I have a DOG

Thursday, December 28, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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It is easier to prevent bad habits than to break them. 
Benjamin Franklin
Motivation is what gets you started. Habit is what keeps you going. 
Jim Rohn

I have a dog and of dogs are not like people. however all the things that started in a certain way became an habit and now are routine. He knows what to expect and is very happy I think! 

 The bad habits he has now it's almost impossible to change.

I guess for a dog it's difficult to start bad and then change.

 he doesn't eat human food from day one, now he doesn't circle the table while we eat
he is not allowed to enter the living room, he stays outside even when I am not at home
he does his poop in a garden from day one and now he never poops in the walkway 
he only eats at daybreak and he is not eager for food all day
it's illegal but I never put a leash in the dog. he just walks besides me everywhere
So for a dog or at least my dog it's very important what you do in the first days. Start well is my advice.

 for me I think all the bad habits I have are a result of illness and lack of goals. as soon as I have a difficult goal in sports or in my job everything goes in to place. everything. I need to sleep more,  need not to drink wine in the week days, diet, get up before 6 am,  don't check email as often, cold showers etc...

 be busy and everything gets in place!


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I think that is no longer the case

Thursday, December 28, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I think the world is divided in two groups

companies that are obsessed with the client experience and that want and need good employees and the management is good

companies that are in industries that are highly regulated where the target is to conform and obey the thousand new rules that came to the market every year

there are not enough jobs in companies that want to do well for the client.



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The best resume!

Wednesday, December 27, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Resume: a written exaggeration of only the good things a person has done in the past, as well as a wish list of the qualities a person would like to have. 

 Bo Bennett

 To me the best way to do a resume is not to say that i am good in A, B &C

 Is to show that I was able to go from A to B, to grow to improve to fight to be a better person. I can grow that is a good resume for me is someone that i know that can learn to be better.




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In many things there is no premium to being fast

Wednesday, December 27, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Similarly, when Strategy researchers Sucheta Nadkarni and Pol Herrmann studied nearly two hundred companies in India, the firms with the highest financial returns were the ones whose CEOs rated themselves the lowest on efficiency and promptness.
In both cases, the most successful organizations were run by executives who
admitted that they often wasted time before settling down to work and
sometimes failed to pace themselves to get things done on time.


Adam Grant, Originals 


This reminds me the joke where some guys are moving some furniture in a tall building and the leader of the group asks one guy to check how many more floors to the top?
After checking he comes back down and announces he has good and bad news. The leader says, just give me the good news!
We only have 3 more floors till the top.....
They get back to work
when they reached the top the leader asks What were the bad news?
This is the wrong tower !


It's better to ponder and think before rushing and executing something that should never been executed


There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all. 

Peter Drucker
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Yesterday i visited PHOTO ARK !

Tuesday, December 26, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Very nice exhibition! very peaceful experience.
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There is no first mover advantage in the real world

Tuesday, December 26, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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 “In a classic study, marketing researchers Peter Golder and Gerard Tellis compared the success of companies that were either pioneers or settlers. The pioneers were first movers: the initial company to develop or sell a product. The settlers were slower to launch, waiting until the pioneers had created a market before entering it. When Golder and Tellis analyzed hundreds of brands in three dozen different product categories, they found a staggering difference in failure rates: 47 percent for pioneers, compared with just 8 percent for settlers. Pioneers were about six times more likely to fail than settlers. Even when the pioneers did survive, they only captured an average of 10 percent of the market, compared with 28 percent for settlers.”
― Adam M. Grant, Originals: How Nonconformists Move the World


I don't totally agree with Adam Grant on this, i think there is a big advantage in creating a new market and being associated with the new market. like Xerox was associated with copies. If you enter the mind of the prospect before the competition you have that spot. That is an advantage forever
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A very good Day

Sunday, December 17, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Saturday i did the Troia Sagres. Thousands of people in the road.

