Innovation = Unemployment

Tuesday, December 31, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

We are being afflicted with a new disease of which some readers may not yet have heard the name, but of which they will hear a great deal in the years to come – namely, technological unemployment. This means unemployment due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.
John Maynard Keynes 1930

I just read the book Race Against the Machine, Brynjolfsson&McAfee (only 77 pages of easy reading) and they mention a story about the power of compounding . From the book:

The second concept relevant for understanding recent computing advances is closely related to Moore’s Law. It comes from an ancient story about math made relevant to the present age by the innovator and futurist Ray Kurzweil. In one version of the story, the inventor of the game of chess shows his creation to his country’s ruler. The emperor is so delighted by the game that he allows the inventor to name his own reward. The clever man asks for a quantity of rice to be determined as follows: one grain of rice is placed on the first square of the chessboard, two grains on the second, four on the third, and so on, with each square receiving twice as many grains as the previous.
The emperor agrees, thinking that this reward was too small. He eventually sees, however, that the constant doubling results in tremendously large numbers. The inventor winds up with 264 -1 grains of rice, or a pile bigger than Mount Everest. In some versions of the story the emperor is so displeased at being outsmarted that he beheads the inventor.

 In his 2000 book The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence, Kurzweil notes that the pile of rice is not that exceptional on the first half of the chessboard:
After thirty-two squares, the emperor had given the inventor about 4 billion grains of rice. That’s a reasonable quantity—about one large field’s worth—and the emperor did start to take notice.
But the emperor could still remain an emperor. And the inventor could still retain his
head. It was as they headed into the second half of the chessboard that at least one of
them got into trouble.

 Well we might be getting on the second half of the chess board. I see the machines replacing man in almost all tasks with a big advantage. They don't strike, they don't get bored and they accumulate thousands of years of experience & knowledge. Man on the other hand takes 20 years of studying just to get up to date to what is already known of basic knowledge. I see machines doing much better medical diagnosis, etc...

what to do? invest in the machine factory and study programming

more on the same subject

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/11/just-execution-unemployment.html




Read More

0 comentários:

How to be in Shape easy!

Friday, December 20, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Do Intervals (Small periods of intense effort once or twice a week)
Q: What is a healthy resting heart rate, and how can I get mine down?
A: The normal range is between 60 to 80 beats per minute (BPM). An athlete could be 40 to 60 BPM. Consult your doctor if your resting heart rate is consistently above 100 BPM. The best way to improve your resting heart rate is with exercise. Start off slow and work up to interval training, in which you run hard, then slow down, and repeat for a specified amount of time or repetitions, once or twice a week.


Intervals strengthen your heart, allowing it to recovery faster, so your heart rate drops safely after intense exercise and stays lower when you're at rest.



I am now at 52 BPM while typing this blog. This means i am not in perfect shape. Last year before race season starts i had a 44 BPM at rest.

The most interesting graph i have seen is one that compares someone that have a resting HR of 60 and on the days they do a peak intervals of 170 during 1 minute (3 x) after the workout is finished  the resting HR goes down to 55.

That is powerful ! Do it, get out of your normal effort zone once or twice a week. The results are amazing.
Read More

0 comentários:

My 5 top Pics from last month

Tuesday, December 17, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

1.Subdue your appetites, my dears, and you've conquered human nature  

 Charles Dickens

 2.If you commit to nothing, you’re distracted by everything

 James Clear

 3.When you think everything is someone else's fault you will suffer a lot

 Dalai Lama

 4.When I was a young man, I wanted to be three things: I wanted to be the world’s greatest horseman, the world’s greatest economist, and the world’s greatest lover. Unfortunately I never became the world’s greatest horseman.

 Joseph A. Schumpeter

 5.It isn't what you have, or who you are, or where you are, or what you are doing that makes you happy or unhappy. It is what you think about

 Dale Carnegie

 One more,

6.The smart money always loses money shorting bubbles because they cannot comprehend that it could go as high as it does

 - Jim Rogers

I like them all but the Dalai Lama quote is very important. If you blame you will be miserable.





Read More

0 comentários:

This is not going to happen!

Tuesday, December 17, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-16/chart-day-what-generational-theft-looks


I don't think this is going to happen for the simple reason that people will move their business if they feel they are being robbed by the government. Of course Government can rob the middle class forever but the big Sharks will pay taxes somewhere else.

I see a future where government prints money and gives money to almost everybody. Net net the future generation is going to be a net receiver as the previous generations. The debt is going to go up steadily. There is not work for everybody and the State has got to support a big part of the population. Automation&Robotisation is killing thousand of jobs a day.

