Same rules for everybody only benefits the best.

Friday, October 31, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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Europe is in recession again! 

 If the Euro devalues who is going to benefit?

 Germany

 why?
Because only the companies that have positive cash flow (northern Europe) have money to invest in new people, hire army's of researchers ,etc....The companies in the South of Europe are busy not dying, cutting costs, etc...

The creation of the Euro prevents the south of Europe to devalue and therefore they are not competitive. There is a difference in productivity gains and that is growing slowly every year.

The Euro is like ordering the students to study only 2 hours a day maximum. Of course the not so smart/dumb student that takes time to figure things out is at a big disadvantage. 

Same rules for everybody only benefits the best.





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Technology has always been destroying jobs!

Friday, October 31, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Starting next month, Lowe’s plans to release several OSHbots into one of its Orchard Supply Hardware stores (the “OSH” in OSHbot) in San Jose, California. The robots’ job will be to greet customers, help them find what they need, and guide them around the store.
In a typical interaction, Nel told me, an OSHbot would roll up and greet you as you walked in: “Hi, can I help you? What are you looking for today?” You might answer that you need to replace some plumbing pipes, prompting the OSHbot to ask whether you’ve got the original pipe. If you had it, you would put it in front of a viewfinder, and the robot would scan it, identify it, and direct you to the item in the store. It could even guide you to the place where the item is stocked. The OSHbot will be conversant in English and Spanish, to start, with other languages to be added later. It is also impressively self-sufficient: when it’s about to run out of power, it slides itself right over to a charging spot. Nel hopes OSHbots will eventually be rolling around in Lowe’s stores around the country.



I have no doubt Robots will replace humans in most tasks not only because of costs but because they are better. In the Lowe's case the OHSbots speaks English & Spanish! I guess it's difficult to hire people with the same memory & skill's.

Almost all the Medical doctors MD's are going to be replaced because they are no good at diagnosing illness. with the same set of data from a patient  10 doctors give 6 different results!

It's a matter of providing the computer with the data. Once it has the data, it's able to consider thousands or millions of times more parameters than a human can hold in their head."
 Dr Pete Diamandis

If robot's will do most of the jobs where do you think the factory is going to be located? I guess near the final market. No need to outsorce the production to inland CHINA.

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What looks like a bad idea to some is a winner in the hands of another !

Wednesday, October 29, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Barry Ritholtz,

1. Ideas are a dime a dozen, execution is everything.
2. We do not live in a pitch economy, almost no one is buying ideas, they’re buying companies, they’re buying something active that is generating capital.
3. We’re all Missourians today, that’s right, we all live in the SHOW ME state. We want to see evidence of your success, of the implementation of your idea, we don’t just want to hear you talk about it.
4. Ideas are in the air. Many people are working on similar breakthroughs at the same time. While you believe your idea is unique, there’s a good chance someone else is aware of it and is trying to achieve the same goal and is working while you sleep.
5. Talk is cheap. That’s why it’s so hard to get someone of power to converse, never mind go to a meal. A professional can tell in just a few sentences whether you’re real. Furthermore, if you create something real these same professionals will be breathing down your neck.

 http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/10/execution/

To only think about execution is to be blind. People who just execute were almost killed in 2008.
Of course is very important to be persistent, to never give up , to put the hours and to give it all. The people with this treats usually are the best. 

What looks like a bad idea to some is a winner in the hands of another. I believe in this, that is the reason why with the same product you are a winner in some countries and can't get a start in other markets. That is the reason why many people who don't read a book ever can make a living. 

Despite this i think you have to think a bit. Keep your eyes open. We are in a world where governments are intervening and regulating, preventing the market forces to express themselves. In this world you have to think because one day you get caught.

“A turkey is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher, and every day confirms to the turkey and the turkey’s economics department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement. But on day 1,001, there will be a surprise for the turkey…”

From Nassim Taleb

If we are in 2007 and the Housing market is going up for 20th year in a row and suddenly you feel something changes and some Mortgage originators are getting in trouble, etc... you have to think and change. If you keep blindly executing you might end like the Turkey. 
This is the reason i have my savings in products that can profit from a falling market. The market has been rising for many years, but who knows if it could change. If it does eventually i don't lose so much as i would in a product that only profit from good things.
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Big Get Bigger

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Adidas acknowledges it is hard to recruit at its headquarters near the Bavarian town of Herzogenaurach, particularly for design, marketing and digital roles, and admits it missed trends in the U.S. market, where Under Armour < ua.n> has just overtaken it as No. 2 behind Nike. Nike's better than expected earnings on Sept. 25 underscored its ascendancy.
Adidas is responding by locating some key design roles in the United States at the same time as investing heavily in new facilities at its home base near the historic Bavarian town where Adidas was founded by shoe maker Adi Dassler in 1949.