 200 km. Our Team did 36 km/h it was a good training.

 here a small video at the start with some 6 degrees celsius. I am the last one to be seen with a white helmet






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it's good to be your own boss

Wednesday, December 13, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Bloomberg

 “It’s probably the worst year I’ve had relative to the set of opportunities out there," Druckenmiller said in a CNBC interview Tuesday.
The famed money manager, who was the architect of George Soros’s $10 billion trade shorting the British pound in 1992, said that while he’s done well in stocks, he’s "really, really mistraded macro," and that 2017 may turn out to be his first ever down year in currencies. Druckenmiller said he’s up single-digits this year.


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Sorry no Inflation in the horizon

Sunday, December 10, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Bloomberg Mliv, Mark Cudmore



Formerly known as Dow Jones-UBS Agriculture Subindex Total Return (DJUBAGTR), the index is a commodity group subindex of the Bloomberg CITR. The index is composed of futures contracts on
coffee, corn, cotton, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal,sugar and wheat. It reflects the return on
fully collateralized futures positions and is quoted in USD.
Ever-cheaper food may wreak havoc for markets next year. It's clear from the Markets Live macro assets survey on WHIS that the consensus is for higher benchmark yields in 2018. That suggests a belief inflation will pick-up.

But food prices are a key input to CPI globally and they continue to fall. Technology and science are making agriculture increasingly efficient and there are plenty of gains still to be made globally. The Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex closed at the lowest level since records began in 1991. And it's unlikely to see relief soon given that the weakness has caught speculators offside. Friday's CFTC data showed that the combined net-long positions for agricultural products increased more than 10-fold in the week ending Dec. 5.

And it really matters. Falling food prices were cited as the core reason why China's weekend CPI release came in below expectations. On the other side of the world, Brazil's latest CPI print came in below all economists' forecasts. This year has seen the measure drop below the target range for the first time since 1999 after the 7th-straight decline for food prices.

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The world is a better place!

Monday, December 04, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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America First it’s easy with a weak USD

Monday, December 04, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Bloomberg:

 The proposed overhaul will be the third major change to the U.S. tax code over the past 40 years. The Dollar Index plummeted 16% in 1986 after Ronald Reagan's reforms reduced the top income-tax rate to 38% from 50%. After George W. Bush cut taxes on dividends in 2003, the currency slid 15%.



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Stay the course

Tuesday, November 21, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Stop the Yield Curve Panic-Mongering. It's a Bullish Indicator


By Mark Cudmore
(Bloomberg) -- 
Okay, I'm getting really frustrated when I hear some of the commentary on the yield curve.

The fact is, a flattening 2s-10s curve is generally a positive indicator for the economy and for equities.

The research shows:
  • An inverted U.S. yield curve is normally a precursor to a recession.
  • However, during the last 30 years, it has taken at least a year, and an average of 18 months, after the initial inversion before the recession set in. The economy actually kept growing as the curve narrowed.
  • And, importantly, the U.S. yield curve still has a long way to go before it inverts.
  • During the last 30 years, a recession has come only after the curve starts steepening again post-inversion.
  • The related S&P 500 peaks came an average of 13 months after the curve first inverted.

yesterday the market trow us another all time high on the DOW, S&P etc... i guess we will see more until the Tax relieve is approved . when that happens we could have a sell on the news event. Until that i think it's totally green light.

But even after that correction we are in a Bull market in everything except value. That will come back.


From EVA Capital Management presentation


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It takes some time for Communism to work it's magic!

Tuesday, November 21, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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But it's s sure result!

BROKE

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i wouldn't bet on commodities yet

Monday, November 20, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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there is a reason for commodities to be getting cheaper for centuries

 technology makes it easy to extract more and technology makes more with less

 there is only one reason for commodities to go up! more people with money in the planet but i think technology will prevail.



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The Swiss are making a killing!

Sunday, November 19, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The swiss (Swiss national Bank) are making a huge profit. Good for them.


