Small is beautiful is a myth. Small is Dying is the reality.

Thursday, August 29, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The Index S&P crossed the 1700 points in the beginning of August for the first time ever. The Dow Jones which comprises the oldest Blue chips of America (Apple is not yet in the DOW) crossed 15,600 points for the first time ever on the first of August. Who else is at the all time high? The Dax Index from Germany. 

 Since these are the main indexes that are at the all time highs (Mexico is also doing ok but not at all time high) one could ask who are the main beneficiaries from Globalization/Regulation/Complication that we are experiencing in the last 20 years.

 I guess we could say the main beneficiaries are the biggest companies. The Bigger get bigger is the strongest trend of the last 20 years. 

 The Small is beautifull is a myth. Small is dying is the reality.

 To benefit from Globalization a company must be huge, because to do business all over the world companies need to pay regulators, local autorities, to pay huge fines (JPMorgan, Barclays, BPetroleum, etc….), to have an army of lawers, auditors and complience officers, to be able to be sued and clients believe that they will survive. To  be big is a great position to be.

 On top of all this to have a Global brand and to be able to advertise worldwilde is a huge advantage. The Internet is also a trend that is benefing the american companies, like facebook, Gooogle, Amazon, Booking.com, etc….

 If this is true how can we benefit from this trend?

 1.We don't need to buy emerging market funds to benefit from what is happening in EM. The Global players can capture part of what is happening there.
2.Buy the Leader's of each market segment.
3.Buy Global sell local
4.Buy big & sell middle & small players
5.Buy brands & sell commodities.

 We live in a world with excess supply in almost everything and the only players that have a bit of pricing power are the leaders, the brands and the nº1 in each industry. The Globalization is benefiting the L'Oreal, the BMW, the IBM, The Boeing Company, etc….

Globalization is a death sentence for the local player.
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Bigger get Bigger

Thursday, August 29, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Amazon.com Inc. sells more online than its next 12 biggest competitors combined, including Staples Inc. and Wal-Mart, according to the trade publication Internet Retailer.



Nothing new here, to be the biggest in one segment or market is the best position to be. Small is not beautiful, small is dying.
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A pause for a rest

Wednesday, August 28, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Why do we need a Constitution?

Tuesday, August 27, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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"The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized."
Fourth Amendment of the US Constitution  

In Mayor Bloomberg's New York City you can be strolling down the street minding your own business and be stopped for no reason whatsoever by police officers and made to assume the position as they grope about your body crevasses looking for contraband. (From The Room with David Galland).


I guess we need the constitution to protect the people from the government. But unfortunately the Governments everywhere in the world don't care about the constitution. Private liberties are severely curtailed.
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3 more pics from the Mountains in the North of Portugal

Monday, August 26, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Holidays in the Mountains

Monday, August 26, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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Just finished my summer holidays. This year i spent all my time in the mountains (Estrela and Minho/Gerês) with my kids. In the Mountains everything is cheap, there is no fog in the morning and almost no wind! It's different from the beach. All the nights are warm and we can look at the stars because there is almost no light. The rivers where we swim were so clean and cold that we could drink the water where we were swimming. Beautiful places but very difficult to make money there. Unfortunately it's impossible to make a living there. One must work in a big city  to make money and eventually take some time off to spend there. (i guess the winters should be difficult ....).



My 2 Boys, (Manuel and Vasco) in the highest mountain in Portugal, a bull in Gerês and me and my bike.




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Nothing is Nothing

Thursday, August 08, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Not everybody believes in this and are in business with nothing to offer! Some companies have an average product, with average marketing and average service. When there is excess demand even these people can survive. On Valentine's day every restaurant even the lousy ones are fully booked! Why? because on Valentine's day there is clearly excess demand for seats.

However in all the world there is excess supply of almost everything. So you have to have something to be able to survive. You have to have a difference, you have to know something, to claim some benefit difficult to copy, etc....

Nothing is Nothing.

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Skinny

Wednesday, August 07, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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70 kg (186 cm) at the End of TransPortugal after 9 days of Mountain Bike. After that i already put 9 kg!



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Not yet back to the Cave but...

Tuesday, August 06, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The county’s district attorney, a fifty-seven-year-old woman with feathered Charlie’s Angels hair named Lynda K. Russell, arrived an hour later. Russell, who moonlighted locally as a country singer, told Henderson and Boatright that they had two options. They could face felony charges for “money laundering” and “child endangerment,” in which case they would go to jail and their children would be handed over to foster care. Or they could sign over their cash to the city of Tenaha, and get back on the road. “No criminal charges shall be filed,” a waiver she drafted read, “and our children shall not be turned over to CPS,” or Child Protective Services.



Well no surprise here, in Europe is the same, almost everything you do is a crime. Therefore you are a criminal! therefore the cops offer you a bargain, either you pay and go free or.....

I guess Ayn Rand Altas Shrugged predicted almost everything we are getting in....

Not yet back to the Caves but...






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If you want to make money study History & Philosophy

Friday, August 02, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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If you want to make money study History & Philosophy instead of an MBA

minute 25


I can relate to this, an MBA has almost no value these days because in the USA there are 200,000 new MBA every year. Just looking at supply & demand the value of an MBA is going down. If you can get into Harvard i think is worth the money not because of what you learn but because of who you get to know. If you want to really improve and get a world view and to be able to figure out how to navigate this world i think History & Philosophy are good bets. Jim Rogers is right.
People who reach the top of the tree are only those who haven't got the qualifications to detain them at the bottom.
Peter UstinovEnglish actor & author (1921 - 2004)




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Sell to China but don't invest there!

Thursday, August 01, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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In China GDP is growing strongly in America GDP is almost stalled.

However S&P is doing very well but Shanghai Composite is a disaster!

why is this? I guess Globalization/internet/savvy clients/etc.... is very good for the biggest companies. If you put everybody competing on the same footing the biggest and best companies will get bigger.

And America has the biggest companies.

Bigger get Bigger is the key phrase these days



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A great teacher

Thursday, August 01, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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REHEDIÇÃO died last year. This was the horse that teach me most. gentle gentle, just a touch !
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