Statistically there is a 50% chance that the world will end in this century!

Monday, June 30, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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'all evils are caused by insufficient knowledge'

David Deutsch's 'Principle of Optimism' in The Beginning of Infinity

Born in Haifa, Israel, David Deutsch was educated at Cambridge and Oxford universities. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society and a professor of Physics at the University of Oxford, where he is a member of the Centre for Quantum Computation. His many honors include the Institute of Physics' Paul Dirac Prize and Medal. The author of The Fabric of Reality, he lives in England.

 I haven’t finish this book yet. Not easy for me. The theme of The Beginning of Infinity is how the search for hard-to-vary explanations is the source of all progress in science and in the rest of human affairs, and that this progress may continue indefinitely, since all problems are soluble if permitted by Physics. A Hard to vary explanation is one that if you change it a bit it doesn't work and is not an explanation anymore!


This is a very optimistic book. Statistically there is a 50% chance that the world will end in this century! Either by a meteorite hitting the earth, a plague, some new disease or some climate change. The only way to prevent that to happen is trough knowledge. The reason for the extinction of past civilizations was always been the lack of knowledge. This brings me to our current world where we have some companies (Google, Amazon, etc…) that are deeply into the finding of the new thing and many others that only want to survive. In order to do that they cut cost’s, outsourced, do share buy back’s etc…. 
The companies that are into the finding of new hard to vary explanations are the ones that are doing something for the world. We need new knowledge if we want to survive the next 100 years. Humans are capable of an infinite amount of progress. We can improve things without limit, and learn without limit. This covers not just material improvement but also moral improvement. We have to invest in knowledge non stop. 
The way to go is to study forever.

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Some good news at last!

Friday, June 27, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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"There is strong evidence from previous longitudinal studies that [drinking] a small amount of alcohol is associated with lower incidence of overall dementia and Alzheimer dementia," Professor Siegfried Weyerer, PhD, from the Central Institute of Mental Health in Mannheim, Germany, said.
"Unique in our study," he told Medscape Medical News, "is that this result was also found among a large population [75 years and older at baseline] where the mean age was, at 80.2 years, much higher than that in previous studies." The study was published online March 2 in Age and Ageing.




Well Alcohol can provoke some short term dementia (drunkenness) but not long term dementia. Like in the book Anti-fragile if you stress the system a bit it get's stronger not weaker. When you get a bit drunk often it strengthens the system.

 Could this be true?

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What do you do if you don’t know what you want?

Friday, June 27, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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There is one quality which one must possess to win, and that is definiteness of purpose, the knowledge of what one wants, and a burning desire to possess it.
—  Napoleon Hill

A similar quote that I sent in 2006 is:

The secret of success is constancy of purpose.
Benjamin Disraeli
British politician (1804 - 1881)  
I guess it’s a bit the same idea. If you don’t know what you want you get nothing. To want something is half way to get it.
What do you do if you don’t know what you want?
I don’t have huge dreams and big goals, what I do is a few things over and over and when you repeat things you start to love them. When I started on the bike I was not good at all. But now after many years of training I got better, I feel lighter on the bike and I take great pleasure or riding in the mountains of my country. 
Reading is the same, I never read a book until I went to College but when I started reading I never looked back. Now I love to read and I read a lot. Mostly about business but also Novels & Historic.
Someone that never did any sport and want to start I just advise to do a 1 hour daily walk in any area. If they don’t skip a single day in the first month they are hooked and start walking more, feeling better and enjoying it big time.
To me Routine = Small improvements = Perfection = People love what they do well = Happiness



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One of the Best ever

Thursday, June 26, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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You never actually own a Patek Philippe, you merely take care of it for the next generation



































With this add they occupy one spot on the mind of the prospect
To be beautiful or exclusive many watches already occupy that space
To be Swiss or to be making watches since .... is also occupied
To be expensive it's also occupied
To be made by hand also

 to be forever it's a new idea and now it's associated with Patek Philippe.

 it's an investment for your children.















































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Is it possible to kill a brand and make money? YES

Wednesday, June 25, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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After 40 Years, Burger King Drops ‘Have It Your Way’ & Adopts Cryptic ‘Be Your Way’ Slogan