From The Great Gartman letter. We have written many times about the fact... and it is a fact... that the Swiss National Bank has effectively become both the nation’s central bank and one of the largest, if not indeed the very largest, hedge funds in the world. The process began several years ago when the SNB swore that it would do what it could and using what methods were available to it to weaken the Swiss franc relative to the EUR and to the US dollar. It has succeeded, until recently, creating Swiss francs out of the thinnest of air, and selling those Francs vs. the EUR and the dollar, and then taking those EURs and dollars to buy European and US equities and debt securities. The SNB’s balance sheet is a CHf 813 billion (and given that the CHf and the US dollar are effectively at parity one with the other that CHf 813 billion is the same as $813 billion) and this is very nearly 125% of the Swiss GDP.

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It's not cholesterol

Friday, November 17, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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it looks like some doctors were wrong! It's not fat or cholesterol the origin of heart disease!

 perhaps sugar or cigarette


Resultado de imagem para all heart disease cigarette
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Why EM never emerge!

Thursday, November 16, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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why do we have Emerging markets crisis from time to time

 1.Because EM are not catching up with DM. That is the reality
2.Globalization makes people from EM desire what we have in DM not the opposite
3.Automation is not friendly to EM
4.The best minds in EM don't stay in their countries
5.The cancer treatment is not going to be invented in any EM country

 Except Singapore and perhaps Korea no Emerging market ever emerged

 Turkey is running a chunky current account deficit of about US$40bn a year, and has a large external debt of about US$400bn on a gross basis and US$200bn on a net basis (about 50% of GDP).

GaveKal


Looking at The Economist Indicators i see a crisis coming soon.

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Where you live matters

Tuesday, November 14, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Lately Globalization brings two trends

 1.Poor countries continue to catch up to the rich countries but slowly. The only country that transitioned from poor to rich is Singapore. Perhaps Korea & Japan are also amazing transitions.

 2.Regional inequality withing rich countries increased.
An example Silicon valley is pulling apart from the rest of America. Companies tend to cluster (Detroit) and when one industry gets in trouble one region suffers. In the past people moved from the declining region to the land of opportunity. Not anymore because social security and government subsidies can make people stay in dying regions.  


Divergence is the result of big forces. In the modern economy scale is increasingly important. The companies with the biggest hoards of data can train their machines most effectively; the social network that everyone else is on is most attractive to new users; the stock exchange with the deepest pool of investors is best for raising capital. These returns to scale create fewer, superstar firms clustered in fewer, superstar places. Everywhere else is left behind.


The Economist





Resultado de imagem para the economist the rich get richer
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People are becoming less mobile

Tuesday, November 14, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the Economist

 Perversely, policies to help the poor unintentionally exacerbate the plight of left-behind places. Unemployment and health benefits enable the least employable people to survive in struggling places when once they would have had no choice but to move. Welfare makes capitalism less brutal for individuals, but it perpetuates the problems where they live.
https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21730412-time-fresh-thinking-about-changing-economics-geography-right-way-help-declining
also from the same article of The Ecomonist
The pension of a teacher who stays in the same state could be twice as big as that of a teacher who moves mid-career.



I noticed that people move less & less the system is designed to discourage people to move to the land of opportunity. Only the retirees that have their pension set in stone can move freely.
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Trade = specialization = do more, better & cheaper

Thursday, November 09, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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It is precisely because there is so much poverty, hunger and illness that the world must be very careful not to get in the way of the things that have bettered so many lives already – the tools of trade, technology and trust, of specialization and exchange.

Matt Ridley

PS yes as long as trade is free the world will do well. Don’t interrupt what is working for 200 years. Don’t mess just because despite everybody is getting better a minority is doing even better (. That is the way it is. To close commerce and free trade we lose specialization and to do a bit of everything = poverty.



Adam Smith pointed out that there were three things that make us more prosperous, in a general sort of way: freedom to pursue our own self-interest; specialization, which he called division of labor; and freedom of trade. P. J. O'Rourke


“The ideal of an “all-round” education is out of date; it has been destroyed by the progress of knowledge.”
― Bertrand Russell, Sceptical Essays
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Some quotes i like

Wednesday, November 08, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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If you panic at all panic fast
Aaron Cohen

When you relinquish the desire to control your future, you can have more happiness.

