Best investment = Farmland

Monday, May 28, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Best investment in recent has been farmland

why ? because you cannot do more it's not like Cryptocurrencies that can multiply overnight

nothing kills a business more than new competition / offer

however besides trees i see agriculture without land soon with hydroponics. i would not bet in this trend forever. as i said only trees are safe

Data obsessed

Wednesday, May 23, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: ABOUTME

The warren Buffett strategy

Tuesday, May 22, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: ECONOMICS, POLITICS

low vol stocks + leverage = Beat the market






From Wikipedia

The low-volatility anomaly^{[Note 1]} is the observation that portfolios of low-volatility stocks have higher risk-adjusted returns than portfolios with high-volatility stocks in most markets studied. The capital asset pricing model made some predictions of return versus beta. First, return should be a linear function of beta, and nothing else. Also, the return of a stock with average beta should be the average return of stocks (this is easy to show given the first assumption). Second, the intercept should be equal to the risk-free rate. Then the slope can be computed from these two points. Almost immediately these predictions were challenged on the grounds that they are empirically not true. Studies find that the correct slope is either less than predicted, not significantly different from zero, or even negative. Also, additional factors are predictive of return independent of beta.^[1]
Black proposed a theory where there is a zero-beta return which is different from the risk-free return. This fits the data better since the zero-beta return is different from the risk-free return. It still presumes, on principle, that there is higher return for higher beta.
The low-volatility anomaly has now been found in the United States over an 85-year period and in global markets for at least the past 20 years.^{[when?][2][3][4]}
Research challenging CAPM's underlying assumptions about risk has been mounting for decades.^[5] One challenge was in 1972, when Jensen, Black and Scholes published a study showing what CAPM would look like if one could not borrow at a risk-free rate. Their results indicated that the relationship between beta and realized return was flatter than predicted by CAPM.^{[6][Note 2]}
Shortly after, Robert Haugen and A. James Heins produced a working paper titled “On the Evidence Supporting the Existence of Risk Premiums in the Capital Market”.^{[Note 3]} Studying the period from 1926 to 1971, they concluded that "over the long run stock portfolios with lesser variance in monthly returns have experienced greater average returns than their ‘riskier’ counterparts".^[

yesterday amazing night

Tuesday, May 22, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

TAGS: ABOUTME

Aside from politics it was a great night. Roger waters says we need to resist! i don't want to resist i just want to enjoy what i already have it's enough. when i was young i just wanted to have a Porsche 911 but now i just want to have some time to ride my bike, read and play with my 3 year old kid! ahahah i can live without a 911 easy

Roger Waters

Monday, May 21, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: ABOUTME

Children in father absent homes are four times as likely to be poor.

Sunday, May 20, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I guess all the data below comes from the idea that children without rules & some sort of authority have a chance of doing badly in life. many mothers are a bit friends of their children and have a style of education a bit erratic. A no is not a real no. A rule is not a rule and a education with no clear boundaries. But not all mothers are like this. i know a lot of people that do well with a single mother education. 




Children in father absent homes are four times as likely to be poor.

Jordan B Peterson



The number of children who grow up without a father in the home in the United States has reached concerning levels. There exists a considerable research base that suggests that children raised in households lacking a father experience psychosocial problems with greater frequency than children with a father in the home (Allen & Daly, 2007). These problems have been found to extend into adolescence and adulthood and include an increased risk of substance use, depression, suicide, poor school performance, and contact with the criminal justice system (Allen
& Daly, 2007). Lack of paternal involvement has also been associated with a higher likelihood of being bullied and experiencing abuse (Allen & Daly, 2007). Educating uninvolved fathers and helping them play a more active role in their child’s life could benefit both families and communities. To bring this into focus, the present article aims to highlight ten adverse outcomes that may result from the absence of a father in a child’s life: (1) Perceived abandonment, (2) attachment issues, (3) child abuse, (4) childhood obesity, (5) criminal justice involvement, (6) gang involvement, (7) mental health issues, (8) poor school performance, (9) poverty and homelessness; and (10) substance use.

Transportugal race 2018

Tuesday, May 15, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: MOUNTAINBIKE, SPORTS

This year I finished 8th with an average speed of 21,3 km/h (best ever for me)
i raced for 42 hours
The winner Pedro Simas from my team made 37 hours for the 906 km mostly off road
this year i wasn't so skinny but i felt strong. i started with 76 kg and in 2012 i started with 70kg.(Froome weight is  69kg)
The year i can be strong & skinny i will win!
no flu 
no gastric problems
I started with a lower back injury (From the Pilates class) that plagued the first two stages. after that i took big pain killers and no more pain. 
i broke one wheel spoke before the start of the first stage (warming up) and two spokes at the 7th stage. i was lucky both times the wheel keep working more or less ok
I am a very good endurance machine but i am losing peak speed
on stage 5th below i did 3rd place. My best stage ever. It was the longest stage of this year race with 188k. This shows that i can do well in Ultra long races but i have no chance with faster riders in short distances. on this stage i was alone most of the distance just pedaling steady. I ended up in 3rd i put some time in my competitors.
How can i do better without training long hours ? I will let that to my coach Nuno Sabido.
The top guys in the classification ride daily and i can't do that. sometimes i can do some spinning at night before going to bed. but i can't and hopefully i won't ride outside daily like a professional. only if i stopped working and i don't want that.
what is the solution to ride fast without ultra long hours of training?
I race with a hard tail bike. i have to figure out if the lower back pain would disappear with a suspension bike (1 kg more). All the winners of Transportugal rode with hardtail, no one with suspension ever won this race.

i am happy to take advice