Wednesday 30 October 2019
Tuesday 29 October 2019
No cavities ever!
The Maasai tribes in Africa eat only animals including the blood. They are the tallest and healthiest humans on the continent. Neighboring tribes that farm are shorter and susceptible to more disease. Zero obesity - no modern ailments. Do some research. Afraid of what you’ll find
KURT Taylor
The Maasai in East Africa consume a high-fat diet, but they don’t seem to suffer from lifestyle diseases.
It's not just the diet.
“On average, the Maasai move 75 percent more than we do in the West,” says Christensen. “Our activity level is about 44 kJ/kg/d, while for Maasai women the figure is 75 kJ/kg/d and for Maasai men it is 78 kJ/kg/d.”
The most Bullish signal in the world
From The Irrelevant Investor
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/10/28/the-most-bullish-signal-in-the-world/
MY Note: If this the most bullish signal I would be very concerned if the market turns down after the FED Wednesday. That would mean that this was a manufacturing top. I am not betting on this.
- This will be the 777th intra-day all-time high since 1982*
- All-time highs have happened on just over 8% of all days
- The average 1-year return is 10.2%. The average 1-year return following an all-time high is 11.5%. This does not include dividends
So everyone is bullish right? Hardly. According to Barron’s latest Big Money Poll, only 27% of money managers are bullish on the stock market over the next 12 months, which is the lowest reading in 20 years......
I understand this sentiment, but it’s almost impossible to be a good investor if the most bullish signal in the world is interpreted as anything other than what it really is.
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/10/28/the-most-bullish-signal-in-the-world/
MY Note: If this the most bullish signal I would be very concerned if the market turns down after the FED Wednesday. That would mean that this was a manufacturing top. I am not betting on this.
Monday 28 October 2019
Don't worry Be happy
Books don’t usually come with theme songs. But if I had to pick one for my
professional autobiography, it would be “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” (1988),
written and sung by Bobby McFerrin. During the 40 years that I have spent
on Wall Street as an economist and investment strategist, investors benefited
from great bull markets in both stocks and bonds. Yet instead of being happy,
it seemed to me that most investors were worried for most of that time.
Ed Yardeni new book
You can't always cry wolf, it rarely works to bet on the end of the world. Perhaps if you are very very rich it pays to very cautious either you stay the same if the markets go up or you lose very little if they go down. however if inflation comes even a rich person can lost their purchasing power.
My recommendation
don't worry be happy and invest in the new thing before it's obvious
there is always a bull market in the world and my job is to find it out
you look smart if you are always pessimistic but it doesn't work. Usually to look smart is never well paid. Better to look dumb it's much better paid.
Friday 25 October 2019
Negative rates
“if negative nominal interest rates are perceived as a more permanent
state, the behavior of agents may change and negative effects may arise.”
Swedish Riksbank, an early pioneer of negative rates
state, the behavior of agents may change and negative effects may arise.”
Swedish Riksbank, an early pioneer of negative rates
Thursday 24 October 2019
IPO's 101
IPOs Can Be Dangerous When Every Stock Analyst Is Bullish
when a small number of shares is being floated for the first time, the probability of the price going up is huge.
Monday 21 October 2019
Sunday 20 October 2019
Electric Bike
A weekend in the mountains
I went with my wife to the mountains, she beat me hard with an electric bike. This opens big new possibilities for training.
who said the progress is not changing our lives for the better!
I went with my wife to the mountains, she beat me hard with an electric bike. This opens big new possibilities for training.
who said the progress is not changing our lives for the better!
Wednesday 16 October 2019
Tuesday 15 October 2019
I am with Bruce Lee on this........
“Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives - choice, not chance, determines your destiny.”
― Aristotle
I think FOCUS+REPETITION are a sure way to Excellence, don't try too many things just get better and better, small steps and keep pressing
I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.
Bruce Lee
― Aristotle
I think FOCUS+REPETITION are a sure way to Excellence, don't try too many things just get better and better, small steps and keep pressing
I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.
Bruce Lee
Breaking up family fortunes over time
From Zero Hedge
Billionaires could be slapped with an effective tax rate of 97.5% if Bernie Sanders wins the 2020 presidential elections, reported Bloomberg, who spoke with two economists advising both the Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren Presidential Campaigns.