Nicole Kidman, in The Scotsman  

“First, we seem to assume that if a lot of people are doing the same thing, they must know something we don’t.”
― Robert B. Cialdini, Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion


"Happiness is a reward – it is a consequence."
Robert Green Ingersoll


When people think the world of you, be careful with them.
Margaret Cho, Margaret Cho Blog, 09-26-05  


I am always doing that which I can not do, in order that I may learn how to do it.
Pablo Picasso (1881 - 1973)


"Never be afraid to sit awhile and think."
Lorraine Hansberry


“Toda a grande obra supõe um sacrifício; e no próprio sacrifício se encontra a mais bela e a mais valiosa das recompensas.”
Agostinho da Silva
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The FED is in trouble

Wednesday, November 08, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The FED has not much room to raise rates anymore! They don't want a flat curve for sure!



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Everything in one Graph

Friday, November 03, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Resultado de imagem para manufacturing is increasing - but manufacturing jobs are not
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I drink Tap Water !

Tuesday, October 31, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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People who appear low-income often
leave Costco with shopping carts laden
with bottled water. I drink tap water,
which is safe throughout the country.

 A Gary Shilling

 Do people that live more Japanese & Sicilians drink tap water?

 i don't know

 i will find out and report. To me i agree with Gary Shilling it's ridiculous watching poor people drinking bottled water and spending lot's of money in i-phones & internet.


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Strange Encounters in the Weekend

Monday, October 30, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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AI Artificial Intelligence A to Z

Sunday, October 29, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Imagem relacionada
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why being great is more & more difficult

Sunday, October 29, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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People have to study more & more to be on the top 50%, why ? Because just to know what is already known you have to study 30 years. if you want to invent something extra it's better to get to know what we already have

Today in the developed world the average studies per person(just to be normal) is 18 years !

 perhaps the best advice as usual is be different!


https://medium.com/the-mission/why-being-great-is-so-much-harder-than-people-realize-c91616b18bc9

Resultado de imagem para the flynn effect
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Even the French made it

Friday, October 27, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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CAC at max since 2008!

 Even the French Economy that has "too much" state but very good companies did it .....we are in a bull market





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Efficiency = do more with less

Friday, October 27, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Mauldin Economics

Fewer Miles = Fewer Drivers

There’s a classic math exercise called the Traveling Salesman Problem. The goal: find the shortest path through a series of cities before getting back to where you started.
Sounds simple, but it’s maddeningly complex. Even a short itinerary can have millions of possible routes. Finding the fastest one is hard.
Local school officials in Boston recently realized that this problem was costing them big money: to be precise, a whopping $120 million a year to transport students. Looking to save money, the school system offered a $15,000 prize to whoever could figure out the most efficient bus route map.
Two doctoral students at nearby MIT won the contest. The algorithm they designed eliminated 75 bus routes while still delivering all the students. It will save the school system $5 million a year—a whale of a return on $15,000 invested.
Part of that windfall comes from reducing bus driver positions. The new scheme saves a million bus miles per year, and fewer miles means fewer drivers.
Note how this works. Boston doesn’t need fancy new self-driving buses to cut bus driver jobs. The routing algorithm doesn’t just replace jobs; it eliminates them. Having done so in Boston, it can now do the same in other places.

Even the bus drivers who keep their jobs may not be safe for long.
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If everybody does the same.....

Friday, October 27, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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If everybody does the same thing usually it stops working

 one thing that is obvious is that the big get the most money if everybody indexes and that is not a smart allocation of capital.

 Indexing is a bit not thinking




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I am going to buy a piece of LAND today

Friday, October 20, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 2 Comments

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Today at 7 pm I am going to buy a piece on land in the south of Portugal! I had to take some money out of the stock market. This is not an investment I think it's going to be a expensive distraction. Our 3 year old kid and our dog will love it. 




