How a Monopoly Looks like

Monday, September 29, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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When you are the best in class this is how your stock price looks like.

 This is the stock price of SHIMANO the brakes in 90% of the world bikes.

 Big Get Bigger is the new trend in Globalization. People can reach for the best. The best can invest in R&D, can spend more in marketing , provide better service & be cheaper.

 It's good to be big & different
Tolstoy opens Anna Karenina by observing: “All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in his own way” Business is the opposite. All happy companies are different: each one earns a monopoly by solving a unique problem. All failed companies are the same: they failed to escape competition”


Peter Thiel, Zero to One Chapter 3

About the same theme:

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/01/is-this-trend.html





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Everything is getting cheaper

Monday, September 29, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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the division of the world into so-called developed and developing nations implies that the "developed" world has already achieved the achievable, and that poor nations just need to catch up.

Peter Thiel, Zero to One


I don't know how the Bloomberg Commodity index is build and I don't intend to investigate. But I  can see that we are at the minimum in 5 years. Why are commodity prices moving sideways/down? Because i don't see the need to build new things, there is plenty of excess capacity in the world. What is the problem? lack of Demand.

How do we solve this problem?

1.Destroy the excess capacity? Only with  a war or a big recession



And of course if you are a producer of Commodities, Emerging markets countries this is not a very good position to be. I see the EM currencies going down big time.

To sell commodities & to buy I-phones is not a good position to be in. You need lot's of trucks of Commodities to buy 1 I-Phone! With this trend you will need more & more trucks.......











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“It is better to be rich and healthy than poor and sick”

Friday, September 26, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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“It is better to be rich and healthy than poor and sick”




 Today the best-educated Americans live 10 to 14 years longer than the least educated, on average. “Nothing pops out of the data like the link between education and life expectancy,” Olshansky says. “The good news is that the share of the American population that is less educated is in gradual decline. The bad news is that lack of education seems even more lethal than it was in the past.”
Education does not sync with life expectancy because reading Dostoyevsky lowers blood pressure; college is a proxy for other aspects of a person’s life. Compared with the less educated, people with a bachelor’s degree have a higher income, smoke less, are less likely to be overweight, and are more likely to follow doctors’ instructions. College graduates are more likely to marry and stay married, and marriage is good for your health: the wedded suffer fewer heart attacks and strokes than the single or divorced.

Gregg Easterbrook, The Atlantic

I guess one way to live longer is not to die in the process. One of the things that increased the expected life at birth is the massive decline in child mortality. The same is true with all the other illnesses. If you can avoid dying in the process you might reach the normal age of 80 or 85.

I was very impressed with the fact that if you wash your hands & have a clean house you probably will have less incidents  (sick less frequently) and in result you can add (or take)  6 or 7 cm of height to the normal biological genes you inherited. People who grow in less clean environments can lose 10 to 12 cm of height vs people who grow in ..........

Each time you are ill and on drugs the growing process is stopped/slowed













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Biggest quality

Wednesday, September 24, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Jacoba Urist, The Atlantic

It began in the early 1960s at Stanford University’s Bing Nursery School, where Mischel and his graduate students gave children the choice between one reward (like a marshmallow, pretzel, or mint) they could eat immediately, and a larger reward (two marshmallows) for which they would have to wait alone, for up to 20 minutes. Years later, Mischel and his team followed up with the Bing preschoolers and found that children who had waited for the second marshmallow generally fared better in life. For example, studies showed that a child’s ability to delay eating the first treat predicted higher SAT scores and a lower body mass index (BMI) 30 years after their initial Marshmallow Test. Researchers discovered that parents of “high delayers” even reported that they were more competent than “instant gratifiers”—without ever knowing whether their child had gobbled the first marshmallow.

“He who controls others may be powerful, but he who has mastered himself is mightier still.”
― Lao Tzu

“Distinguish between real needs and artificial wants and control the latter.”
― Mahatma Gandhi, To Students

Discipline is what it takes to be a disciple of success”
― Constance Chuks Friday

I guess if you can control what you do you can set a goal an execute! If you don't control yourself it's impossible to execute you just drift.

That is why to participate in a sport, to be really good in a sport can bring the discipline and the work habits necessary to do anything in life.


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Bad advice to my kids!

Wednesday, September 24, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Quartz:
The country’s official education ministry announced last week (link in Chinese) that only 70% of people in the country can be considered Mandarin speakers. Of that 70%, the ministry said, “only 10% are capable of communicating fluently” in the language. In short, you don’t have to be fluent in Mandarin to speak better than 93% of China.

Well i always tell my kids that if they study the same things as everybody else they will be easily replaced because there are many millions of kids like them! The argument goes to the conclusion that they should learn something different and I always suggest Mandarin. I guess i will focus on something else! To be really good in some team sport could be a worthwhile goal. To study some language or know a bit more of Math i don't think it would make them different!

 Discipline is what it takes to be a disciple of success
― Constance Chuks Friday

 I guess if you can control what you do you can set a goal an execute! If you don't control yourself it's impossible to execute you just drift.

 That is why to participate in a sport, to be really good in a sport can bring the discipline and the work habits necessary to do anything in life.

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This is really a Social Networking tool

Wednesday, September 24, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Facebook might understand your romantic prospects better than you do.





We can't infer that if you post more you have more chance to enter in a relationship but i bet that is the case.


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Socialist experiment !

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I have seen this Graph in many research publications

 There is a different reality, Income tax in Portugal went from 40% to 56% and you start paying the top tax from a much lower income! While the cost for the employer did not change from 2008 until now! the take home salary is much lower.

 Vat is now 24% all the taxes went higher.