Sanders' effective tax rate of 97.5%, includes an income tax, but also a wealth tax that is aimed at breaking up family fortunes over time.
This is called social engineering you decide who are the winners and the losers. This communist can say that this is fair.
I don't like to see this even if i am not a billionaire , i always think if they are doing this to these people one day it will get to me.
about the 1% vs the rest three things are worth considering
a)some of the 1% were poor and now are Billionaires, it's possible to do this ? if yes the world is ok
b)the other 99% are better then they were 10, 20 , 30 years ago? everybody is getting better at different paces? if yes the world is working ok
c)the counties where there are Bernie Sanders in power people live better?
i rest my case
Thursday 10 October 2019
Just do it
It's not enough to read, you have to act....I have read all this books reading is very satisfying but action is more important.
“Action may not always bring happiness, but there is no happiness without action. ”
― William James
“Action expresses priorities.”
― Mahatma Gandhi
“Action may not always bring happiness, but there is no happiness without action. ”
― William James
“Action expresses priorities.”
― Mahatma Gandhi
It doesn't look like a top......
AAII data shows investor sentiment turning toward pessimism: Bulls at lowest level since mid-2016 but bears still below where they were in August (48%).
How do you survive if you don't have a Bullshit Detector ....................
When i started in 1988 i went to a seminar and the guy presenting asked.
what do you need to have to do well in the markets
no one gave a decent answer
he just said
You need a bullshit detector
After 30 years i know he was very right.
if you do't have a good decent bullshit detector just listen to ED Seykota, yes the great Ed Seykota
It looks dumb to be bulish but
some Observations
1.since unemployment is so low in the US (50 year low) it's normal that fewer and fewer jobs will be added every month? Not a lot of decent candidates in the idle/leftover people still unemployed
2..For The First Time Ever, Greece Issues Negative Yielding Debt
3.Momentum Horrible then Momentum great, what happens next?
4.I know it's a boring stock but yesterday AAPL gave a buy signal.
1.since unemployment is so low in the US (50 year low) it's normal that fewer and fewer jobs will be added every month? Not a lot of decent candidates in the idle/leftover people still unemployed
2..For The First Time Ever, Greece Issues Negative Yielding Debt
3.Momentum Horrible then Momentum great, what happens next?
From Sentiment Trader.com
4.I know it's a boring stock but yesterday AAPL gave a buy signal.
Thursday 3 October 2019
The only injustice there is in the world
The good student making more money than the bad student is not injustice
The person who works hard making more money than the lazy ok
The person who has no high education and owns a business making more money than a Phd no injustice at all
The person who goes to a new industry making more money than the person who engages in well known profession ok
The student who goes to study something very few people choose making more money than the student who goes to a popular option ok
the person who does something where there are thousands of other people competing for the same job barely surviving, normal ok
to me the only injustice in the world is the place you are born. If you are born in Africa you have a serious problem.
If you are born in Europe or US is very possible that you can be a very rich person. many of the biggest companies in the world did not existed 15 years ago!Social mobility is possible desirable and a reality.(look at China)
There are other injustices of course. To be born without good health is one. But to smoke, drink, eat a lot of sugar and do little exercise and have no health it's normal.
another injustice is taxes. if you do well someone robs you success. Income taxes are a big injustice. What is fair is for things to be what they are, for the student who got 90 (in 100) to be 90. If we take 10 points from the good student and now he gets 80 and you give the difference to a bad student that is not fair. That is twisting reality.
On a different note someone asked me what is the source of the this graph below. Here it is with the source in it. it looks like the good old times were not good at all. don't touch don't destroy our system. Apparently the world is going very well.
Wednesday 2 October 2019
Good Time to Buy! yes
From Ciovacco Capital
what happens to the stock market after the ISM falls below 50?
Usually the market is already down big time when the ISM crosses 49 that is why one year later we get (exception GFC) the market up. let's see what happens this time
what happens to the stock market after the ISM falls below 50?
Usually the market is already down big time when the ISM crosses 49 that is why one year later we get (exception GFC) the market up. let's see what happens this time