It's impossible to compete it's better to be different

Wednesday, March 30, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the ECONOMIST

THE odds of becoming an American astronaut have always been slim. But this year the competition will be cosmically difficult: over 18,300 people have applied to join NASA’s next astronaut class, over double the previous record in 1978 and almost three times the number that applied for the most recent class, in 2012. The would-be starmen and women will jockey for up to 14 spots.


In order to be irreplaceable one must always be different. 

Coco Chanel

I only buy Chinese if it's very cheap

Tuesday, March 29, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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China now produces the world's largest number of undergraduates with degrees in science and engineering (S&E) - arguably the country's most important asset in its quest for global innovation leadership.

From the Great weekly letter, what i learned this week.  www.13d.com


I don't know if this is very material, didn't soviet Union produced millions of graduates? of course China has a market economy where prices are very important allocator's of capital and Soviet Union didn't.

i came across this table below? i don´t see Apple very often or Netflix, google, Mercedes/Daimler or Uber. I guess money is not enough quality, design & marketing matters. I don't bet big on CHINA. 

why? I only buy Chinese if it's very cheap

Top 20 R&D Spenders 2005-2015

how to get better? Move to a big city

Monday, March 28, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the Economist,

Cities have long been the most productive places to do business, because they bring firms, customers and workers closer together. A banker in New York is only a taxi ride away from her clients; a new restaurant there immediately has 8.4m potential customers on its doorstep. Where clever people congregate, innovation results.


For the most successful cities, these advantages seem to be getting bigger. In 2001 the richest 50 cities and their surroundings produced 27% more per head than America as a whole. Today’s richest cities make 34% more.

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21694356-inequality-between-states-has-risen-most-past-15-years-americas-most-successful-cities

I guess it's obvious that you produce more & earn more if you live in a big city. also you have more choice from a gym to a girl or boyfriend. Everything is easier from learning a new language, to listen cheaply to JAZZ etc...

With all this advantages what is the downside? Housing is very expensive and people compensate living in really small apartments.

I don't see this trend to reverse. As a business build cheap housing with small areas in the city center. There will be demand for that.

There is one big downside on living in a big city. You are a specialist and you depend on the system for everything. If the power grid goes down you are helpless. you can't use your lift to get out of the building, you stay without water and pretty soon there are going to be riots & violence.

To live in a city is very efficient but you are a sitting duck. You are a specialist you only know about something very narrow. It's scary but it's the best option.

More about the same:

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/06/small-is-not-so-beautiful.html

McKinsey firgerprint's are all over Valeant

Thursday, March 24, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the FT, John Gapper 

Valeant’s downfall is not exactly McKinsey’s fault but its fingerprints are everywhere. Half of its six-person senior executive team formerly worked at McKinsey, including Michael Pearson, its chief executive, and Robert Rosiello, its finance director. So did Ronald Farmer, the director who chairs its “talent and compensation” committee, which temporarily transformed Mr Pearson into a billionaire.
It is as if the McKinsey alumni network now meets in Canada, the country to which Mr Pearson moved Valeant for tax reasons following a 2010 merger. He had been hired as its chief executive in 2008, when the board liked his strategic advice so much that it asked him to take charge of implementing it.
Mr Pearson, who worked for Mc­Kinsey for 23 years, rising to head its global pharmaceuticals practice and sit on its 30-member shareholder council (the equivalent of its board of directors), was not the quintessential suave and intellectual McKinsey partner. He was loud and profane and was seen, in the words of one former colleague, as “sharp edged and sharp elbowed”.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0bb37fd2-ef63-11e5-aff5-19b4e253664a.html#axzz43oiBQmVH


All organization's can always have some rotten Apples however my experience with Mckinsey is one where they get the data and decide accordingly. I don't see visions or ideas, i see a organization obsessed by data points and return to the mean. The famous Hedge Fund LTCM was also obsessed with data and they went under.If leverage is big you don't have time for some setbacks. In the LTCM case leverage was enormous/huge. 

My take on Valeant is probably all they have done makes sense and  they are big time levered. Probably they will do well if they can keep the financing lines open and get out of the news.

