If the dollar does the unthinkable and begins to collapse we might get the bottom in stocks today or tomorrow.

If you are an investor sit tight, if you are a short term trader stay out for now we are still in a danger zone

  • From Gavekal, Will Denyer
  • Despite relatively dovish comments from the Federal Reserve about the future trajectory of interest rates, US equities fell further on Wednesday. The S&P 500 has now fallen -14% since early October to hit a 15-month low. Meanwhile, 10-year treasury prices have risen almost 5%. Momentum traders will therefore find good reason to shun equities and add exposure to long-dated treasuries. We suggest doing the opposite.

I know markets don't look good now but there are small changes, EURUSD is trading at 1,1465 now. that is a big change. when USD is falling normally is bullish to everything. Bitcoin is starting to move. I think all the markets will follow to the upside.

when? i don't know we might get more pain with stop losses in the short term but if USD starts rolling down everything will go up sooner or later. I feel a bit stupid now and usually that is a sign of a bottom.
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Today might be an up day

From Sentimentrader:
During the past 3 sessions, the number of 52-week
highs on the NYSE have made up fewer than 1.25% of new highs and
new lows. This kind of overwhelming push in new lows has been seen
on 41 days in the past 30 years. All 41 showed a higher return in the
S&P 500 over the next year, averaging 20.6%. On a medium-term time
frame, the only days with meaningful losses were 5 sessions in early
October 2008

Perhaps today the market just shots higher slowly and then faster or after the FED drop and very quickly reverse
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If you are a trader sell, if you are an investor sit tight

From the Great IBD

 The stock market autumn swoon got worse Monday after indexes undercut key levels on their charts, forcing investors to raise their defenses.
The Nasdaq composite undercut its Nov. 20 low, ending a once-promising rally. The Nasdaq closed 2.3% lower and slid further below 7000, around where support existed in late October and November. The S&P 500 lost 2.1% and tumbled below 2600, a floor that had held in the past.
With indexes falling below prior lows, IBD cut its outlook to "market in correction." This signals investors to move into cash as much as possible and as soon as possible.Reduce exposure by taking some profits. Most important, avoid buying stocks and sell any holding that falls 7% or 8% below the purchase price. Hold only the few stocks that are still outperforming and deserving of your confidence.



 From my long term investments i will sell zero. Most of my holdings are in my portfolio for years and are deeply in the green.

 From my trading account i am out of the market.! 
Here are the five most common mistakes fund investors make, according to O'Neil:
1. Failing to sit tight.
2. Worrying about a fund's management fee, its turnover rate, or the dividend it pays.
3. Being affected by news in the market when you're supposed to be investing for the long term.
4. Selling out during bad markets.
5. Being impatient and losing confidence too soon.
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one bad Idea

one bad idea , negative interest rates.

 if you have savings you receive zero for your savings. zero or negative

 what do you do when your savings earn zero, you spend less & less you don't want to consume your capital. You lay low 

 The European Banking Index is destroyed trading at 91 almost at all time lows

 is it possible to have a good economy with sick banks? 

The European Central Bank (ECB) pushed its deposit rate to minus 0.4 percent in April 2016: Since then, euro area banks must pay 0.4 percent per annum on their excess reserves held at ECB accounts. This, in turn, has far-reaching consequences. To start with, banks seek to evade this "penalty rate," especially by buying government bonds.
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Buy high and sell higher


To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is
imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we
understand the market's technical s. When we do, then, and only then, can we or

should we, trade.
Dennis Gartman

The action of the market says stay out for the moment. (USD strong)

 Many indicators say in 6 months the market should be higher, we must be near a bottom


 I am in the camp of buying high and sell higher i will wait. i don't need to pick a bottom, to buy low and sell higher it's difficult because i never know when it's low.


1.sentiment is not making new lows. Divergence




2.Smart Money confidence is high
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The Illusion


Since his election, Macron has raised more than eleven new taxes that have mostly fallen on this vulnerable population cohort.

 Charles Gave

I guess in Europe it does't matter where you vote you always get more taxes and more Government
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Nasdaq didn't make new low yesterday!


"Everything you’ve ever wanted is on the other side of fear."
George Addair


Yesterday we had a good reversal, it was a down day that turned up Green. Perhaps we rally until the FED next Wednesday. Yesterday the Nasdaq didn’t make new lows that is very bullish.

Have a great week
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