Bad is Good
Not being a turkey starts with figuring out the difference between true and
manufactured stability.
(Antifragile, Nassim Nicholas-Taleb, Pg. 93, Random
House Publishing Group, 2012)
But there is a second, less benign possible reason for low volatility: markets have been so distorted by heavy government interference since 2008 that investors are frozen.
From gillian.tett@ft.com , Tranquil markets are enjoying too much of a good thing
Is this the calm before the storm?
I don't know but what i see is the following
1.If you have money you get zero income from your Capital
2.If you get zero income you spend less
3.Automation is slowly killing jobs everywhere
4.If you have no job you spend less
5.All together demand growth is limited, people are already deep in debt so credit expansion is not an option.
6.Growth is going to disappoint and central banks will keep doing what they have been doing.
If for some reason growth accelerates rates would go up and on a first impact markets would sold off badly! So Good is Bad but i don't see Good coming soon. Growth is going to disappoint.
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