I have posted in the past about this 




Read More

0 comentários:

How not to beat Amazon

Monday, December 16, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

In his first major presentation to analysts, Mr. Joly coolly analyzed Best Buy’s strengths and weaknesses — which included the perception that Best Buy was not the low-price leader. In one survey, only 23 percent of respondents thought Best Buy’s prices were “lower than others,” far behind Walmart (71 percent), Amazon (56 percent) and Target (38 percent). The result was that many shoppers were browsing in a Best Buy store, using their phones to compare prices and then ordering online from a competitor.
Like many ideas that seem brilliant in hindsight, “the strategy is very simple,” Mr. Joly said in 2012, soon after he took the job. “We believe that price-competitiveness is table stakes. The way we want to win is around the advice, convenience, service.”
By matching the lowest price and enhancing service, he was determined to make sure that a customer who came to Best Buy as a showroom had no reason to buy anywhere else.

Mr. Strasser attended a conference where Mr. Joly spoke. “It jumped out at me,” Mr. Strasser said, “that the most important thing they said was, ‘If we get someone in the store and they don’t buy, then shame on us. If we get them in the store, they’re going to buy.’ ” 


The idea is that Best Buy can match the price of Amazon and offer a better service so people go to the shops that are located at prime locations, get premium advice and pay low end prices as in Amazon. Is this going to fly? I don't think so.

First the advice i get from a seller on best buy is not independent. Second i don't believe all employees of Best Buy know a lot about the multitude of products. The advice i get from thousands of buyers/shoppers on the Amazon website is much more useful. I don't think Best Buy has a chance. Perhaps when people shop for jewelry or watches that you like to try eventually they will win over the Amazons.

The idea that you get the best advice from a sales rep than from thousand of previous buyers is a myth. Best Buy is a short to me. When i don't know but is a short and it will go to zero!

 How to beat Amazon? Perhaps if you cater for non experts (me) and you go to your customer home and you help the client to set up the device/TV/Video etc.... But in this case they have to charge a lot




Read More

0 comentários:

Small Wins

Monday, December 16, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

TAGS:

On a blustery October day in 1987, a herd of prominent Wall Street investors and stock analysts gathered in the ballroom of a posh Manhattan hotel. They were there to meet the new CEO of the Aluminum Company of America -- or Alcoa, as it was known -- a corporation that, for nearly a century, had manufactured everything from the foil that wraps Hershey's Kisses and the metal in Coca Cola cans to the bolts that hold satellites together.
A few minutes before noon, the new chief executive, Paul O'Neill, took the stage. He looked dignified, solid, confident. Like a chief executive.
Then he opened his mouth.
"I want to talk to you about worker safety," he said. "Every year, numerous Alcoa workers are injured so badly that they miss a day of work.
"I intend to make Alcoa the safest company in America. I intend to go for zero injuries."
The audience was confused. Usually, new CEOs talked about profit margins, new markets and 'synergy' or 'co-opetition.' But O'Neill hadn't said anything about profits. He didn't mention any business buzzwords.
Eventually, someone raised a hand and asked about inventories in the aerospace division. Another asked about the company's capital ratios.
"I'm not certain you heard me," O'Neill said. "If you want to understand how Alcoa is doing, you need to look at our workplace safety figures." Profits, he said, didn't matter as much as safety.
The investors in the room almost stampeded out the doors when the presentation ended. One jogged to the lobby, found a pay phone, and called his 20 largest clients.
"I said, 'The board put a crazy hippie in charge and he's going to kill the company,'" that investor told me. "I ordered them to sell their stock immediately, before everyone else in the room started calling their clients and telling them the same thing.
"It was literally the worst piece of advice I gave in my entire career," he said.

Within a year of O'Neill's speech, Alcoa's profits would hit a record high. By the time O'Neill retired in 2000 to become Treasury Secretary, the company's annual net income was five times larger than before he arrived, and its market capitalization had risen by $27 billion. Someone who invested a million dollars in Alcoa on the day O'Neill was hired would have earned another million dollars in dividends while he headed the company, and the value of their stock would be five times bigger when he left.



The idea behind this book (i am not finished yet) is that if you change something in your life, one habit one process one routine it can have some powerful side effects. If people have small wins doing something that is not so important they might get use to win and start wining in more important stuff. Apparently Mayor Giuliani "broken window" theory of government is something like that. If you eradicate Graffiti there is a big fall in all criminality as a side effect. I guess the message is start somewhere and don't fail on that. 





