:

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)