According to Ad Age, the reason behind this change was due to Burger King wanting to create stronger emotional connections with self expression. Burger King wants customers to know it’s OK to be themselves and not be perfect. That’s all well and good, but what does it have to do with me ordering a Whooper Jr.? I can still get it with onion rings inside, right?

http://www.foodbeast.com/2014/05/20/burger-king-passes-on-have-it-your-way-slogan-and-adopts-vague-be-your-way/


Be Your Way BK


The Brazilians from 3G bought Burger King. They are professional at cutting cost are firing people and making the stock price go higher.. After all when a company has a P/E of 20 for each 1 USD of costs you cut Stock price goes up by 20!

 According to bloomberg sales are going down from 2,5 b in 2010 until 1b in 2014

 However net income has been growing big time, from 186 M to 258. Stock price went from 16 at the end of 2012 to 26 now.

 Is it possible to have a dumb marketing, BE YOUR WAY, and not suffer. I guess it is!

 But i wouldn't bet on Burger King. A good marketing strategy must be to differentiate your product. We have something no one has. BE YOUR Way is too dumb.





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No mystery here!

Wednesday, June 25, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Infographic: Comparing China's Concrete Usage in the 20th and 21st Centuries - Making the Modern World by Vaclav Smil, Book Review | GatesNotes.com The Blog of Bill Gates

When i go to NY I am always surprised when i see a Skyscraper being build. Only steel!

In Europe the buildings are made of cement or concrete. That explains this graph. I guess CHINA is the same has Europe.
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No Deflation?

Wednesday, June 25, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/let-them-eat-ipads-14-years-of-data-debunk-feds-inflation-shortfall-canard/
I guess the problem in this table is the following. a Plane Ticket from Lisbon (My city) to Paris now costs 300 euros and in 2000 it would cost 150! However now you can fly Easyjet and pay 30 euros.

I guess College tuition almost double but now i can dowload TED talks, and the best conferences from the best teachers from Milken Institute for free! I can get education for free.

Now i can download music & books almost for free with services that i only have to pay a very small fee and rent the music instead of buying a whole CD when i just want to listen to one or two tunes.

I guess i can buy more with the same money than in 2000. And to me that is deflation. 

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Be nice, or be fired !

Wednesday, June 25, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Even Low wage jobs are doomed

From Businessinsider
Chili's is giving its patrons something to do while they wait for their mix and match fajitas.

The casual dining spot has recently introduced tablets in dining rooms nationwide that customers can use to place orders, browse the menu, and entertain otherwise noisy children.
These tablets, as The Verge notes, aren't the high-end Apple and Samsung devices we've become accustomed to seeing, but rather less expensive computers that are cheaper to replace or repair (theft isn't uncommon).
As tablets in restaurants go, Chili's has become a standard bearer. They just announced the introduction of 45,000 Ziosk tablets in 800 locations.
"By this fall, guests at nearly every Chili's in the country can place orders, play games and pay their checks from our tabletop tablets," said Ziosk CEO Austen Mulinder in a statement.

Applebees Tablet

http://www.businessinsider.com/tablets-are-making-waiters-obsolete-2014-6


Well when you do something that is routine and always the same you are going to be replaced by a machine. That is the future. It could take more or less time. But it's the future. Less people wainting at tables and making a bit more money. As everything else in life when you work with machines you can make a bit more money because you are replacing dozens of people. 

Only the human touch can't be replaced by a machine! So be nice, be of service, give honest advice or be fired.


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Alone for 8 Hours

Thursday, June 19, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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With 45 Celsius, alone for 8 hours



After the finish line in the Sea


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Burning in the Sun

Wednesday, June 18, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I had a race last Saturday called EOX240. I finished 9th only because many cyclists DNF (Did not finish) because of the extreme heat. 

 http://www.eox240.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&layout=item&id=34&Itemid=214&lang=en
We crossed Portugal from Spain to the coast in Zambujeira do Mar. I did 12h43 minutes in the 244 km off road.