Read More

1 comentários:

Korea has the most unhappy kids in the World

Wednesday, December 04, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:










It’s no secret that many Korean students are miserable, especially in high school, as  they prepare for the highly competitive College Scholastic Ability Test, which determines entry into college. (The most prestigious are the elite SKY schools: Seoul National, Korea, and Yonsei universities. Attendance at these schools confer large advantages on graduates once they hit the labor market.)
Compounding the stress are expectations from Korean parents, which are some of the highest in the world, according to the OECD. (From Quatrz)

http://qz.com/153380/korea-is-the-worlds-top-producer-of-unhappy-school-children/

Parents expect too much of their children in Korea, i see from the chart above that my country Portugal is also not well placed. What is the point of everybody to want their children to be a boss/Top of the pyramid? In a Company as well  a boat crew there is only 1 Captain, some officers and the rest are seaman Lot's of seaman. What is the point of putting all the children to study to be a Captain? There are only so many places for Captain post. What would happen to the thousand of children that have a captain degree but can only be a seaman? Our society is designed for disappointment.




Read More

0 comentários:

Why do PMI's matter?

Tuesday, December 03, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:





http://blog.yardeni.com/2013/12/manufacturing-boom-excerpt.html


Well it looks like US equity market is expensive but revenues are going to grow a bit (PMI's up = Rev up) However if top line (Revenues) & the economy recover it's possible that the FED trims a bit of QE! What to do?

Since we are in the good period for the market i think it's fair to stay the course until the FED moves. When he does move all the bet's are off.
Read More

0 comentários:

Greatness is not cheap

Tuesday, December 03, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

A great business at a fair price is superior to a fair business at a great price.

 Charlie Munger
PS This is very true, it's easier to make money buying something expensive that turns even more expensive than to buy something cheap that recovers. Unfortunately Unique has a price. This is a general rule that has exceptions, but i believe is a good general rule.

Read More

0 comentários:

Don't visit the doctor

Monday, December 02, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

oecd3


If you take a look at this graph & the previous post about life expectancy it looks like you don't live longer if you go very often to the doctor. I try hard not to go. I see in this graph that the average of most countries is between 5 and 8 visits per year. This year i had to do a check up but that was it. I hope to stay like this.
Read More

0 comentários:

Money can buy some years of life but after the basic needs are ......

Monday, December 02, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:




It looks like after some basic needs are met you can not extend life expectancy by spending more money. The US looks like a waste of money.




Read More

0 comentários:

Europe in Deflation!

Monday, December 02, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

1.OECD's chief economist, Pier Carlo Padoan, said that the Eurozone deflationary risks "may be slowly increasing" and "the ECB must be very careful and be prepared to use even non-conventional measures to beat any risk of deflation becoming permanent.

2.Europe is very weak. ECB is Contemplating a a new LTRO- with a twist. 



Nothing new here, as i have mentioned in several posts in the past the problem with the world is excess capacity/overproduction. When that is the case we have deflation, people try to lure customers with the lower price. The only companies that can do well in this environment are?

1.Brands
2.Companies that help to cut costs (Automation & Robotisation)
3.Monopolies

What to do? Invest your money in the Robot factory or in the Bigger get Bigger theme.

 See this link about the same subject

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/11/brands-monopolies.html
Read More

0 comentários:

What is the problem with Emerging markets?

Wednesday, November 27, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

I have come across this kind of graph many times


what is the obvious conclusion here? If EM have 80% of global population, land mass, etc... GDP is below average they will have more growth than Developed markets going forward. I can accept this. However if EM people want to buy I-Phones, Coke, BMW's  i don't think EM stock market's will do much better than DM?

 Eventually some local consumption plays will do well.

 As the people who follow my blog already know , BIG Get Bigger is the big trend in the world and the big companies are not in EM, yet. Stick with DM equities.


Read More

0 comentários:

Long Inovation

Wednesday, November 27, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Druckenmiller described Google Inc. as the most “innovative company on the planet,” citing the company’s web-enabled eyeglasses and self-driving cars. He said investors who want to bet on innovation should buy shares of Google and those who want to bet against innovation should buy IBM shares.

 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-22/druckenmiller-shorting-ibm-in-bet-cloud-computing-to-win.html
This is a very interesting interview and besides the Nikkei theme (min 6.40) he clearly cites the case for the new monopolies. Amazon & Google. I have posted several times in the last year about 2 themes

 Here http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/11/brands-monopolies.html

 a)Big get Bigger
b)Monopolies 
Well there is no doubt that some companies are going to win big, because of economies of scale, because of brand & because of R&D & Marketing dollars/budget. On top of this a lot of people love to buy the number 1 player which is a low risk option. If the number 1 can even provide a better service......

These companies, Google, Facebook, Priceline, Amazon, are going to win but are already very expensive. What to do?

 The smart money always loses money shorting bubbles because they cannot comprehend that it could go as high as it does
- Jim Rogers






Read More

0 comentários:

Not me i don't want to be poor!

