Holidays with no beach !
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So if you study law, stop immediately
I read this and i get the feeling as Yuval Noah Hariri mentioned in his great book Homo Deus, that the economic value of man will go down very dramatically!http://amzn.to/2xzXlDg
The following points are taken from Udo Gollub, the CEO of 17 Minute Languages Facebook post...
- Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
- Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world
- Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
- Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
- In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
- So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
- Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
- Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.
- It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.
- Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
- Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
- Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
- Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
- Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
- Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
- With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
- Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.
- It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
- 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
- Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
- At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
- In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
- Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
- If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
- Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
- Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.
- Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
- There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
- Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!
- Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
- Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
- Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.
@Carneirao101
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Do I see a Bloomberg Monitor?
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Nobody is in charge
There is a story (probably apocryphal, like most good stories) that when Mikhail Gorbachev tried to resuscitate the moribund Soviet economy, he sent one of his chief aids to London to find out what Thatcherism was all about, and how a capitalist system actually functioned. The hosts took their Soviet visitor on a tour of the City, of the London stock exchange and of the London School of Economics, where he had lengthy talks with bank managers, entrepreneurs and professors. After a few hours, the Soviet expert burst out: ‘Just one moment, please. Forget about all these complicated economic theories. We have been going back and forth across London for a whole day now, and there’s one thing I cannot understand. Back in Moscow, our finest minds are working on the bread supply system, and yet there are such long queues in every bakery and grocery store. Here in London live millions of people, and we have passed today in front of many shops and supermarkets, yet I haven’t seen a single bread queue. Please take me to meet the person in charge of supplying bread to London. I must learn his secret.’ The hosts scratched their heads, thought for a moment, and said: ‘Nobody is in charge of supplying bread to London.’Yuval Noah Hariri, Homo Deus
small independent decisions almost always wins vs big fat centralized decisions
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Homo-Deus-Brief-History-Tomorrow/dp/1784703931/ref=as_sl_pc_qf_sp_asin_til?tag=carneirao101-21&linkCode=w00&linkId=b01c3b33e5a03ff21ec120cf43cfa947&creativeASIN=1784703931
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I am going to rent my dog
From The NYT - Ten Navy sailors were missing and five were injured on Monday after a United States destroyer collided with an oil tanker off the coast of Singapore.Maritime collisions involving two ships are considered rare, but this was the second collision involving an American naval destroyer since June.I am going to rent SAL to the US Navy he barks everytime something gets near our door. Last week he even barked before a small night earthquake in Lisbon
Here is the new hire from the US Navy
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Holidays in Portugal
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No one plays the lottery if there are no winners
Do Tax Structures Affect Aggregate Economic Growth?
Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries,Jens Arnold, OECD, France
- 09 Oct 2008
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Why Robots will kill middle Incomes but not low incomes
Moravec's paradox is the discovery by artificial intelligence and robotics researchers that, contrary to traditional assumptions, high-level reasoning requires very little computation, but low-level sensorimotor skills require enormous computational resources. The principle was articulated by Hans Moravec, Rodney Brooks, Marvin Minsky and others in the 1980s. As Moravec writes, "it is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult level performance on intelligence tests or playing checkers, and difficult or impossible to give them the skills of a one-year-old when it comes to perception and mobility."BCA reserch wisely as usual concludes that middle incomes will be squeezed and low pay jobs will survive. Why because the computers will destroy the false specialists.
what is a False Specialist? A medical Doctor, a Management Guru, etc..... you never know if what they prescribe works or not. why ?Doctor prescribes medicine A and you get better, who knows if you were going to get better anyway.
Another example a patient with the same conditions sees 10 different medical Doctors and gets 5 or 6 different diagnostics
what is a real specialist? A plumber. Something does not work and after he leaves the House it works. A bike repair mechanic is also a real specialist.
Don't study to be a false specialist. soft education creates false specialists (Management, Economics, sociology etc....) study only hard sciences or physical skils, music, gymnastics, dancing, sports etc...
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Better Doctor's less Drugs!
Physicians from better-ranked medical schools prescribe fewer
opioids.
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Eradicating Mosquitoes what a good idea
We need to get serious about eradicating mosquitoes. This isn’t a joke; they are
unstoppable in Maine, where they are merely an annoyance. Elsewhere in the
world, they are much more than a pest; they are the most dangerous animal in the world to humans. DEET, citronella, electric
zappers, propane attractants -- at best slow some of them down. Zika, dengue
fever, malaria, yellow fever and encephalitis are why we should be making an
even greater effort to deal with this global health threat. More bats and frogs
may help, but technology is likely our best bet.
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Why prices are not going up!
The genetically engineered AquaBounty salmon shown here is about twice the size of its wild kin, although both are roughly the same age.
AquaBounty’s gruelling path from scientific discovery to market terrified others working in animal biotechnology, and almost put the company out of business on several occasions. Scientists first demonstrated the fast-growing fish in 1989. They gave it a growth-hormone gene from Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), along with genetic regulatory elements from a third species, the ocean pout (Zoarces americanus). The genetic modifications enable the salmon to produce a continuous low level of growth hormone.
https://www.nature.com/news/first-genetically-engineered-salmon-sold-in-canada-1.22116
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winner takes all
when we have a single currency in the end all the cars will be manufactured in the best place to produce cars, the wine will be produced in the best place to ...................i think all the factories will end up in Germany
what to do? Turism & real estate in the south of Europe
In the graph below from the great research service Gave-Kal we can see exactly this. without devaluation the best guy will keep winning.
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It's called Socialism
In a per capita measure growth in Europe goes pari-pasu with the US. See the BCA research excellent graph.What is very different between the US & Europe is who spends the GDP, in Europe taxes are huge and the state does the spending for the people. It's called Socialism. In the graph below you can see that my country Portugal has one of the highest taxes in the world.
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I don't Buy into Inflation !
The Bureau of Labor Statistics accounts for the costs of
home ownership by assuming that homeowners rent their
houses from themselves at current market rates, even
though few homeowners ever consider themselves to be
doing so. In recent years, rents have leaped as new
households have rented and not bought their abodes, as
discussed earlier.
This has pushed up rent costs, and in June compared to a
year earlier, this Owner’s Equivalent Rent number jumped
3.2% (Chart 30). Excluding it, the CPI rose not the reported
1.6% but a mere 0.9% year over year. Nevertheless, the
fictitious Owner’s Equivalent Rent component is likely to
grow much slower in the future.
A Gary Shilling INSIGHT August
Everything is going to get cheaper & cheaper because Technological advance say so.
Look at Agriculture Commodities Index
Long Treasuries is advised
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Francisco Carneiro
Lisbon Family Office
There is always a Bull market in the World
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