Boat sharing

Thursday, June 28, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Few boat owners make regular use of their expensive assets.

On average french boats are used 10 days a year and the 12 million american recreational boats are off 2 weeks a year.

The Economist

i guess everybody use the boats at the same time! weekends but nevertheless the sharing economy is going to make a big difference here. if you have weekdays free why not rent instead of buying. You can rent where you are you don't have to move your boat to your holiday destination.

i don't see inflation anywhere!

Image result for sharing economy boats

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Can there be a lasting bull market if banks do not participate?

Wednesday, June 27, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


This is the title of a great GaveKal piece by Louis Gave 

DB is down again today 

why banks are underperforming big time? i guess the most lucrative parts of the business, trading , market making were shut down by the regulators. On top of that the costs of regulation compliance etc... just keep rising.

On top of that when the interest banks charge companies is much higher that the GDP growth rate there is going to be trouble ahead. In Europe many countries the costs of financing debt are higher than GDP growth Italy, Greece, etc.....






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“How To Build A Company Where The Best Ideas Win”, Ray Dalio

Tuesday, June 26, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

“How To Build A Company Where The Best Ideas Win”, Ray Dalio





In weak companies politics win. In strong companies best ideas do
- Steve Jobs




Most companies do things just because it's the way they do things. No one knows why!

in my view the way to do well is to use data/information and as Isaac  Asimov explains in his Foundation series.

The premise is that with the use of statistics you can gather up all prior history and use it to predict the future.

Bridgewater is not a quant shop but they definitely use data extensively.

when you use data to figure out what to do how does it work in practice?

a)you find people who were successful and see what they have done. if there is a pattern do it.... If the sample is short don't use but if you find thousands of people in history who have done something perhaps ......it works 


b)you find some sign that usually precedes x if you find that sign you know x is probably coming soon again the sample is key


c)you find something that has a probability of 60% should you do it? depends if it's only one bet i wouldn't do, but if you can do thousands of small bets with a 60% probability i would win for sure. i would not play russian roulette because despite having very good odds.....


most companies just do what they do without knowing why, just try to implement the system where the best ideas win how do Bridgewater do it

one very interesting feature of his company is the weight each person opinion has.

if you have been right recentely your opinion is worth more than the next guy

One system that can work is to put a very smart guy as a CEO and he listens to lot's of people and just decides at the end trying to figure out what is the best idea. It doesn't make  you the best company but you could survive

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People don't care!

Monday, June 25, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments




Saturday my wife was stuck in Nice (She attended the Cannes media week ). Strikes all over France, once finally inside the plane the airport handling guys hit the plane with the stairs and they had to go back to a hotel because the plane was damaged. Of course it takes hours to embark and disembark and to get the Hotel Voucher. Next day no food service because of another strike and the plane stayed in the Tarmac for 2 hours without water waiting for the controllers to give the green light. Why do European equities underperform? Because there is not a culture of delivering a service. People (public service) don’t care about the final client. I will short Europe anytime. Not all Europe UK is not like that and Switzerland too.

Sometimes I tell my kids it’s easy to do well in life, why because 90% of the people don’t care they don’t care the way they put dishes in the washing machine, they don’t care the way they make their bed, they don’t care the way they park the car. Lots of people need someone that comes after to fix the job.  If you care you are in the top 10% just like that. In Nice they don’t care.



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What is wrong here?

Monday, June 25, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

I wasn't expecting Italy to export almost the same as japan or France and more than the UK.

Italy is not the sick man of the world at least not the north part of Italy





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One lesson from David F Swansen

Thursday, June 21, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments



Many years ago in 2004 BPI invited the great David Swansen from Yale Endowment to speak to our clients. one of the messages that he left was this

ILliquidity accompanies several characteristics prized by serius investors. Less information tends to be available on illiquid securities, creating an opportunity to be rewarded for uncovering nuggets of data relevant to valuation.

David Swansen, page 91 of Pioneering Portfolio management

Apparently in the Hedge Fund area the less liquid funds perform better. why? because they can do things that the liquid ones can't do

what 

buy less liquid an obscure investments




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QE is officially over

Tuesday, June 19, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

After 5 years of buying now the central banks are starting to sell.I guess it will take some time for the effects to appear. Probably in EM first.