Tuesday, November 26, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

I don't agree with the Pope about economics


In this context, some people continue to defend trickle-down theories which assume that economic growth, encouraged by a free market, will inevitably succeed in bringing about greater justice and inclusiveness in the world. This opinion, which has never been confirmed by the facts, expresses a crude and naïve trust in the goodness of those wielding economic power and in the sacralized workings of the prevailing economic system. Meanwhile, the excluded are still waiting. To sustain a lifestyle which excludes others, or to sustain enthusiasm for that selfish ideal, a globalization of indifference has developed. Almost without being aware of it, we end up being incapable of feeling compassion at the outcry of the poor, weeping for other people’s pain, and feeling a need to help them, as though all this were someone else’s responsibility and not our own.



APOSTOLIC EXHORTATION
EVANGELII GAUDIUM


The Pope speaks about a world that is not real

1.It's not true that the market's are "Unfettered" (not restricted). Regulation and the hand of the Goverment/Regulators has never been greater. There are rules for everything. The economy is paralyzed.
2.It's not true that the poor are worse when living close to very rich people.
3.Growth and improvement for the poor has a cost, some people get insanely rich. It has always been like that.
4.All the people that tried to impose a world without differences has created a tyranny.
5.The poor live much better in countries where there is free markets, the ones that create very rich people. I am sorry Pope Francis but this is the true.

What Pope Francis proposes is poverty for everybody


He chose to be called "Francis" after the Italian saint of the same name famed for choosing a life of poverty.

Not me i don't want to be poor

 some posts about this subject http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/10/equal-but-hungry.html










Read More

0 comentários:

Soon Government will give money away ......

Monday, November 25, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:


The table below shows how only those with incomes over $500,000 a year have benefited from QE. And the rich don’t spend, they save. The policy of getting money directly into the hands of the people who need it and who will spend it would be immensely popular politically. In other words, a tax cut for low-and-middle income tax payers, which is financed by selling government debt directly to the central bank.

13D Research, Kiril Sokoloff







Well i have written about this often. The worker's are being squeezed by the automation/Robotization process. Low & middle classes when they have money they spend. The rich when they get more money they save. The world has a demand problem, there is plenty of supply of everything but no demand.  One day  politicians will print and distribute a monthly check to everybody. Unfortunately that day is coming. I don't agree with this because earth cannot stand so much production/consumption. The option has to be produce less & consume less. people will have to live with less stuff. It's going to be a shock when people figure out that they are not necessary in the production process.....


Read More

0 comentários:

Brands & Monopolies

Wednesday, November 20, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

There is excess supply of almost everything in the world. The only thing that i remeber from my Economics degree is Supply & Demand, and when supply is bigger than demand prices fall.
 
we can see that inflation in the Euro zone ( It's similar almost everywhere) in approaching zero! Of course if average inflation is approaching zero there are some parts of Europe already in deflation and other parts with a bit of it.
 
Governments in the last 10 years everywhere are running big deficits to make up for this Supply/Demand imbalance. But this intervention has some limits, when accumulated Government debts to GDP approach some high levels sometimes lenders don't lend anymore (Greece, etc...)


Since Governments can not keep spending to make up for this Supply/Demand imbalance central banks ( The FED in United States, BCE in Europe, and BOJ in Japan) are trying their best to awake the animal spirits and improve the willingness to spend all over. They do this through buying some securities in the markets and hope people who sell securities to them to spend or lend the money they get.
 
What they achieved is a big rally in stocks everywhere. Who has bennefit from QE. I guess the people who own stocks the rich people of the world. The workers are in a desperate situation where what they do is becoming redundant because of excess supply & automation.
 
This graph can give you as idea of who is doing well. Luxury Brands vs Retail for the middle classes.

Source :JPM

This graph in my view shows that in a world with excess supply you can fight with a lower price (Macy's, Kohl's or JCPenny) or you can have a brand. 

In the world we live on to have a brand it's a big plus because people want to buy what you produce for what it represents. What you do is still scarce in a oversupply of everything.
 
If i have to bet on what is going to happen, my bet goes like this, weak economy, keep the stimulus on, markets keep going up.
 
In this environment who can prosper? I think the Brands and the Monopolies. 


 
Read More

0 comentários:

Get a Job, son!

Wednesday, November 20, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Youngsters have got to stop thinking about becoming the next Zuckerberg. It's a trillion-to-one chance. What they need is mater and pater to say, 'Get a job, son.'
Alan Sugar 

The idea to study until you are well into the 30's taking a degree and post Degree is not a good idea anymore in my view.

