The roots of education are bitter
The roots of education are bitter, but the fruit is sweet.
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You don't become enormously successful ..............
You don't become enormously successful without encountering and overcoming a number of extremely challenging problems. – Mark Victor Hansen
One of the best books ever is the Zero to One from Pieter Thiel (I met him twice once in San Francisco and once in Lausanne) one of the ideas is that there are two ways to get better, Globalization, see what works elsewhere and copy, this is the Mckinsey way. It works up to a point. It's safer than doing nothing. The second is to create a new path, if it works the benefits can be huge.
The core lesson is that the best and most disruptive companies go “from zero to one,” from non-existence to existence, from no solution to solution, from nothing expected to something expected. Most companies, though, go from 1 to 1.1, or 1.1 to 1.11, they don’t make a huge disruptive change. To have a lasting impact, you must find a zero and create a new paradigm.
“Today’s “best practices” lead to dead ends; the best paths are new and untried.”
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DISNEY
"there is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect. The good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen... Whence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil".
Bastiat
I don't follow Disney closely, I don't take my kid to their parks and I don't have Disney + but when they decided to launch DISNEY + some years ago I thought it was stupid. I like to go to a supermarket and choose a wine between many different ones. One stop many choices. In content, Disney has their platform , HBO, theirs, Netflix, AMAZON etc... it's stupid I have to buy 3 or 4 subscriptions instead of one. It's a bad idea these guys are killing each other .
SELL all of them because managements don't want to make money. They don't want to get along.
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it is the markets that drive news
Price is news and the rest is noise. News (noise) is a lagging indicator.
When the news is out it's too late, that is why people say buy the rumor & sell the news.
Some insiders move the price first and then when the news is out the latecomers do the final jump.
when does make sense to buy the news?
when there is a surprise, when the price moves a lot on the news, typically it lasts a bit longer. If it moves a lot it's because no one was expecting it.
News does not drive markets or prices; it is the markets that drive news
"To be completely cured of newspapers, spend a year reading the previous week's newspapers." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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What a start of the year
There is a time to be in the market, and a time to sit out. Real learning is implementing it. Happy to have done so, albeit not fully.
We are in a Bear Market
Looking at the table below it looks like a good entry point, however in many of these years the market fell further and recovered later in the year.
There is no exact timing to enter, the rule should be start buying when there is blood on the street. Bit by bit.
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ROME +AMALFI
I spent 5 days in Rome +Amalfi coast with my wife
We have been several times to Rome so let's talk about Amalfi
We drive to AMALFI but it's a problem to park, we rented a scooter.
We stayed in hotel with direct access to the sea, that is key
Don't stay inside AMAFI or Positano, it's a mess with thousands of tourists
Food is great, everywhere
You must be fit , the amount of stairs ....
The best is the water, the sea, the color is amazing, I spend most of the time in the water
To spend a holiday in a boat is not for me, I saw people trapped in a boat in no room to move. That is not for me
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They can destroy rich people (countries) lives but...
I don't think there is any global warming and Climate change is a given, there was always Climate change even when humans where not big. If we really want to cut Global Emissions the only way is trough nuclear + saving technologies. Do more with less.
To suppress life it's not going to work because people will burn coal or wood. people want to live.
The climate change folks never seem to realize what us rich people do is fairly irrelevant. The VAST majority of CO2 growth will come from the growth in 3rd world peasants that all want to be middle class.
Peter Zeihan
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About Guns
I am totally pro Guns, I would love to have a gun for defense purposes. If some old ladies prevent a robbery or some people prevent rape and assault because they have a gun that for me is enough reason to have guns.
Guns is the great equalizer without guns the bullies would control the world.
Guns are the great equalizer between men and women. Take guns away, women are in fact weaker physically and more susceptible to harm.
To sell gun's to kids is idiotic of course, but everybody can get a gun even if it's illegal. Any rules to prevent people to have guns only affect the decent people.
Joe Rogan just came out against gun control. He said, "only criminals are gonna have them."
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The best time to build a nuclear plant was 15 years ago
Energy is Life
If you want to move right (better life) you need more energy not less (see graph below)
No one wants to move left, less energy/less GDP / worse life. The Green Agenda is making energy very expensive. Rich countries can take that and subsidize their poor that are suffering. Poor countries do very well to ignore the green agenda and try to move right in the graph.
It's a rich country suicide.
The best time to build a nuclear plant was 15 years ago; the second-best time is today.
Louis Vincent Gave
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From LOUIS-VINCENT GAVE
GAVEKAL RESEARCH
As Sherlock Holmes noted, “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”. If getting energy from Russia is now impossible, but returning to coal is also impossible, then the only option left on the table for Europe is some kind of energy rationing. Unfortunately, down this path lies economic depression (since economic activity is mostly energy transformed), unemployment, social tensions and rioting. Also down this path lies investor repulsion, for who would want to deploy capital in an area where energy is rationed? This in turn raises the question: how can a region that will suffer energy rationing and capital withdrawal hope to register any kind of future productivity gains?
Putting this all together, it seems likely that the world will be divided between “unscrupulous” economies that burn coal and trade with Russia, and “virtuous” economies in which investors will face energy rationing, falling productivity and growing resentment towards countries in the first grouping.
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If you need a degree to do it...............
"If you need a degree to do it, it’s not going to make you wealthy."
If you need a degree to to get a job , anyone that takes that degree can do that job. You are going to do just ok.
If you have a soft skill you probably can do very well. Examples:
If you want to do whatever you do well/Conscientiousness
If you want to finish things. Check
If you don't like to multitask
You beat any University degree 100 to 1
Conscientiousness is the personality trait of being thorough, careful, or vigilant. Conscientiousness implies a desire to do a task well.[1] Conscientious people are efficient and organized as opposed to easy-going and disorderly. They exhibit a tendency to show self-discipline, act dutifully, and aim for achievement; they display planned rather than spontaneous behavior; and they are generally organized and dependable.
"The overeducated are worse off than the undereducated, having traded common sense for the illusion of knowledge."
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Francisco Carneiro
Lisbon Family Office
There is always a Bull market in the World
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