My predictions for 2021 !

Thursday, December 31, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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I don't have a clue about what is going to happen in 2021 but I agree with Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers warns stock bubble will grow in 2021: "I've seen this movie before" - Marketplace

2020 was a very good year for the markets bitcoin exploded higher so did tech

Covid  depressed and killed a lot of people but excess mortality is really low. The amount of people that died in 2020 is similar to other years. Not a big change , of course Covid exists but apparently causes similar overall deaths than other causes in other years.

Covid is not the main cause of death in 2021 by far.

The people that claim 2020 is one of the worst year ever are wrong.

Some people were hurt by the precautions taken by the governments and that is unfair. The government should not play God. government is not God should not condemn some people to poverty to eventually save someone else etc...

My lessons from 2020 are 3

1.The triumph of the optimists. Yes it pays to be optimist as usual. when Covid hit there was reason to sell to be cautions but the markets turned up and there was time to make a lot of money until the end of the year. I was too cautions and wrong.

2.Act when you have a buy signal. bitcoin gave me a buy signal in July as well as Gold. I bought both Bitcoin worked very well, Gold not so well

3.Try to be fit. Even in Covid the fit people did much better than the overweight etc...

what to do in 2021 

1.walk everyday, move, be in shape

2. optimists live longer & live better

Learned Optimism: Martin Seligman on Happiness, Depression, and the Meaningful Life

Europe in one Chart

Monday, December 28, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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I don't know what is wrong with Europe but we are at 2000 level. yes some people might be better than they were in 2000 but on average no progress was made.

Europe missed the entertainment business, Netflix etc... 

Europe missed the content

Europe missed music

Europe missed the education battle

Europe misses the software boom

Europe missed innovation , missed the new thing

Europe has the best Government programs, the best subsidies for movies , the best subsidies for research , the best goverment , the biggest goverment etc....

Europe has the biggest taxes in the world

Europe has no babies

in europe is very difficult for the average person to live.

If we want to curb carbon emissions there are only two ways....

Monday, December 28, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 If we want to curb carbon emissions there are only 2 ways

To go Nuclear or to Go poor !

Wind and solar are no alternative they don't move the needle. Each time governments discontinue a nuclear power plant more gas generation is needed. alternative energy is no Alternative. There must be a reason for so much money to Solar & Wind subsidies and it's not because of the envoirment.

“Nuclear is the most effective tool we have to decrease or avoid emissions.”

James Conca

From FORBES,Dec 27, 2020,12:15pm EST|1,387 views

Why Is Solar Energy Getting 250 Times More In Federal Tax Credits Than Nuclear?

The world’s top climatologists have agreed that we will need more nuclear energy – at the gigawatt and terawatt scale — if we are going to have any hope of limiting greenhouse gas emissions. It’s also clear that we must also preserve and extend the operating lives of existing nuclear reactors. That’s not happening. Instead, reactors are being shuttered and their output is being replaced by natural gas-fired generators. 

Scott I will sell my Bitcoins to you at 200,000 ! you can double your money still!

Thursday, December 17, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 Money can be printed, Bitcoin is in short supply and many Bitcoins are lost. when one bitcoin cost USD 6000 I could recommend to  buy some bitcoins and see what was going to happen. Now that a bitcoin is worth north of USD 20,000 it's becoming tricky, only very rich people can buy 1 bitcoin. I guess people will start trading fractions. I still recommend that everybody should have a bit of bitcoin.

Can Bitcoin go trugh the roof? NO 

why?

because I prefer to buy one house than having 2 bitcoins.

when the price reaches 200,000 I will sell my Bitcoins and buy one farm 

I posted this in 2019

https://thoughtmeme.blogspot.com/2019/04/if-bitcoin-does-succeed-1-bitcoin-may.html

Simply put, people want more of those things they can have less of.

When British Airways announced in 2003 that they would no longer be operating the twice daily London—New York Concorde flight because it had become uneconomical to run, sales the very next day took off.

Notice that nothing had changed about the Concorde itself. It certainly didn’t fly any faster, the service didn’t suddenly get better, and the airfare didn’t drop. It had simply become a scarce resource. And as a result, people wanted it more.

Why alternative energy is not alternative

Friday, December 11, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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From Charles Gave of Gavekal

The older I get, the more I am convinced that the economy is nothing but energy transformed. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the story of the economy has been one of constant movement from not very efficient sources of energy, such as wood and then coal, to more “dense” and efficient sources, such as oil and nuclear fission, with the aim having been to arrive eventually at nuclear fusion.

However, in the last couple of decades we have decided to go backwards, to less efficient sources of energy such as wind and sunlight.

My take:

1.Alternative energy is not alternative because humans have used sun, water, wind and geothermal forever and were poor because of that.

2.Technology has improved and wind, solar can be more effective but far away from fossil or nuclear

3.If despite rules incentives and government meddling Alternatives never become 1/3 of world demand and since there is no investment in oil oil is going to overshoot. Alternatives is not an alternative.

4.If alternatives is a real alternative and become 50% of demand since de Saudis, Iran , etc will fight for a small pie (only 50%) oil will gravitate to USD 15 that is their marginal cost.

My take is that we will have scenario 3 first . 

People like to be consistent with the things they have previously said or done.

Wednesday, December 09, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Once people make a decision, take a stand or perform an action, they will face an interpersonal pressure to behave in a consistent manner with what they have said or done previously

If you publicly state your position you have a big trouble changing it. If you are a stock market trader you should never take a stand. what makes sense in life is to adapt and react to the situation.  However people don't want to think and some things get automated and that helps us survive in a complex world. This is a big tool to the marketing person, if you get your prospect to take a stand (even a small one) they will probably will be consistent with the first stand. 

 "Consistency is contrary to nature, contrary to life. The only completely consistent people are the dead."

"IF I SEE RED, I SELL QUICKLY"

Tuesday, December 08, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 There are many ways to skin a cat as people use to say. One is to buy things that are

a)still unknown;

b)have a new product;

c)and are still small.

if you do that you will have some things going negative, I cut them fast like Barbara Streisand below, but you can have some names that can give you 100 to 1

This is one thing that I do for my clients in our Lisbon Family Office. We try to shoot for the stars.