1.First you make almost no money until you are into the 30's
2.You might get into debt
3.When you try to get a job sometimes people don't like candidates that have done nothing but studying until this age
4.If you get a very good job it's possible that you go to the highest IRS bracket paying up to 50% or 60% (In Portugal that is the case) of your income while you are still paying your debts.
5.Sometimes you study to be able to land your first job. If you can get a job do it asap and study while you are working.
6.Do sports all your life. You meet new people and people who are busy can do more things. Nothing is worse for the productivity than to have spare time.
7.If you start working in your early 20's (I got my first part time job at 16 and i work in BPI since i am 21, 26 years ago!) you make more money because you earn less and pay less taxes.
8.If you start saving a bit of money in your early 20's instead of early 40's it makes a big difference. Saving USD 1,000 for 40 years until you are 60 makes 95,000 USd at 4%  IRR. Saving USD 2,000 for 20 years at 4% makes 59,000 when you get to  60. You save the same amount but the result is very different.
9.When you are not used for 35 years to take an order to have a boss and to fight for a position, you are going to struggle a bit in a job.
10.When you are full of diplomas you might get the idea that you should only get a job in your area of study/degree and  that narrows your job possibilities.
11.There is a big income polarization but i think it's between shareholders/owner's of companies vs workers in general. Worker's vs workers i think the dispersion is getting narrower, perhaps there is still a difference between software/automation workers vs all the rest. The dispersion Worker vs Worker is smaller because of igualization policies, tax the ones that are doing well.
12.When you are in the 20's you can bear anything and do anything.

All in all i think Alan Sugar is right, just get any kind of job, study while working and do sports. 

Don't study to land the perfect job, it's not worth it anymore.



Read More

0 comentários:

stayin’ home

Monday, November 18, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

American kids are stayin’ home these days. We knew that from anecdotes but now we know it given the hard data from the Census Bureau.
Unable to find jobs commensurate with their educations,college graduates are becoming what some are now calling “Generation Wait” and are bunking down with parents, or are joining up with friends in small apartments and condominiums, but clearly they are not out forming new housing units on their own.
They are delaying careers; they are certainly delaying marriages and they are delaying having children. We know this because the census bureau has reported that a historically low 23.3% of those Americans between the ages of 25-29 moved in the twelve months ending in March of this year. That is down from 24.6% the year previous and it is the lowest level since ’63! Indeed, the trend has been down since ’65 when a record 36.7% of those between those ages then moved. Generation Wait… that is precisely what is happening; they are waiting… and waiting and waiting… and….

Dennis Gartman from TGL one of the besd daily newsletters

It's not the 2008 Financial crisis, it's not the Banks fault, it's not the lack of regulation, it's not China, it's not the politicians the true is that the world doesn't need everybody to produce everything. Automation, mechanization, etc... make a lot of people expendable/without normal jobs. 
A person operating a machine can produce for 10,000 people. We are inventing new necessities/needs that didn't exist some years ago but many are very tech intensive and low labor intensive. (New games & apps ).

What to do?

1.Participate in the automation movement, became a programmer of software engineer. Make good money
2.Do something manual that cannot be done by a machine. Barber, therapist, personal trainer,  chef, bike mechanic, etc....  make little money
3.Invest in the Robotization/Automation. Participate and profit from it. If you are going to be replaced by a machine be a shareholder of the machine company
4.Be nice. There will always be demand for the personal touch.
5.Travel a lot cheaply and observe/learn.
6.Read the classics, nothing changes.
7.Don't let other people serve you, it's too expensive. Serve & charge for it, let others pay.
8.Be a regulator or police officer, there is a bull market for Government everywhere. If you like it (Not me) do it.
9.Do sports & meet lot's people


What not to do

1.Get into debt to take a useless diploma
2.Tell your kids that if they are good students they made it. It's not enough. That is why kids are staying home with their parents.





Read More

0 comentários:

Small is Not Always Beautiful

Friday, November 15, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:


Apple & Samsung take massive 109% of mobile industry profits while competitors lose money


The mobile market continues to be a two-horse race for profitability between Apple and Samsung, with the two rivals commanding 109 percent of profits — a number made possible because its competitors are actually losing money in the smartphone space.



Bigger get bigger is the strongest trend in business these days. Of course in this space many times the leader (SONY, NOKIA) get's destroyed by a new product/trend. In other sectors the nº1 position is much more resilient. However the point is that all the money is made by the nº1 or nº2,  and that is almost a Universal rule. Better to be big than good. 




