Climate Change

 “How did you convince the German people to accept all of this?"

Göring: “It was easy & has nothing to do with Nazism. The only thing you need to do to enslave people is to put fear in them. If you can think of a way to scare people, you can do anything to them."




Experts are no experts

 In many fields, people who are widely accepted as "experts" are actually not expert performers when judged by objective criteria.

Anders Ericsson

In a famous California wine tasting competition the experts are given 30 wines to taste each member of the Jury. Robert Hodgson run an experiment and 3 glasses of the same wine were given to each. All gave different grades some of them gave the same wine from the same bottle 91, 87 and 87 points. No one was consistent.


If you are a brain surgeon or a plumber you are an expert otherwise disaster occurs immediately , if you are an expert economist, analyst, wine expert, phycologist (yes no different results from anyone without training)  you can be an expert forever. Easy life. 

Inflation is like toothpaste..........

 

I am a no inflation guy as you know. I believe that there is a spare capacity in the world, too much of everything, if there is no impediment to commerce forget long lasting inflation. This graph is a trade not a long term trend.

Of course if there is a change in the psych of people this guy (below) might have the day. Today the mindset is next year it will be cheaper. I don't think it will change.

As Karl Otto Pohl, Bundesbank boss in the 1980s, put it: “Inflation is like toothpaste. Once it’s out of the tube, you can’t put it back.”





Nuclear is not perfect


🇫🇷

French finance minister le Maire: we cannot do without nuclear energy in France




“I can’t fix my life. But I can fix the world,” said the socialist.

No one is a communist in a communist country ! 




If something is not working , let's double down !

If the lockdowns are not working it's because we didn't do enough let's double down

If wind and Solar are a disappointment let's do more 

The world is in this path but the Chinese are not, they will have cheap energy & clean. Let's see if having cheap energy is a game changer. 



From Leigh Goehring

Any serious proposal to reduce the carbon intensity of energy needs to have several characteristics. It must be:

  • Very energy efficient as measured by EROEI
  • Able to supply baseload power and avoid intermittency
  • Scalable to meet ongoing global energy demand growth
  • Low-carbon or carbon-free.

The only source that meets these criteria is nuclear fission.

 

A modern reactor generates electricity with an EROEI of nearly 100 compared with 30 for gas and 1–4 for renewable. As a result, only 1% of the generate electricity is consumed internally compared with 3% for gas and 25–60% for renewable energy.





I would never trust a guy like this

 This is obvious a lie but if it was true that he avoided his family for a year despite being in press conferences and meeting all over the place. Disgusting