Many people thought that with internet you could work anywhere in the world, work from home , etc... Unfortunately what we have seen in the last 10 years is a concentration of everything in the big cities, Financial centers are attracted to London & NY, real estate in the center of London & New York are going trough the roof etc...

This is the reason i think Samsung is a short because it's located in Seoul and Seoul is not Silicon Valley. Unfortunately the best way to make a living is to be in the center.

Besides it is so much more efficient to live in a city!  To get water in the countryside  is a big problem & a big cost. Big get bigger is still the trend.

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Not a lot of sleep lately!

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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My new Baby !

Thursday, October 23, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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“If you want your children to be intelligent, read them fairy tales. If you want them to be more intelligent, read them more fairy tales.”
― Albert Einstein


Here is António with 24 hours!

 Everyting is going well we are all very happy. We hope to go home today.










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make your money last longer

Monday, October 20, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 2 Comments

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Security, Sunshine, Cheap housing, nice empty beaches & very low taxes (just for foreigners)

 Portugal
You might be surprised to know that Portugal is one of the most peaceful countries in the world, but it’s true. 

 http://travel.amerikanki.com/most-peaceful-countries-in-the-world/18/
The World has an oversupply of stuff, things, gadget's, everything etc,..... 
Since there is no jobs for everyone lot's of people are idle or unemployed
They are not necessary, the world does not need your skills (Sorry to tell you this)
What does the world need? 

 To keep people busy & occupied. Since people are not making a lot of money you don't want to live expensive.

 If i was a Norwegian i would buy a house in Portugal, spend the winter here and rent the house in the summer. 

 Housing in Portugal is very very cheap for a Norwegian
Hospitals are ok
Weather i don't have to tell
security is ok
If a Norwegian lives in Portugal for more than x days he can opt to be taxed in Portugal and the rate could be zero (for 10 years)
3 hour flight back to Norway
You can make money on the House
No strange diseases in Portugal (no Malaria, nothing)

 I am not in the real estate business but i can figure out that the trick going forward is to live in a poorer country than yours. But you don't want to go live in Cabo Verde Islands in the middle of the Atlantic. It's far away, no Hospitals, malaria & it's too hot.

 If you have a house in London but for the moment you are not making a lot of money rent the house and come live in a cheaper country.




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What is more important what you learn in College or the people you get to know there?

Thursday, October 16, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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A separate study of 6,300 undergraduates at the University of California found that students today spend fewer that thirteen hours a week studying, while they spend twelve hours hanging out with friends, fourteen hours consuming entertainment and pursuing various hobbies, eleven hours using computers for fun, and six hours exercising.

From How Children Succeed

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0099588757/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1634&creative=6738&creativeASIN=0099588757&linkCode=as2&tag=thouoftheday-21&linkId=FQWG56WFKKDS3VNF


 As the people who follow by Blog know i don't think college transforms a dumb person in a smart one. most of colleges do exams and pick and choose their students before they enroll. They were already smart before they get there.

 So what are colleges for? 

 1.Make new friends
2.get new working habits (do many things at the same time)
3.Eventually , learn how to learn a new subject
4.Get a diploma that is important to find a job. Employers don't know how to pick candidates so they use academic CV to sort them. 




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If you want, Anything is possible

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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With self-discipline most anything is Possible

 Therefore Roosevelt

The most famous, and notorious, study demonstrating the power of early deliberate practice on success in chess was conducted by Laszlo Polgar, a Hungarian psychologist who, in the 1960s, published a book titled Bring Up Genius! The book argued that with enough hard work, parents could turn any child into an intellectual prodigy. When he wrote the book, Polgar was single and childless, and thus in no position to test his theory himself, but he set out to change that, winning the heart of a Hungarian-speaking foreign-language teacher named Klara who was living in Ukraine but was persuaded to move to Budapest by Polgar's letters, which detailed how together they would raise a family of geniuses. And then, amazingly, they did just that. Laszlo and Klara had three girls, Susan, Sofia, and Iudit and Laszlo homeschooled them all in an academic program that focused almost exclusively on chess (though the girls also learned several foreign languages, including Esperanto). Each girl began studying chess before her fifth birthday, and they were all soon playing eight to ten hours each day. Susan, the oldest, won her first tournament at age four. At fifteen, she became the top-rated female chess player in the world, and in 1991, when she was twenty-one, she became the first female grand master. Her success was an impressive confirmation of her father’s contention that geniuses are made, not born, and Susan wasn’t even the best chess player in the family. That was Iudit, the youngest, who became a grand master at fifteen, breaking Bobby Fischer's record as the youngest person to claim the title. Judit's overall chess ranking peaked in 2005, when she was the eighth-highest-ranked player in the world. with a rating of 2735; she is now universally considered to be the best female chess player ever to walk the planet. (Sofia was pretty good too; her top rating was 2505, at which point she was the sixth-best female player in the world, a stunning accomplishment for anyone but a Polgar.)