Read More

0 comentários:

Pay People for Being Alive

Friday, November 15, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

This fall, a truck dumped eight million coins outside the Parliament building in Bern, one for every Swiss citizen. It was a publicity stunt for advocates of an audacious social policy that just might become reality in the tiny, rich country. Along with the coins, activists delivered 125,000 signatures — enough to trigger a Swiss public referendum, this time on providing a monthly income to every citizen, no strings attached. Every month, every STwiss person would receive a check from the government, no matter how rich or poor, how hardworking or lazy, how old or young. Poverty would disappear. Economists, needless to say, are sharply divided on what would reappear in its place — and whether such a basic-income scheme might have some appeal for other, less socialist countries too. 


Well the problem of the world is lack of demand is not lack of supply. That means there is overcapacity in almost everything. Deflation is the word. What to do? QE is a very clumsy tool because it helps the rich people (who own shares) to much vs the working class. This proposal would be considered foolish some years ago but today i think it's a possibility (My Colleague Rui Martins Santos has proposed in the past a monthly check to people above 60, no strings attached) 
However i don't think we should do it and the reason is the environment. If we give incentive to consume more stuff, people will build even more stuff and we will have to keep doing it. Mother earth can not stand so much resource depletion. I think the way for the world is to live with less, to throw less food away, to forbid private cars in the center of a city, to ride bicycles, etc.....We need to cause less impact on the planet and we can't subsidized even more consumption.


Read More

0 comentários:

Big blue will win most of the times

Wednesday, November 13, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Perhaps nowhere is this more visible than in the recent strategy of smoothie retailer Jamba Juice, which in order to battle a 4% drop in Q3 same store sales has decided to radically transform its entire retailing strategy by getting rid of labor, cheap, part-time or otherwise, altogether. Presenting the biggest threat to minimum-wage restaurant workers everywhere: the JambaGo self-serve machine that just made the vast majority of Jamba's employees obsolete. Coming soon to a fast-food retailer near you.



Well nothing new here. Almost everywhere slowly but surly we see automation & robotisation. Labor is a cost and if you want to survive you have to lower the costs. It's difficult to figure out a world where unemployment is not growing everywhere. In this kind of world taxes must be very high on the ones that have a job to sustain the ones that are at home doing nothing or studying things that are useless. Another solution was to tax automation and subsidizing hiring people but that has not been the trend.

Perhaps a good solution would be to lower the corporate tax with the number of people the corporation employs. Without an incentive Big Blue will almost always win vs man



Read More

0 comentários:

My Top 5 Picks from last month

Tuesday, November 12, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

1.When making a decision of minor importance, I have always found it advantageous to consider all the pros and cons. In vital maters however…the decision should come from the unconscious, from somewhere within.
Sigmund Freud

2.There is no reality, only perception.
Dr Phil

3.Never tell your problems to anyone. 20% don't care, and the other 80% are glad you have them
Lou Holtz

4.When people are free to do as they please, they usually imitate each other.
 Eric Hoffer
(1902 - 1983) 

5.All the tools in the world are meaningless without an essential idea
George Lois, Mad Man

and one more..........................

6.You are either putting weight or loosing, it's impossible to stay stable.

Me, Francisco Magalhaes Carneiro




Read More

0 comentários:

Just execution = Unemployment

Tuesday, November 12, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Here’s the concept, as explained to me by Briggo CEO Kevin Nater: “There’s this unbelievably beautiful supply chain for coffee,” he says, from the way the beans are painstakingly cultivated and harvested in countries like Honduras to the way they’re packed and shipped and roasted to perfection—“and then, at the last step, when you’ve spent all this time and money trying to make the perfect product, there’s a person brewing the coffee. And that has the potential to really just kill the customer experience. So why not automate it?”................................................................

 The Briggo machine may never be able to replicate the full, sit-down, Central Perk experience, but then again that’s not what every Starbucks customer is looking for. Starbucks is so successful because it dominates the market for two types of customers: those who want a place to sit down and chat with friends or get some work done, and those who just want a quick, reliable caffeine jolt on their way to work. It’s the latter market that might ultimately be better-served by a Briggo, or something like it. And that’s a very, very big market.


Slowly but surely all the jobs that are just execution are going to be replaced with machines. If you are not nice, talk to your customer, etc... you can be replaced. Be nice, be very nice or unemployed.


Read More

0 comentários:

After a new high we probably will have another new high

Monday, November 11, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Companies are racing to issue stock and bonds because markets are high, offering great prices for sellers, said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, which oversees more than $950 million in Washington, D.C.. Issuers are grabbing current terms before markets fade. That makes experienced investors ask themselves a classic question: If the smart money is selling, should we be buying?

 http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/11/10/flurry-of-stock-bond-issuance-is-a-danger-sign-for-markets/
This plus this graph from John P. Hussman, Ph.D. What to say? SELL ? No way i think after a new high we will probably will have another new high. Even if the next 10 years are not going to be great i think the next year could be very ok? Why? because when the markets are at new highs nobody is loosing money (Except the shorts & skeptics)  and the i see more pressure from people in the sidelines to buy than people that are in to exit. When is the ideal time to sell? after a big correction has started, you have to lose some 10% to 15 % and let some time pass before cutting. 



