If the dollar does the unthinkable and begins to collapse we might get the bottom in stocks today or tomorrow.

Thursday, December 20, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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• From Gavekal, Will Denyer
• Despite relatively dovish comments from the Federal Reserve about the future trajectory of interest rates, US equities fell further on Wednesday. The S&P 500 has now fallen -14% since early October to hit a 15-month low. Meanwhile, 10-year treasury prices have risen almost 5%. Momentum traders will therefore find good reason to shun equities and add exposure to long-dated treasuries. We suggest doing the opposite.

Today might be an up day

Wednesday, December 19, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Sentimentrader:
During the past 3 sessions, the number of 52-week
highs on the NYSE have made up fewer than 1.25% of new highs and
new lows. This kind of overwhelming push in new lows has been seen
on 41 days in the past 30 years. All 41 showed a higher return in the
S&P 500 over the next year, averaging 20.6%. On a medium-term time
frame, the only days with meaningful losses were 5 sessions in early
October 2008

Perhaps today the market just shots higher slowly and then faster or after the FED drop and very quickly reverse

If you are a trader sell, if you are an investor sit tight

Tuesday, December 18, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the Great IBD

The stock market autumn swoon got worse Monday after indexes undercut key levels on their charts, forcing investors to raise their defenses.
The Nasdaq composite undercut its Nov. 20 low, ending a once-promising rally. The Nasdaq closed 2.3% lower and slid further below 7000, around where support existed in late October and November. The S&P 500 lost 2.1% and tumbled below 2600, a floor that had held in the past.
With indexes falling below prior lows, IBD cut its outlook to "market in correction." This signals investors to move into cash as much as possible and as soon as possible.Reduce exposure by taking some profits. Most important, avoid buying stocks and sell any holding that falls 7% or 8% below the purchase price. Hold only the few stocks that are still outperforming and deserving of your confidence.



From my long term investments i will sell zero. Most of my holdings are in my portfolio for years and are deeply in the green.

From my trading account i am out of the market.! 


Here are the five most common mistakes fund investors make, according to O'Neil:
1. Failing to sit tight.
2. Worrying about a fund's management fee, its turnover rate, or the dividend it pays.
3. Being affected by news in the market when you're supposed to be investing for the long term.
4. Selling out during bad markets.
5. Being impatient and losing confidence too soon.

one bad Idea

Monday, December 17, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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one bad idea , negative interest rates.

if you have savings you receive zero for your savings. zero or negative

what do you do when your savings earn zero, you spend less & less you don't want to consume your capital. You lay low 

The European Banking Index is destroyed trading at 91 almost at all time lows

is it possible to have a good economy with sick banks? 

The European Central Bank (ECB) pushed its deposit rate to minus 0.4 percent in April 2016: Since then, euro area banks must pay 0.4 percent per annum on their excess reserves held at ECB accounts. This, in turn, has far-reaching consequences. To start with, banks seek to evade this "penalty rate," especially by buying government bonds.

Buy high and sell higher

Friday, December 14, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is
imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we
understand the market's technical s. When we do, then, and only then, can we or

should we, trade.
Dennis Gartman



The action of the market says stay out for the moment. (USD strong)

Many indicators say in 6 months the market should be higher, we must be near a bottom


I am in the camp of buying high and sell higher i will wait. i don't need to pick a bottom, to buy low and sell higher it's difficult because i never know when it's low.


1.sentiment is not making new lows. Divergence




2.Smart Money confidence is high

The Illusion

Wednesday, December 12, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Charles Gave



I guess in Europe it does't matter where you vote you always get more taxes and more Government

Nasdaq didn't make new low yesterday!

Tuesday, December 11, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Sniffing a recession

Monday, December 10, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Tks  Max Gottschalk  for discovering this chart.This is why the market is sniffing a recession in 2019/2020

why is this going up?

Friday, December 07, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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If a market is making a substantial move and traders seem to understand why, this market trend is not going to last very long. However, if the market is moving in one direction and nobody has a clue as to why, then the trend is going to be prolonged. When the market goes up or down for no apparent reason, it tends to go a lot further in that direction than people can imagine.

Mark B. Fisher


When good news about the market hits the front page of the New York Times, sell. 
Bernard Baruch

A good reason to buy is slow moving higher without reason. you ask why is this going up?? every time I see this I think about joining the party

Here we go again

Wednesday, December 05, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Forget higher rates in Europe.....

Family owned companies outperform companies where CEO thinks he is the owner

Tuesday, December 04, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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My take family business don't issue tons of new shares and that is a big discipline. Professional CEO's are always asking new capital and that is very dillutive and permits big empire building and great visions. 

less vision and more incremental apparently is best.


From Quartz:

Whether it’s a first-generation family start-up or a fifth-generation multi-national, family businesses outperform consistently. In particular, Non-Japan Asia and Central America are seeing young, dynamic family businesses bursting onto the scene in the emerging tech sector, while performance (although diminishing over time), remains strong in Europe and the US for older, more resilient businesses. This can be attributed to a tendency to be conservative in nature, minimizing risk where possible, giving stamina to outlast their more volatile competitors with the presence of mind to carefully balance the books.

The bottom line: Family- and founder-owned companies are outperforming their peers because they’re focused on the long-term. Not every company can operate like family businesses, but more companies can think like them.

A move without news is the Best

Tuesday, December 04, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Again above 200 day moving average. we are not out of the woods yet. a move with news is not a high quality move. let's see what is going to happen. let the market tell us what to do.

All time highs until the FED is still possible but I need to see a move without Powell or Trump/XI

If you love animals don’t miss it

Monday, December 03, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Photo ARK is in Lisbon.


Photo Ark is a multiyear effort with Joel Sartore to photograph all captive species and inspire people to save these animals before they disappear forever.

I love his looks ! He is not happy! ummmmm