Graph: From Ibex Capital, London

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i won my class, over 50 and finished 4th overhall

Monday, June 18, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


Last saturday i finished the longest mountain bike race in Portugal
I won the over 50 years class and finished 4th overhall. 4th overall is very good. My time was 11hours and 20 minutes of racin. two pee stops.
The start was in the border with spain at 6 am saturday.
i had dinner with the rest of the Team Europcar in Serpa while we watched Portugal Spain for the world cup
I was supposed to drink just one glass of red wine but ended up drinking 3 with the emotion of the game. The dinner was pork with rice. Very good rice. i can figure out a restaurant by the quality of the rice. Molho Bico in Serpa is 5 star.
We walked a bit in Serpa and drank a mint tea and by 10 i was in bed in Serpa
No wifi!
I didn't brought any reading material so i closed the light and pretend to sleep because i was going to wake at 3.45 am!
wake at 3.45
cold shower no hot water in Estalagem São Gens (if you can avoid don't go)
they left us coffee and one yogurt for breakfast
i brought 2 bananas from home
we were at the start line at 5.15. i did a decent warm up
start shot at 6 am sharp still poor visibility
first two hours were fast we passed some rivers i always carry my bike. Better get my feet wet than the chain.
at food stop one at km 65 i was with Luis from BTT fátima, we were  5th and 6th. I put a bit of oil and off i went no water or food.I lost 1 minute.
i rode with Luis and we catch Vitor Gomes and Claudio Rilhó after crossing rio Guadiana. Luis and Claudio are younger but Vitor is also over 50. He is my biggest competitor in all the ultra races.
before km 124 at food stop 2, ENTRADAS,  Vitor asked the group if we want to stop to pee i said no. he stopped and i never saw him again. to ride alone in the hot is crazy
at km 124, water  refill  and eat some watermelon and two bananas and put some more oil in the chain.
off we went me , Luis and Claudio. Luis was the strongest i played the weakest almost never in front. We rode together until km 167 Garvão. Luis said we was going to stop a bit  to rest (not a good sign).
off we went, Luis didn't stopped after all,  after a water and food refill. They had ice and i put a bit in my camelback. Temperature after 6 hours of racing was over 35 celsius!
in the climb before Santa Clara dam Luis stopped and i never saw him again. i rode with Claudio until km 206 Santa Clara a velha but the last 6 km were difficult because i was without water (i said nothing to him)
At the food stop 4 we were 4 min off the front of the race with Nuno caeiro and a spanish guy. i was very tired. i ate and drank. i drank 2 cups of cold coke, some watermellon and  off we went after washing my face and glasses.
my legs were off i let Claudio escape in the next climb. I was in 4th with 30 k to go but totally empty.
i thought i could not complete the distance.
i just rode and looking back to see when the other guys would catch me
where were Vitor, Luis and the rest of the peloton where was Sergio Costa that always finishes in front of me.
in the end no one catch me and after crossing the line i had to wait almost 30 minutes for Luis to cross the line. I was dead but the others were also in bad shape. Conclusion when you are empty always think the others are even worse! And sometimes they are!

The picture of the 50 years podium (below) was taken just with me because i wanted to go home and the rest of the field didn't had crossed the line yet. They gave me my prize and went home !

it was a good day, only some 50 people at the start line this is not an easy race so we never have thousands of people racing. 4th is ok if i didn't raced those 15 km without water perhaps i could do a bit more. Perhaps i could ride with Claudio until the finish.

Water is the most important thing in life if you don't have it you only think about it

I can't walk properly i hope tomorrow i am back to normal.





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Tomorrow is the big one 240 K off road

Friday, June 15, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Tomorrow i will do one of the longest off road mountain bike races in Portugal. We will be not more than 50 people at the start. The winner will do 10 hours i think.

I am still with a bit of pain in the lower back so i am going to start slow i will let the front group to run from me. After km 167 in Garvão(food point) if my legs are still ok i will try to catch them all.....

we will start at 6 am! it's going to be a long day.






Zonas de Abastecimento
ZA1- Km 65 – Serpa
ZA2 – Km 124 – Entradas
ZA3 – Km 167 – Garvão
ZA4 – Km 206 – St. Clara a Velha

Pontos de Água
PA1 – Km 105 – Amendoeira do Campo
PA2 – Km 112 – Corte Cobres
PA3 – Km 152 – Ourique Gare
Cafés
Km 87 – Café Anaís
Km 153 – Café Primavera
Km 153 – Café Locomotiva
Km 159 – Café B. M. Rocha
Km 193 – Café Paraíso – C. Brique


Partida: Vila Verde de Ficalho
Chegada: Praia do Carvalhal – Brejão
Extensão Total: Aprox. 244Km
Desnível acumulado total: Aprox. 3678m



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Efficiency = prices go to marginal cost

Friday, June 15, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

i took this picture in the tube in London
in Portugal a pair of bifocal Glasses still costs 400 euros 
this will end soon !



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