The day before the race I slept in Serpa with my kids. Had a pasta dinner and went to bed at 10 pm .
The start was at 6 am in Vila Verde Ficalho in the Border with Spain. I put the alarm clock at 3h30 am. However for some reason the clock went off at 2 am and i didn't take notice of that. So i had shower put my bike clothes and prepared my food for the day. When i went for breakfast there was no breakfast yet because i had spoke to the owner (very nice people to get up at 4 am!) of the Hotel for a 4h15 am early breakfast.

I went back to bed with my clothes on and the sun screen all over me!

Well at 6 am i was ready to go. We were 80 riders for the day. Some of them i know them well because for these ultra races there are not many people crazy enough. Temperature at 6 am was already some 25 Celsius. It was a fast start and i decided not to let my pulse go above 170 so i lost the first group.

At km 56 at the first Food stop i was in the 30th position. I stopped for some water and one banana. After that I went on fast with a group of 5 with my good friend Pedro Henriques who would finish 6th overall.

At km 123 at food stop 2, i was already alone and temperature was already above 40 celsius. when i get there lot's of riders were sitting in the shade and were ready to call it a day.

I refill my Camelback eat more banana and 2 glasses of coke. I didn't got into the shade. My friends from BTT Loulé/BPI the team sponsored by BPI helped me with the chain oil and i was off to the sun again. I had 20 people ahead of me.

From km 123 until km 174 at Food stop 3 i went almost always alone with temperatures around 45 Celsius! Off course i thought about giving up but i always thought about my kids. It would be bad to be back at the Hotel and tell them i had quit. Well i stopped at a hose in someone's garden to refresh , then at a café to pour cold water at my head (more coke) and again & again. I stopped some 10 times during the day to wet myself completely!

At food stop 4 at 5 pm the temperature was getting better and the prospect of the finish line and a swim at the sea made me energetic again. I did the last part of the race at normal speed. It was a difficult day, almost impossible to ride. I saw cyclists in dams to refresh, they din't care about the race, i saw a huge snake with more than 1 meter, i saw cyclists under the trees waiting for something, i saw zero people outside, everybody was inhouse.... I stopped in bar's & cafés something i never do it was a day as i never seen.

After the race with so much water all over me i had big bruises in my bottom and hands because i tried to stay wet as much as i could but that is very bad for the skin. Well i finish , burned 8600 calories and now i feel fine. If i had quit i know it would be something that would annoy me forever.

This is a picture from the same place but in a normal day with normal temperatures. When i get a picture of Saturday race i will post but even the photographer flee from the sun.



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Face at 167 HR

Monday, June 16, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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Routine

Friday, June 06, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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“Routine, in an intelligent man, is a sign of ambition.” 

― W.H. Auden

 I believe in routine. It gives me peace & time to think the important things. Most of the days i eat the same things over & over, start working at the same time only use Brooks Brothers Dress shirts (all white of course) and i workout with the same exercises over & over again.

What is different everyday? I read a lot & everyday i read different things. I met different people all the time & i travel to different cities.

In my workouts i have 2 types of days. Days where i do 80% effort and full effort days where i try to expand my limits. Today it's going to be a 80% day!

“I won’t kiss you. It might get to be a habit and I can’t get rid of habits.” 

― F. Scott Fitzgerald, Flappers and Philosophers (I can't take this blue color, sorry for this )

That is why Diet's don't work but different habits do..... change your habits if you have ambition.
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Bad is Good

Monday, June 02, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Not being a turkey starts with figuring out the difference between true and manufactured stability.

 (Antifragile, Nassim Nicholas-Taleb, Pg. 93, Random House Publishing Group, 2012)

But there is a second, less benign possible reason for low volatility: markets have been so distorted by heavy government interference since 2008 that investors are frozen. 

From gillian.tett@ft.com , Tranquil markets are enjoying too much of a good thing


Is this the calm before the storm?

I don't know but what i see is the following

1.If you have money you get zero income from your Capital
2.If you get zero income you spend less
3.Automation is slowly killing  jobs everywhere
4.If you have no job you spend less
5.All together demand growth is limited, people are already  deep in debt so credit expansion is not an option.
6.Growth is going to disappoint and central banks will keep doing what they have been doing.

If for some reason growth accelerates rates would go up and on a first impact markets would sold off badly! So Good is Bad but i don't see Good coming soon. Growth is going to disappoint.







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