Friday 28 February 2020
Why is the market diving?
Is it the virus? No the virus is not so bad at all. It's because the market (equities) is pricing in a recession. That is it
Normally in a recession markets fall between 20% and 50%. 2008 56% in 2000 49% etc....
From Charles GAVE excellent piece yesterday
As Frédéric Bastiat never tired of saying, economics is all about “what is seen, and what is not seen.” In recent years, what markets have seen is the rise of profit margins permitted by globalization, and the adoption of the platform company model. What markets have not seen so clearly is the rise in fragility that came with the optimization of supply chains: fragility as supply chains became ever more dependent on China; political fragility as Western workers (and voters) felt increasingly squeezed out; and financial fragility as Western governments continue to increase budget deficits, passing on to future generations the cost of running today’s welfare states.
Thursday 27 February 2020
MAD Cow disease II
a pandemic of fear
Is Covid-19 a serious thing? NO I am not a doctor but I say NO . I saw enough. It can kill some people yes.
1,6 Million die each year of Diarrhea Diseases
2000 so far of Coronavirus
let's stop the world because of Coronavirus
This officially started on the 24th of January but it took several days /weeks to reach Europe. This is fast???
apparently only sick and old people dye like the FLU (less numbers)
The Governments are taking the opportunity to do more, more governments more control more checks more spending more everything
To me this is a joke
I was here in Portugal when there was the Mad Cow disease where no one eat BEEF there was panic. How many people died of MAD COW disease? ZERO
Of course if people think this is a serious thing This is a serious thing.
There is a lot of people (Journalists that want the worse)
Look what Ed yardeni Says !
“Extreme government responses aimed at containing the virus, while effective, will create a pandemic of fear, increasing the risk of a global recession and bear market in stocks,” Yardeni writes. Yardeni had previously identified 65 “panic attacks” during the bull market and believes the coronavirus may have the dubious honor of being the 66th. While taking effort not to minimize the suffering of those afflicted and killed by the virus, Yardeni notes that more people have died from the flu this year, and that more than 80% of coronavirus cases are said to be mild.
Is Covid-19 a serious thing? NO I am not a doctor but I say NO . I saw enough. It can kill some people yes.
1,6 Million die each year of Diarrhea Diseases
2000 so far of Coronavirus
let's stop the world because of Coronavirus
This officially started on the 24th of January but it took several days /weeks to reach Europe. This is fast???
apparently only sick and old people dye like the FLU (less numbers)
The Governments are taking the opportunity to do more, more governments more control more checks more spending more everything
To me this is a joke
I was here in Portugal when there was the Mad Cow disease where no one eat BEEF there was panic. How many people died of MAD COW disease? ZERO
Of course if people think this is a serious thing This is a serious thing.
There is a lot of people (Journalists that want the worse)
Look what Ed yardeni Says !
“Extreme government responses aimed at containing the virus, while effective, will create a pandemic of fear, increasing the risk of a global recession and bear market in stocks,” Yardeni writes. Yardeni had previously identified 65 “panic attacks” during the bull market and believes the coronavirus may have the dubious honor of being the 66th. While taking effort not to minimize the suffering of those afflicted and killed by the virus, Yardeni notes that more people have died from the flu this year, and that more than 80% of coronavirus cases are said to be mild.
Wednesday 26 February 2020
Too many F words but useful
Sorry for the language I try now to use it. I believe I can express myself without Cursing
This too shall pass.
The market will continue up with the normal periodic panics
We are in a periodic panic. The only thing that could ruin the Bull besides a serious recession (It's very possible) is inflation. There is no inflation, no yields up no competition to equities.
let's monitor the recession. I think it's very possible
Get a shopping list and enjoy the SALE. This shall pass as usual
BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE WE ARE GOING DOWN MORE short term ..... But for a medium term perspective just stay the course. IF you don't want big emotions just sell the market and relax .
there no Sure things but I thing Short term treasuries will keep going up
We are in a periodic panic. The only thing that could ruin the Bull besides a serious recession (It's very possible) is inflation. There is no inflation, no yields up no competition to equities.
let's monitor the recession. I think it's very possible
Get a shopping list and enjoy the SALE. This shall pass as usual
BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE WE ARE GOING DOWN MORE short term ..... But for a medium term perspective just stay the course. IF you don't want big emotions just sell the market and relax .
there no Sure things but I thing Short term treasuries will keep going up
Wednesday 19 February 2020
Small is not Beautiful
From the WSJ
Why Do the Biggest Companies Keep Getting Bigger? It’s How They Spend on Tech
Your suspicions are correct: The biggest companies in every field are pulling away from their peers faster than ever, sucking up the lion’s share of revenue, profits and productivity gains.
