I was wrong on this

Tuesday, December 27, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 I wrote this in 2016 in this Blog:

I think a country where the leader send her only daughter to Harvard is a country to respect. Now there are 304,000 Chinese Students in the USA. Why we should respect China? because they already have 4 things

work ethic
size 
organization
don't waste time in politics

what they are missing? Marketing and image. No one wants to buy a Chinese car. But this could change.

These students that are in USA might make the change. I am bullish on China

I was wrong at least in what concerns the stock market, China has been a disappointing and that is not new., see below Prof Siegel comments. To make money the solid and obvious almost always wins versus the exciting and the new. China is the future but not yet in the stock market.

I am bullish on China (2016)pot.com/2016/04/i-am-bullish-on-china.html

In 2022 6th edition of Stocks for the long Run Professor SIGEL writes

The last 30 years provide an even more striking example. From 1992 through 2020, China, the world's second economy, has generated the fastest GDP growth by far, averaging 9,3% percent per year. Yet the annual return on Chinese stocks has been only 2,7%, the absolute lowest among 18 emerging markets. In contrast, the highest stock market returns over this period among developing economies have been in Peru and Brazil, although they are near the bottom of GDP growth.

I first reported this seemingly puzzling result in the second edition of Stocks for the long run. I found that from 1970 to 1997, the correlation between stock returns and GDP growth was -0,32 for 17 developed countries and -0,03 for 19 emerging countries.

São Tomé

Monday, December 26, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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We have been in São Tomé all of last week. We went with the 5 kids. It's a very beautiful place, very quiet almost no tourists. The food is poor, only fish & rice. Lot's of fruit, manga, papaya, banana, Fruta Pão, Jacca etc... We had no alcool and no meat for 1 week. Wifi is good no TV. Lot's of reading and my wife took old clothes/books  and toys and we gave to the poor people in the village. We had lunch in House of D Fernanda and NEY. in São Tomé we have lunch in peoples houses. No restaurants and no Menu.

Great diving and wonderful swimming. We had rain everyday after lunch. temperature always 28 degrees Celsius. The bungalow had no windows just mosquito nets.

We will go again.

Never invest in anyone who wrote the book

Tuesday, December 13, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds

Ralph Waldo Emerson

Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative. 

Oscar Wilde

Consistency is contrary to nature, contrary to life. The only completely consistent people are dead. 

Aldous Huxley

Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change. 

Stephen Hawking

yes adapt or die.  I bought a book about value investing. The author was an investment manager very well known he lived in new Jersey. I invested in his fund that did exactly what the book said. conclusion: Never invest in anyone who wrote the book

There is nothing more beautiful than nature

Tuesday, December 06, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 There is nothing more beautiful than nature early in the morning... - Vincent Van Gogh

Why Momentum works

Sunday, December 04, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 "In the world of business, bad news often surfaces serially: You see a cockroach in your kitchen; as the days go by, you meet his relatives."

Warren Buffet

on the way up after the first good news we usually have a series of related news. after a surprise we have more surprises. when I see first good news I jump in.