 The Jury is still out about this socialist experiment!


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Why people are not happy these days?

Monday, September 22, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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The best advice I heard a father giving to his son was “always do what you are afraid to do”


 R. W. Emerson
 
Too many young Americans these days don't get a chance to learn how to enjoy work. Much of this country's social and political philosophy seems aimed at removing the risks from life one by one. As i told a group of business students in one of the talks i gave at Dartmouth, it is impossible to grant someone happiness. Happiness is not a tangible thing, it's a byproduct, a byproduct of achievement.
Achievement must be made against the possibility of failure, against the risk of defeat. It is no achievement to walk a tightrope laid flat on the floor. Where there is no risk, there can be no pride in achievement and, consequently , no happiness.


Ray Kroc, Founder of the MacDonald's Corporation when he was 52 years old. 
This was written in 1977 if Ray was alive today no doubt he would be shocked by what is happening in the world. Governments everywhere are taking and removing all the risk from peoples life's. Some companies & Sovereigns are bailed out. More and more people are working for the state (Europe), in my country is very costly to fire a worker even if he is no good. Interest rates are at zero to help Zombie companies. There are government programs to prevent the price of real estate to go down.

are people happier vs a situation where some people failed and others prospered? i Doubt.

A similar idea


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The Most Different place i ever been

Friday, September 12, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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TOKIO

It's a shock 
People are so polite & educated
I took this picture in the tube. Everybody is sleeping some people standing.
There are a lot of fake jobs. People pressing buttons in the lift and some guys just helping the traffic
I the tube there are a lot of people doing apparently nothing
The Four Seasons employees just bow when you passed in the corridors
The taxi drivers have white gloves
Life is difficult for the Japanese. No Growth & no hope for many years.
What do they do? They are polite & educated
I think it's an example of the way to behave.



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Best Graph Ever

Tuesday, September 09, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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People know that Jacks of All Trades are Masters of None, and people seek out Masters. They trust specialists. Try to appeal to thousands, and you will appeal strongly to no one. 
Harry Beckwith

Focusing is about saying No
Steve Jobs

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Why build a new factory?

Monday, September 08, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Long time Insight readers may recall our earlier statistical work that revealed that the most important driver of capital spending by far is the level of spare capacity.

 A.Gary Shilling

 Since most factories are working at 80% why built a new one or to hire new workers?

 In fact what we are seeing is automation of the current factories and get rid of excess man power. 

 There is a lack of demand in the world. In the last 20 years the demand was increased with a growing leverage and credit expansion. Now it's time to pay the debts. We are in deleveraging and that is deflationary!



Capacity Utilization June 2013


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No Risk of a Crash

Monday, September 08, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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According to the CNBC indicator (I just created it) there is no danger. No one is paying attention to the market.

 There is no Euforia like in 2000 & 2008


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1000 euros a month to each person over 65 years !

Friday, September 05, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Yesterday ECB cut rates & announced a QE program (ECB is going to buy ABS & CB’s*). The size is data dependent (ECB is going to buy ABS & CB’s). ECB has already engineered a substantial fall in Sovereign yields and now is weakening the euro. What is the impact.

I guess people who have savings/deposits are going to make zero & spend less & less
Inflation will go up a bit because the Euro is weaker
Companies will benefit because the funding is low & euro is weakening
Stock market should go higher (European Financials)

Is this going to revive the European Economy? I doubt only the weaker euro would help. Let's see how low the Euro can go.

The problem of the world is lack of demand. How to solve this problem? The ECB should give a check of 1000 euros for each European over 65 years a month. This would cost 100 million people over 65 * 1000 = 100 billion a month or 1,2 trillion a year

how did the ECB funded this? Print

why only people above 65? To not mess with the labour market. Until 65 you have to work to live.


More about this:
http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/11/pay-people-for-being-alive.html
*The Idea of a QE program is the person who sells their ABS to the European Central Bank gets some money and have to figure out what to do with the money. They might spend it or loan it eventually the money starts to move.
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You have a business partner

Wednesday, September 03, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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fish
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There are many ways to succeed but I only know 2

Monday, September 01, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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1.Get smarter, invest in data & automation. Science

Keith Bedford for The Wall Street Journal

The new CEO of AIG aims "to manage down the cost of risk," by investing in computers and people to dive deeper into data. 

For clues about what direction Peter Hancock is taking American International Group Inc., check out his tennis racket.
"It's the coolest thing," said Mr. Hancock, the insurer's incoming CEO, of the $350 racket. "It tells you exactly how many forehands, backhands you hit, where on the strings you hit the ball, how many were top spins…" He called it "just one tiny example of the kinds of things [technology] can measure now."...................................

Already, Mr. Hancock has a "chief science officer," a position he added in 2012 to the property-casualty unit as part of his effort to focus on science-driven decisions about strategy. The science team numbers about 130, many of them Ph.D.s.

2.Get nicer, invest in Psychology. Be of service.


All things being equal, people will do business with a friend; all things being unequal, people will still do business with a friend.
Mark McCormack







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Cuba & North Korea are nice destinations

Monday, September 01, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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In one word, you reproach us with intending to do away with your property. Precisely so: that is just what we intend
― Karl Marx, The Communist Manifesto

If people have something to lose they reject communism, only the poor will vote for that. In the last 50 years more & more people have something to lose. Commerce & growth have brought prosperity to millions of people. 

Only the isolated countries (Cuba & North Korea) are still very poor.

The way to make Russia think twice about invading Ukraine might be to isolate them. It could have a cost but the west can afford it. If they don't want to play in the Capitalist game it's ok. Cuba & North Korea is a nice destination.

More about the same

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