Read More

0 comentários:

Not pretty but effective

Monday, November 11, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Why, then, did weak teams play in a way that made it easy for good teams to do the very things that made them so good?

Read more: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/05/11/090511fa_fact_gladwell?printable=true&currentPage=all#ixzz2kKNXz1q9

This is a long article about how David can beat Goliath but with a caveat. David can not play the game by traditional/Goliath rules. If he does even with a top rate attitude usually he loses. What David can do is to play in a different way a way that put's David & Goliath at the same level.

How can that be? Well i don't have time to train properly for my bike (i can train up to 8 hours a week). So what i do is to focus on something i can do and it makes a big difference in Endurance sports.  Nutrition. I am a almost 100% Veggan and that has made a big difference. 

In another situation many years ago i was racing in a Canoe race in river Mondego representing BPI with Rui Nápoles my partner in the boat. We were in 3rd place with the finish line in view and the 2nd team some 10 meters ahead of us. The water was shallow (some 20 cm ) so i jumped out of the boat and pushed the back of the boat with my hands claiming the 2nd place in the race. Not pretty but effective.


Read More

0 comentários:

Just try to improve a bit..... and you will do well

Friday, November 08, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 2 Comments

TAGS:

"The only person you should try to be better than is the person you were yesterday." - Anonymous

This is the same idea as in the Book Mindset from Carol Dweck. This is a book that really can change your life. The idea behind the book is that in the fixed mindset, people believe their basic qualities like intelligence are fixed and either you have them or not. They spend time proving that they have it and they don't like to lose because it implies that you are not so smart aftar all.

In the growth mindset, people believe that you can grow all your basic abilities through dedication and hard work. In this frame of mind people love to learn, to try new things and in result they really improve. Almost all the big winners in history are in the growing mindset campus.

In the bike my approach has been to improve a bit from what i did in the previous season, and that has served me well. Either on the nutritional front or in the cardio front i just have to a bit better than last season. And is not easy at all. But it's enough for me to do very well.

Read More

2 comentários:

Adapt or die

Friday, November 01, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:




Read More

0 comentários:

Participate of course

Friday, November 01, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

TAGS:

It looks like the US market is getting expensive

 What do do when you see a bubble forming? Participate of course


Someone said it's easier to make money buying something expensive and that something get's more expensive that something cheaper to upgrade....
Read More

1 comentários:

Put the Marketing people in charge

Wednesday, October 30, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Chinese firms are robotizing their production lines in order to compete head-on with rivals on the basis of quality. The automation czar of Great Wall Motors, China’s biggest pickup truck maker, recently told us that a program to automate welding and spray painting for its new models was not a cost cutting exercise, but rather an effort to close the quality gap between its vehicles and those produced by the likes of Toyota and General Motors in China.

Yuchan Li, Gave Kal Research

If China starts competing on quality we (Europe&US) will have big problems because they still have  a big the cost advantage & if the quality perception is the same.....

What to do? Build a brand! Despite Lexus is as good as Mercedes or BMW no one in their right mind will buy a Lexus at similar prices. Why? because there is a perception that Mercedes or BMW are much better.

What is the name of that perception? it's a position that only Brands possess. So I strongly advice companies to hire a good marketing guy and put him/she in charge.

No Brand = No profit






Read More

0 comentários:

Something Unique.....

Monday, October 28, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Any company whose earnings are growing consistently – or more important, are likely to grow consistently – has something unique about it. The competition can read these earnings records too, and fat earnings records are an invitation to come in and steal the cream. So a company that has something unique about it has something the competition cannot latch onto right away. Whatever it is that is unique is a glass wall around those profit margins.
The Money Game, Adam Smith

Well the best way to make money is to have no competition. When you have competition you can't make serious money.  How to have barriers to entry or something Unique?

1.To be big. To be the nº1 in an Industry is a very good position to be in. Most clients want to know who sells more before they buy. Consolidate, buy your competitor if you can.

2.To have some cost advantage that the others don't have! Location, resources, it costs a lot to change providers.

3.To have a Brand. People trust your Brand and are willing to pay 5 for something that the competition sells for 2!

4.To have a regulation that prevents the entry of new players






Read More

0 comentários:

Team sports are the best to get a job!

Monday, October 28, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

How does participation in different types of sport affect the earnings and employment of the working-age population? 