Something has changed a bit, the big companies are killing the small ones. Look at the line Size. small-large keeps going down. Regulation helps the big guys because it's cheaper to face the costs of regulation for a huge company. If you invest 10% of sales in R&D the big guy....If you spend in marketing 10% of your sales..... There is a limit where the big and fat guy starts to get lazy and slow but I don't see that happening. This movement is good for USA because some of the biggest companies in the world are there.
Why Do the Biggest Companies Keep Getting Bigger? It’s How They Spend on Tech
Your suspicions are correct: The biggest companies in every field are pulling away from their peers faster than ever, sucking up the lion’s share of revenue, profits and productivity gains.
Something has changed a bit, the big companies are killing the small ones. Look at the line Size. small-large keeps going down. Regulation helps the big guys because it's cheaper to face the costs of regulation for a huge company. If you invest 10% of sales in R&D the big guy....If you spend in marketing 10% of your sales..... There is a limit where the big and fat guy starts to get lazy and slow but I don't see that happening. This movement is good for USA because some of the biggest companies in the world are there.
Friday 14 February 2020
An inexhaustible supply of energy, without pollution or global warming.
I would like nuclear fusion to become a practical power source. It would provide an inexhaustible supply of energy, without pollution or global warming.
Nuclear energy offers a clean, abundant source of baseload energy (non-intermittent and with low variable costs) with a better safety record than any other source, and it is almost essential in the context of the electrification of the global vehicle fleet in any realistic scenario in the long term.
Fernado Bernad, AZ Valor
“Because normal human activity is worse for nature than the greatest nuclear accident in history.”
― Martin Cruz Smith
The Idea that the world is discontinuing nuclear is just stupid. Only someone with an agenda (something to gain) can speak on it.
Thursday 13 February 2020
Tuesday 11 February 2020
You Will Not Grow Until You Learn to Tolerate Discomfort
Discomfort may be a doorway; don’t run from it
― Joseph Deitch, Elevate: An Essential Guide to Life
“Fatigue, discomfort, discouragement are merely symptoms of effort.”
― Morgan Freeman
I am not a No pain No gain Guy, I know that it works, yes i know that in sports you have to create disruption in your body and them to do the normal is very easy. I know this. It's totally true. However in endurance sports the Constance of training and consistency also works and I don't have horrible workouts. Since i have a coach I train less extreme , less discomfort and better results. But I am a guy that can train easy and in the big day I do much better than in training.
Perhaps there is an alternative way that is Focus and repetition and you grow just by repetition. If you want results fast, just be a bit crazy and sustain some discomfort. I read Elon Musk bio, this guy sustained a lot of personal discomfort. Even in sales this is true. Just stay the course. Persist.
― Joseph Deitch, Elevate: An Essential Guide to Life
“Fatigue, discomfort, discouragement are merely symptoms of effort.”
― Morgan Freeman
I am not a No pain No gain Guy, I know that it works, yes i know that in sports you have to create disruption in your body and them to do the normal is very easy. I know this. It's totally true. However in endurance sports the Constance of training and consistency also works and I don't have horrible workouts. Since i have a coach I train less extreme , less discomfort and better results. But I am a guy that can train easy and in the big day I do much better than in training.
Perhaps there is an alternative way that is Focus and repetition and you grow just by repetition. If you want results fast, just be a bit crazy and sustain some discomfort. I read Elon Musk bio, this guy sustained a lot of personal discomfort. Even in sales this is true. Just stay the course. Persist.
The Comfortable Life is Killing you
Society tames the wolf into a dog.
And man is the most domesticated
animal of all.
And man is the most domesticated
animal of all.
~ Nietzsche
From Erik Rittenberry
Freud defined depression as anger turned inwards. There’s some truth to this for sure, but I think the great existential psychologist, Rollo May, defined it more accurately — “Depression is the inability to construct a future.”
And anxiety simply comes from, as Rollo May also pointed out, “not being able to know the world you’re in, not being able to orient yourself in your own existence.”
https://medium.com/@erikrittenberry/the-comfortable-life-is-killing-you-61cae61622e7
Of course comfort life is killing everybody, you don't walk you don't run you don't experience hunger and you don't want to be sick and lay in bet time to time. You need to expose yourself to cold and to nature. I need it big time. When I am out for a bike ride at 7h30 it's freezing cold but after a while everything is beautiful. last Saturday we started our ride under the rain but after a while it got better and we made a good day. 120 km it was a very good day.
just relax and don't wish the world to be perfect. Just enjoy the here and now. have a great day. walk for 1 hour today.