From How Children Succeed, Paul Tough
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0099588757/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1634&creative=6738&creativeASIN=0099588757&linkCode=as2&tag=thouoftheday-21&linkId=FQWG56WFKKDS3VNF


Well if you want to be like everybody you know a bit about many things and are a normal person. If you want to be special you put the hours and the focus. One question i don't know  is who is happier? I would guess that the focus/dedicated is busy and occupied and since  people love to excel in something you are definitely very happy. If you do many things , not good in nothing, watch a lot of Tv, tried a lot of sports, study many subjects without any focus or passion i guess you are just drifting.
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One business with a good future

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I have read this article in the NYT, Why are Americans so fascinated with extreme Fitness?
Fitness culture couldn’t have changed more significantly since the late ’60s. Back then, residents of my small Southern hometown would spot my father, an early jogger, and yell out of their car windows, “Keep running, hippie!” These days there aren’t that many joggers in my Los Angeles neighborhood, but every other block there’s another fitness center offering boot-camp classes or Brazilian jiujitsu, with people inside punching, kicking and yelling at one another like drill sergeants. Jim Fixx’s freewheeling running disciples have been replaced by packs of would-be Navy SEALs, sprinting up sandy hillsides with backpacks full of rocks strapped to their shoulders.


 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/19/magazine/why-are-americans-so-fascinated-with-extreme-fitness.html?_r=0

 Every cycling competition that i attend have more & more people, in some races they have a draw to sort the people who can participate from the thousands.

 This is the stock price of NIKE since 2008. Business should be good!

People engage in extreme competition like the Transportugal, a 1,100 km off road race across Portugal in 9 days that i completed for the 4th time. In order to finish you have to prepare hard for 1 year, be really skinny and suffer big time.

People engage in Iron Man's and other extreme competitions? Why?

I guess people are a bit bored and many have very little to do. There are no jobs to everyone and many that have jobs are doing little. Automation & excess capacity make people a bit idle.

That is the reason people pay to be busy. That could be the business of the future to keep people occupied and happy. I am not saying it's a good business to everyone because there are very few barriers to entry but you can make a living.

One link about the current state of the world:





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How to improve our kids

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Dweck divides people in two types: those who have a fixed mindset, who believe that intelligence and other skills are essentially static and inborn, and those who have a growth mindset, who believe that intelligence can be  improved. She has shown that students mindsets predict their academic trajectories: those who believe that people can improve their intelligence actually improve their grades.

From How Children Succeed, Paul Tough



I guess this is the message we have to pass to our kids. 

 Intelligence is not Static, work and you will get smarter. An this really happens!
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If you want to be Skinny don't drink Alcohol !

Monday, October 13, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Did 6h20 minutes on the 168k  with 4000 meters of climbing, 5 minutes more than last year! Average watts 201 and average HR was 150.  Last year i had a flat tire so this year i wasn't so well.

 what happened?

 i did train hard this year but i drank some wine & eat more. last year i paid a lot of attention with my diet. Now i am overweight and there is a price to pay!

 It's simple as that. To be skinny is paramount for the bike.

 Here i had less 5kg than now!



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Why I am not a Cycling Champion?

Thursday, October 09, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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This video illustrates the reason.

 It's the Chimp in my head!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StNCvT2-Z8o

more about this:

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2012/09/despite-repetition-most-people-fail-to.html

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This is biggest problem of Europe (Besides the politicians of course)

Thursday, October 09, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I guess if Energy costs less than half in US than in Europe some manufacturing is going to move there! 





natural gas prices
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First ATM in Somalia

Wednesday, October 08, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I guess there is still room to make money in Africa banking

Cash withdrawal machine in Mogadishu, Somalia (7 October 2014)
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Big get Bigger in the Bible

Wednesday, October 08, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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For whoever has will be given more, and they will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them.

Matthew 25:29
I am a big believer in the exponential growth and that is why it pays to be big, it pays to focus and only do one thing very well (after low improvements in the beginning things get better & better and of course people love to do what they do well. The solution? put the hours in few endeavors,  concentrate, Focus.

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SELL SELL SELL NOW

Tuesday, October 07, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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EAFE 1014 Monday links: avoiding terrible


EBOLA is getting noticed now, 7th of October

 I think the markets can dive a bit soon

 Time to SELL a bit.