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How a Bull market passes an important mark. 23,000 !

Wednesday, October 18, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Fire this weekend in Portugal

Tuesday, October 17, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Resultado de imagem para incendio em portugal outubro 2017

This is a shop from Leiria, fire with big winds, total 36 death people burned trying to escape or old people that can not move.

 Firefighters just can't do anything with this wind

 lesson: don't have trees up to your front doors
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Merge or die

Friday, October 06, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Social engineering

Friday, October 06, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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In my country Government decided to worsen the lives of some people and better other people. 

They decided things can not be what they are! we will change reality!





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Heart Exertion Test

Tuesday, October 03, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Yesterday i did my first Heart exertion test !

 I reached only 180 bpm and them i stopped, i could do more but it was enough. 20 minutes.

Conclusion: Hydratation has a role in the function of the Heart? apparently the amount of blood is affected by the level of water in blood. Too little is not good


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No new laws = good news

Friday, September 22, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Why the markets are going up despite Trump inability to pass new legislation?

However, the markets have grown deaf to the Trump noise and Tweetstorms and have focused on the comfort that, even if these initiatives are unsuccessful, regulations will not get worse… a sentiment which has provided some semblance of stability.

John Sharko & Frank Zmuda, CCI Tech 


I agree totally with this quote, if government in my country said that there would be no more new laws we would live with the ones we already have (thousands) we would have a massive rally and a pick up in investment. 

Companies don't invest because everybody is afraid of the idioticy of the politicians to try to manufacture happiness & equality.


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View from my Office

Thursday, September 21, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Sun is rising in Lisbon

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This is not normal

Thursday, September 21, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Quartz, 

 The UK’s national statistics office recently released the latest data on baby names in England and Wales. It says the following: “Oliver remains as the most popular first name given to baby boys in England and Wales in 2016.” But that’s not really true. In fact, the most common name by far is Muhammad.

When people start to have some money they want to give an education and the costs of education are huge. so people have very few kids. This is a trend difficult to fight because the gap between highly education vs unskilled work is big, however if we compute the costs of education and the marginal taxes the high incomes pay and the years not making any money i suspect the unskilled worker takes more money home in their earning career.

i don't know what is the better track?

make little money every year, pay little taxes and start earning when you are 20

vs

Big money gross+huge taxes+few years making money (start making money on the 30's)+invest 500,000 gaining an education
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Tech Stocks as Career Obsolescence Insurance

Tuesday, September 19, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Tech Stocks as Career Obsolescence Insurance

Joshua M. Brown

When US workers plow their retirement savings into the S&P 500, and in doing so they end up allocating more and more into the very technology companies that are rapidly displacing their jobs, perhaps they are doing something more than just investing.
Perhaps they are buying insurance.

This is a smart insurance, i am doing exactly this! I would short Insurance if it was easy, because people will live longer and longer and the number of accidents with tech will be less & less.

 Besides this i am trying to use tech tools and data to improve my performance in my job.


Technology, productivity and globalization have been the driving forces during my business career. In business, if you don’t lead these changes, you get fired; in politics, if you don’t fight them, you can’t get elected.
Jeff Immelt, GE shareholder letter



Sharing is good, and with digital technology, sharing is easy. 
Richard Stallman

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Some ideas for the week

Sunday, September 17, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.
Philip Stanhope, 4th Earl of Chesterfield

Where large sums of money are concerned, it is advisable to trust nobody.
Agatha Christie

If you are in sales, what’s the difference between making $100,000 and making $25,000? The main difference is learning how to handle rejection so that this fear no longer stops you from taking action. The best salesmen are those who are rejected the most.


Anthony Robbins

You will never reach your destination if you stop and throw stones at every dog that barks.
Winston Churchill

If you think good employees are expensive try bad employees!