Improve most people’s lives a little, just that

Monday, March 21, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the FT, Simon Kuper

If Donald Trump is the world’s most colourful politician, Angela Merkel is probably the least. She is resolutely tedious even by the standards of German politics. The new German verb merkeln means “to do nothing, make no decisions or statement”. She never talks about a “German dream”, and you will not see her campaign under the slogan, “Make Germany great again”.
Even when she suddenly opened Germany’s borders to more than one million people last summer, she phrased this quixotic act in pragmatic language: “Wir schaffen das,” “We can do this.” Germany’s centre has largely held since, despite big advances for the anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland in last Sunday’s regional elections. Even amid the migrant crisis, most mainstream German politicians have remained boring pragmatists. Their aim: very slowly improve most people’s lives a little, while averting disaster. 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/942b2172-ebc5-11e5-888e-2eadd5fbc4a4.html


This is so true, most people that want to change the world make life miserable. On the contrary i am a big believer in small increments. On the bike i just think about small improvements and that has help me a lot.If i do a bit better than last year i will do very well

another link about small improvements: 

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/06/what-do-you-do-if-you-dont-know-what.html

Why do people need a good investor Advisor?

Monday, March 21, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Fashions have done more harm than revolutions. 
Victor Hugo

He or she might even earn the fee by persuading you not to do stupid things when in a panic.
John Gapper, FT 17th of March

I agree, most of the people have really bad ideas namely to hit big or to win fast. I remember when i was a lousy tennis player i use to win because i didn't try to win. I just make sure that i put the ball in the other side and let the other guy try the nice shots. Of course this does not work if you are playing with a good player but if you are playing with an average player this is the way to do it.

In the markets i know you win if you don't make big mistakes! Don't do stupid things.

No crisis here !

Friday, March 11, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Your life is, in many ways, worse than your parents! FALSE

Thursday, March 10, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Fom the Telegraph, Alex Proud

It’s rubbish being middle class these days.
Your income is stagnant, your job is going nowhere, you can’t afford a nice house or a good school and you get nothing from the state. Your life is, in many ways, worse than your parents’, and the future is looking bleaker still. What’s more, nobody cares. If you moan, they’ll just laugh at you.
This is a fairly recent development but one that has surprisingly deep roots.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/pity-me--im-part-of-britains-middle-class-and-its-rubbish/


I don't think our life is worse than our parents. This is simply not true.

10 reasons why life is better than ever

1.You die later
2.People don't smoke around me
3.I can download books and music almost for free
4.people don't work on Saturdays anymore
5.we can travel all Europe without passport
6.Someone invented the mountain bike 20 years ago
7.Planes are cheap
8.I can eat sushi and my parents didn't even knew sushi existed
9.People spend more time in nature/wild since the cave man
10.These days it's not nice trow litter in the street anymore

Of course there are problems like too much people trying the same things, taking the same education and are surprised they have a huge competition. there is more free time and that is a problem, when you are very busy trying to survive you don't have time to think. with a lot of spare time ...............................

Life is going to be even better unless Robots become a problem (nothing to do). I think military robots are going to replace man for sure. That is good and bad of course.

Get a Hobby, something that you pay to do (Dog, bike, plants, etc...) and enjoy life! That is my advice

The best you can do for yourself

Thursday, March 03, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the Economist

A run a day keeps the tumour at bay

AMPLE evidence shows that exercising regularly reduces the risk of cancer. Similarly, those who have survived the disease are less likely to see it return if they engage in lots of physical activity after treatment. All this suggests that such activity triggers a reaction in the body which somehow thwarts cancer cells, but the details of the process have remained murky. Now, a team led by Pernille Hojman at Copenhagen University Hospital, in Denmark, has reported in Cell Metabolism that the key to the mystery is adrenalin.

More about the same:

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2012/12/regular-exercise-even-walking-leads-to.html


As you can read above exercise reduces the risk of cancer and it's the best for the brain. On top of that my view of the world is that people do business with people they like on the first look. in an interview you pick your candidate at first look and then you find out why? Looks mater and mater a lot. CR7 makes more money from his abs than from his feet.





From WSJ, Most people assume being good-looking gives you a career boost. But just how much does it help? 

A lot. Good-looking people charm interviewers, get hired faster, are more likely to make more sales and get 

more raises.

Democracy does not work

Wednesday, March 02, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Democracy is the road to socialism. 

Karl Marx


Aristotle