Thought of the Day

we are not in optimism , i see the bull market to live some more years

i know we are on the verge of a recession
i know
we might have a correction if it's a mild recession. In my view there are so bad news that the market is not at the top for sure
Elisabeth warren = communism
China trade war (Trump is right of course)
but despite all this i see signs of hope

advance decline line at a new high
we are in a trading range for 2 years
I spoke with a great Oncologist in Vancouver this weekend (perhaps one of the best in the world) There are breakthroughs in biotech it's not the future is the present , it's now. we will see an explosion in Pharma stocks because people don't like to die
Finally there are several signs that point the market to fall and it refuses to fall! To me this is bullish.
out the trading range for 2020

I took this graph from Twitter there is no source nothing!But if you see the dates in the bottom it must be true. The good old days were not good at all. The world is getting better by the day less wars, less hunger and living longer. People just got to get busy...

I spent this weekend in the US in a trading seminar . Someone smart told me something. Elisabeth Warren is weak and Americans don't vote in weak people, fragile and nervous.

I hope Elisabeth is not my follower after all

how QE works?

https://thoughtmeme.blogspot.com/2019/09/quantitative-easing-1-0-1.html

ahahah Loved this Novogratz video. It can go to USD 6,000 and then up to 30,000. That would be the normal.

we have plenty of bad news these days but despite that the marker refuses to sell off

lot of Bears

what to do?

i guess participate

i know that President Trump does not want to market to go up a lot now! He wants the market to go up big one year from now
I know that if Elisabeth Warren has the minimal chance to win the market will crash. Nothing worse than an communist for America
I know the market is to far from 200 day moving average so it's difficult to have a big up move

however i think the market can exit this consolidation zone for good, I am cautious starting to buy

There are some signals that suggest we are entering in a Recession. However the market is near all time highs. My view has always been that the falling market precipitates the recession and not the opposite. Fortunately we have a tool to tell us what the stock market is going to do. the stock market

yes the stock market is the best predictor of the stock market

Yes it looks a bit circular but there are signs than precede dangerous markets and those are not all present. As Charles Gave of Gave kal says the only thing you have to do is to find out if there are more fools or more money.

To me I still see more money than fools. Usually the marked sells off after the FOMC meeting and that did not happening. Let's give the market a chance. We are in range since jan 2018 perhaps after a difficult period we will get an easy period.

I am in NY and NY is not the world but

terrible traffic
i rented a city bike USD 12 a day and even with a bike i can not circulate in midtown
doesn't look like a recession
Supermarkets don't sell wine!
in restaurants wine is crazy expensive
GAP stores disappeared from midtown. No more toys shops too. Real estate too expensive to sell jeans
NY is different from Europe people have lunch during lunch time meetings. That is a very useful habit.
Full of events after hours with my hedge fund friends from NY.
beautiful city

I spend the day in a great Hedge fund conference in Stamford
at the end of the day i was invited by a friend for a boat sunset ride!
amazing

notes

the houses in the Connecticut water line are like palaces. i wonder who want to live there! not my wife!
In USA everything is old but works great (trains etc.....). newark airport is a mess but works
the price of a data card for the cell phone is USD 75 too much
spend 2 hours clearing border/passports
I tried the train to Penn station. better than the cab.
If you have nothing better to do read John Corey (Nelson DEmile_) novels the best ever.
I saw a friend that start Keto diet i could not recognize him (I need to be more radical)
Today i will have a day full of meetings in NY with sunshine . what else do i need.
I plan to rent city bikes to move around
I went to Whole Foods love it all.
Tomorrow i will report more