 Do it NOW

 Iam doing it myself
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If you want to marry, get a JOB

Monday, October 06, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the Economist
A new study from the Pew Research Centre, a think-tank, finds that little has changed. Fully 78% of American women who have never been married say it is “very important” that their future spouse has a “steady job”.................Among young American adults with a high school certificate or less, there are 174 never-married men for every 100 never-married women. The difference largely reflects the difficulty poorly-educated men have finding work.


Education and Marriage: Shifting Patterns for Women and Men


Nothing new here It's difficult to live with nothing! Besides helping to get married a JOB helps lower anxiety and depression. Nothing better than to be busy. It's better any job than no job.


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A good way to be promoted = stand tall & go to the GYM

Monday, October 06, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From The Economist,
Posing for power
Can anything be done about this predisposition for promoting people of a certain type? Ideally, those selecting a new boss would conscientiously set aside all the stereotypes, and judge candidates purely on their merits. However, given a plethora of candidates, all with perfect CVs, selection committees continue to look for the “X” factor and find, strangely enough, that it resides in people who look remarkably like themselves. Another solution is to introduce quotas for CEOs and board members. But the risk is that this ends in tokenism rather than a genuine equalising of opportunity. So, some management experts suggest we just accept that stereotypes and prejudices cannot be wished away, and simply help those born outside the magic genetic circle project a sense of power and self-confidence.
Ms Cuddy gave a talk on “power poses” to the 2012 TED Global conference which has since become TED’s second most downloaded talk. In her recent book, “Executive Presence”, Sylvia Anne Hewlett of the Centre for Talent Innovation in New York urges young women to lower the register of their voices, as Margaret Thatcher did, eliminate uptalking and other vocal tics, and look people in the eye when giving presentations. She advises every would-be manager to work out regularly and look as fit as possible. This may sound like a bit of a cop-out. But the evidence is strong that candidates for top jobs can still be undermined by superficial things like posture and tone of voice. More than a century ago, Oscar Wilde quipped: “It is only shallow people who do not judge by appearances.” Unfortunately those who choose leaders still seem to think this way.


I guess most people have similar cv's & backgrounds and when in doubt why not to choose the looks. Everybody has the idea of the best in class, everyone wants to learn the exact same things and try to be the best in class. The best in class is the worse idea someone could have because you get many people that can replace you. Almost all of the class.

When you are working in a brand/good business like Coca Cola it doesn't matter very much who you hire. Why not to hire a big tall guy with a CEO posture.

Besides this I have read that it you stand tall & upright you feel more self confident. Why not!

So back to Gym & dieting. It makes us feel better and helps our career.


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3+1 ideas from one of the best Portuguese thinker ever (the last one in English)

Monday, October 06, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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A grande diferença entre o inteligente e o estúpido - entre o chamado inteligente e o chamado estúpido - é que o primeiro se esforça

Agostinho da Silva

Nenhuma vida tem qualquer significado ou qualquer valor se não for uma contínua batalha contra o que nos afasta da perfeição que é o nosso único dever

Agostinho da Silva

O que não se adquire pelo sofrimento para nada vale na ordem mais profunda das coisas


Agostinho da Silva


Don't make too many plans for your life, so as not to ruin those it has in store for you.

AS
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I don't want to live in China!

Monday, October 06, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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China CO2 emissions are exploding. It's impossible to live in China.

I see two opportunities here

a)To sell holidays to Chinese in a clean country! Many Chinese are already buying a house in Portugal. I guess it's because they want a VISA & not because Portugal is still pretty much clean.

b)To really research on clean energy. If clean energy is just clean no one will use it but if it's clean & cost effective (I mean much cheaper than fossil fuels we have an opportunity). This is the place to do R&D. (As you can see in the Bloomberg graph below the Renixx index, of Renawable energy has not been a good investment because the solutions are not yet cost effective). This is a good place to put R&D money.



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There is no limit to Innovation

Wednesday, October 01, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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VOX Updated by on September 29, 2014, 10:10 a.m. ET

Solar panels are still a niche product. But the cost of solar rooftop systems has been plummeting in recent years (see chart). Firms like SolarCity will now install solar systems at no upfront cost to customers who can then make monthly payments. Plus, there's a 30 percent federal tax credit for residential solar systems until the end of 2016.
The Price of Installing Solar Power is going down big time. I am not a specialist but i guess if Solar Panel lasted forever it would make sense to buy them at any price. However the solar panels have a limited life. So the point is to figure out if the power they produce is enough to compensate the initial cost. Since the Installation cost is going down i guess fossil energy has to come down also.
solar price plummet
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