 Are these effects for the different types of sports heterogeneous with respect to genders and age?

 These 2 Questions are answered in the following paper

 http://www1.vwa.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/econwp/EWP-1325.pdf

Conclusion:
.... the results indicate large positive associations of sports participation with earnings, which are largest for fitness and outdoor sports. Furthermore, there is a negative relation with unemployment, particularly for males, which goes together with higher employment rates for younger males and higher retirement rates for older males. Comparing the different sports against each other shows that participation in team sports is more associated with increased employability (but that this varies by age and gender) and that fitness and outdoor activities have higher associations with income.


This doesn't surprise me at all, why it's easier to get a job if you play team sports?

1.You are used to have a role in the team. You do your part, you wait for your time to act. This is Teamwork. (To play in an Orchestra is the same)
2.You are used to lose and next week it's another game! It is never the end...There is always the next game.
3.In a team there is a boss, in companies is the same
4.You make a lot's of friends (networking)
5.If you do serious sports you are used to get the best of your day, you study, you attend school and you train. People who do sports do more!
6.You get a course in Psychology while playing games.You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation. Plato.
7.You understand the power of effort and hard training  In sports you figure out that the person who works more usually wins.
8.You are healthier,  and companies like to hire healthy people.

Read More

0 comentários:

Best Graph Ever

Monday, October 28, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Conclusion: People love to conform/to belong/to copy/ to follow

 Why on earth people in almost all the states in America in 1961 choose the name David and 4 years later in 1965 everybody chooses Michael? And why most of the western states choose the same name every year!

 Take from this: It's easier to sell to a prospect in the places where you already do business than to open a new front.

http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-popular-boys-names-since-1960-in-1-spectacular-gif-2013-10

Boys Names Maps

Read More

0 comentários:

It's better to live alongside rich people !

Friday, October 25, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

If a country grows there is a natural tendency for income polarization. The Owners of the Companies & the knowledge workers make substantial more money than people that have standardized jobs (Jobs that are thousands of people who do the same thing).
The Kuznet's Curve has the same idea with the following rational (From Wikipedia)

 The Kuznets curve implies that as a nation undergoes industrialization – and especially the mechanization of agriculture – the center of the nation’s economy will shift to the cities. As capitalism causes a significant rural-urban inequality gap (the owners of firms would be profiting, while labourers from lagging industries and agriculture production would be losing income), rural populations are expected to decrease as urban populations increase, due to people migrating to cities in search of income. Inequality is then expected to decrease when a certain level of average income is reached and the processes of industrialization – democratization and the rise of the welfare state – allow for the trickle-down of the benefits from rapid growth, and increase the per capita income. This was Kuznets’ belief; that inequality would follow an inverted “U” shape as it rises and then falls again with the increase of income per capita.
I don't agree with the idea that as inequality decreases at all. My belief is this

For the whole group to get better some of the group will become much better. This is what i see. Every country that tried to promote egalitarian politics everybody get's worse in the end. Equal but hungry!

Read More

0 comentários:

Are you easily Replaceable ?

Tuesday, October 22, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

  • These days i think with automation on the rise the only people that are difficult to be replaced are the sellers/client people that have the relationships. Everybody on the production line are easily replaced by a colleague or a machine.

    From Dilbert.com October 18, 1993
Read More

0 comentários:

Lot's of experience is useless!

Sunday, October 20, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

TAGS:

To improve you have to exit your comfort zone!

In field after field, when it comes to centrally important skills—stockbrokers recommending stocks, parole officers predicting recidivism, college admissions officials judging applicants—people with lots of experience were no better at their jobs than those with less experience.

From Geoff Colvin, Talented is Overrated

What? well in this book the author claims 3 things, 1 The notion that you have to have ‘natural talent’ to excel at something is a myth. 2. Even if you practice many hours at something you improve a bit first but after an initial jump you reach a plateau and experience serves you nothing.3. if you want to get better you have to engage in deliberate practice (in my words Hard Training, not so pleasant ).

To improve at something, and anyone can improve if he/she want, it's Hard Work, you have to exit your comfort zone. You have to experiment, you have to do every week something that you have never done before. 

In my bike training i have to do a series at 185 bpm,  to change my diet radically, to lose serious weight, try a new drink,  drink only water in training, etc... i have exit the usual to improve. That is the key to move forward. To do over & over the same things doesn't get you very far.

 Exception: In sales i do believe that someone with 10,000 client meetings is really better than someone with 100 client meetings. In Sales you do get better with the number of interactions because each meeting is different.

http://www.amazon.com/Talent-Overrated-World-Class-Performers-EverybodyElse/dp/1591842948
Read More

1 comentários:

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)