One good Question

 

From Don Watkings

Which is the biggest career challenge? 1. Deciding what you want 2. Getting it


To me the first is the biggest Challenge. In fact I don't want nothing very big.



Wind &Solar

 Source :Mike Mills  Manhattan Institute 


In the video below Mike Mills makes the case that no transition is going to happen. The world will use everything . 


Second conclusion we will dig like never before. The electrification demands huge amounts of metals. Be a mining engineer (not a nice life but you will be one month at the mine 1 month home with a good pay)


Since no new mines are expected to be online soon probably electrification is going to be a rich thing.





Sorry No transition...



Do Nothing is a decent strategy

 

If you buy the 10 biggest stocks in 1957 and do nothing you would beat the S&P without the new thing. No technology, no Biotech, no IPO's  etc....

let that sink in!

why does it work? because you can have some companies that go to zero -100% like Bethlehem Steel and you can have companies that give you 12,000%. In this list we don't have Philip Morris that was the best stock ever in the S&P. 





Education

 


The market is the best predictor of ....





Trial and error is the best life strategy

 When you genuinely accept the risks, you will be at peace with any outcome.

— Mark Douglas

“It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.”
― Franklin D. Roosevelt, Looking Forward

“This is not a new idea; this is the idea of the age of reason. This is the philosophy that guided the men that made the democracy that we live under. The idea that no one really knew how to run a government led to the idea that we should arrange a system by which new ideas could be developed, tried out, and tossed out if necessary, with more new ideas brought in—a trial and error system.”
― Richard P. Feynman, What Do You Care What Other People Think?



If you have a stop loss you can do anything. the stop loss is more important than the signal. You can do whatever you want in life. You can live with whoever you want, buy houses, stocks Funds, coins, cryptos, paints etc...

Of course if there are big transaction costs that is less desirable but it works all the same.

Trial and error is the best life strategy

not trying is dumb.

Trying and not execute the strategy or giving up before you see the results is equally dumb.







Fossil Future or ...

 Fossil Future or a different Future 

Levels of energy consumption are tightly correlated with standard of living. The importance of cheap, abundant, reliable energy cannot be understated