Robots are decades away from displacing skillful human fingers willing to work for dollars a day. Robin Harding, FT


Technology, productivity and globalization have been the driving forces during my business career. In business, if you don’t lead these changes, you get fired; in politics, if you don’t fight them, you can’t get elected.
Jeff Immelt, GE shareholder letter

Part of the happiness of life consists not in fighting battles, but in avoiding them. A masterly retreat is in itself a victory.
Norman Vincent Peale 


Lastly don't forget we are in a bull market and in a Bull market you have to participate!
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If you have effective competitors, you are doing it wrong

Friday, September 15, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From the FT, Robin Harding

 Mr Buffett is completely honest about his desire to reduce competition. He just calls it by a folksy name — “widening the moat”. “I don’t want a business that’s easy for competitors. I want a business with a moat around it with a very valuable castle in the middle,” he said in 2007.He tells Berkshire Hathaway managers to widen their moat every year. The Buffett definition of good management is therefore clear. If you have effective competitors, you are doing it wrong. 


Its obviously very difficult to make money if you have competitors. If you have competitors that want to make money perhaps it's possible but if you have competitors that want market share you are doomed.

Buy your competitors if you can't kill them!


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My oldest boy just got into the Portuguese MIT

Monday, September 11, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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Difficult to get into IST (the Portuguese MIT) and even more difficult to get out in a decent amount of time! Good luck Manuel. I am proud of you.

These days kids study much more than i did on my time. Of course now i still read and study every day, to be up to date we need to learn something new every day. I think i study more and more each year. 

to study and then work is not the model anymore, now is study forever or don't study at all. Both are good ways to live.

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With UBER now you can go into a strangers car !

Wednesday, September 06, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The Atlantic, Marc De Swaan Arons

“There was a time, going back at least 70 years, when all it took to be successful in business was to make a product of good quality. If you offered good coffee, whiskey or beer, people would come to your shop and buy it. And as long as you made sure that your product quality was superior to the competition, you were pretty much set… The shift from simple products to brands has not been sudden or inevitable. You could argue that it grew out of the standardization of quality products for consumers in the middle of the 20th century, which required companies to find a new way to differentiate themselves from their competitors……….

These brands created value by lowering “search costs” for consumers. Search costs are the costs incurred by a prospective buyer in trying to determine what to buy. In the case of a consumer packaged good like canned food, toothpaste, or laundry detergent, the search cost for consumers is the cost of trying to determine the quality of the product and weighing this against price differentials prior to purchase. By eliminating this cost for the consumer, companies with a successful brand were able to charge more for their products, even while providing an improved cost/benefit offering to the consumer. The consumer could pay more for their products, because doing so reduced the search costs they were otherwise incurring…………………

But what if a new way of reducing search costs is developed? What happens to the value of these brands?
An alternate way to reduce search costs is for the distributor rather than the product manufacturer to play this role. The success of Costco is in large part built on the idea that any product sold in their stores is of high quality and is a good value. Costco leverages their scale to identify high quality, good value products and deliver them to consumers
But now the internet allows for the reduction of search costs on a global scale………………….. draining value from the Coke, Gillette and Yellow Cab brands because in each case, the online distribution of information radically reduced search costs for consumers.


Of course some brands will resist. luxury and non commoditized products.
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Holidays with no beach !

Thursday, August 31, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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So if you study law, stop immediately

Thursday, August 31, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I read this and i get the feeling as Yuval Noah Hariri mentioned in his great book Homo Deus,  that the economic value of man will go down very dramatically!

 http://amzn.to/2xzXlDg

The following points are taken from Udo Gollub, the CEO of 17 Minute Languages Facebook post...


  •  Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
  • Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world
  • Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
  • Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
  • In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
  • So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
  • Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
  • Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.
  • It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.
  • Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
  • Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
  • Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
  • Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
  • Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
  • Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
  • With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
  • Health:  The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.
  • It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
  • 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
  • Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
  • At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities.  You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
  • In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building.  By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
  • Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
  • If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
  • Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
  • Agriculture:  There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.
  • Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
  • There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
  • Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!
  • Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
  • Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
  • Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.


@Carneirao101

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