Thought of the Day

From: Dr Ed's Blog

Human Self-Extinction

I observe that fertility rates have dropped below replacement rates around the world as a result of urbanization. Only in India and Africa are couples having enough babies to replace themselves. Humans are on a demographic path of self-extinction.

Leading the way has been Japan. I have often described the country as the world’s largest nursing home. That distinction undoubtedly will soon belong to China. All around the world, nursing homes will be bulging with more occupants, while the maternity wards will have lots of vacant cribs.

The economic consequences of these demographic trends will be slower growth and subdued inflation, if not outright deflation. That means that interest rates most likely will remain historically low for a very long time.

http://blog.yardeni.com/2019/01/on-demographic-path-to-human-self.html

Theresa May (British prime minister), Emmanuel Macron (president of France) and Angela Merkel (chancellor of Germany). World leaders, and child-free. Add in our own Leo Varadkar, Scotland’s Nicola Sturgeon and the Netherlands’ Mark Rutte and the link is an EU leadership powered by heads of governments that are not parents.

To have kids is a ruin this is the result! There is zero state incentive to have children and since education lasts until 25 years or even more the cost is out of the charts. This diploma race has a downside, people stop having many children because they can't afford. Only in underdeveloped countries people still have children, they are not yet in the Diploma race.

In Europe the cost of education can go up to EUR 250,000 per kid, since taxes are 50% you need to make 500,000 gross.

This is the same as a small apartment or the cost of all the cars that you will have in your life! No wonder that there are not many kids

Someone wrote this , I agree

the cost of having children is prohibitive (childcare costs, lack/ insufficient protected leave) for so many who would very much like to, and cruelly, can only afford to when it is too late

From J.P. Morgan Eye on the Market's

The importance of family rituals and mealtime for children

Dinnertime conversation boosts vocabulary even more than being read aloud to. Young children learn 1,000 rare words at the dinner table, compared to only 143 from parents reading storybooks aloud. Children who have a large vocabulary read earlier and more easily
For school-age children, regular mealtime is an even more powerful predictor of high achievement scores than time spent in school, doing homework, playing sports or making art
Regular family dinners lower high risk behaviors such as smoking, binge drinking, marijuana use, violence, school problems, eating disorders and depression

Sources: Journal of Family Psychology, Dec 2002; Child and Adolescent Development, Mar 2006; Journal of Marriage and Family, Mar 2001; Journal of Adolescence, Feb 2010; Canadian Family Physician, Feb 2015; Washington Post, Jan 12, 2015.

I guess some routine helps kids get ahead. I would like to do more but since my divorce it's difficult to get everybody together around the table. We eat with our 4 year old everyday that is a plus.

Is it better to but S&P at 2800 or 2400 ?

As the market goes down the chance of making money goes up in the long run

in the short run if the market is cracking the risk is big that it can continue going down. why? because there are people that are stopped out as the market falls.

in the short run it pays to buy markets that are making new all time highs

in the long run it pays to buy markets that are making 3 or 4 year lows

I am a short run guy. I want to make money NOW

I guess Germany!

The market doesn't look ok as we speak
USD is going up not good
Apple guidance a disappointment not good
corporate yields going up not good
the banking sector is going down massively (normally banks cut credit after )
chance of Global recession 2/3 according to the great A. Gary Shilling

Giving is living. If you stop wanting to give, there’s nothing more to live for.

Audrey Hepburn

Someone send me this card and it captures my wish list for 2019 , Health, Friends & Family, be more in contact with nature and i would add a bit of money. when you have no money you only think about it and that is not good. Happy 2019 to you.

I am going to change my life a bit in 2019 since i am leaving BPI on February 1, after 30 years. It has been a wonderful time for me and for the Bank during this 30 years. I have done many things and met wonderful people.

I am not sure what i am going to do but my inclination is to set up my own business.