Local Purchasing Power shows relative
purchasing power in buying goods and services in a given city for the average
wage in that city. If domestic purchasing power is 40, this means that the
inhabitants of that city with the average salary can afford to buy on an
average 60% less goods and services than New York City residents with an
average salary.
Tuesday 30 October 2018
Best place to live in the South of Europe 2018 stats
Madrid, in Madrid people get 96% of things an average NY can get. In Greece life is difficult
The highest Petrol Prices around the world
why countries like Italy or Greece that are poor have so high Gaz prices? The governments in these countries want to make life miserable to their citizens. most of the price is taxes.
Notes for Tuesday
Notes for Tuesday:
0.“If cash flows and expected growth have not changed over the month, the price of equity risk has jumped from 5.38% at the start of the month to the 5.89% on October 26, putting it at the high end of equity risk premiums in the last decade.
Damodaran
0.“If cash flows and expected growth have not changed over the month, the price of equity risk has jumped from 5.38% at the start of the month to the 5.89% on October 26, putting it at the high end of equity risk premiums in the last decade.
1.From Bloomberg:
Angela Merkel’s announcement yesterday
marks the last chapter of her long domination of German politics. She is
stepping down as the head of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union and says she
won’t run for re-election. What’s less certain is whether she will see out her
full term as chancellor, which might run until 2021, and whether the country’s
political center can survive without her.
Nothing new
here Schroeder left the party in 2004 and stayed as chancellor.
3.From Clifwater Weekly
(Brazilian Macro Manager #1) Long, then Short BRL: Far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro is widely expected to defeat his left-wing opponent Fernando Haddad in the nation’s final presidential vote on Sunday. Bolsonaro’s win will lead to a nice bounce, and which will be nice entry point to short BRL. Bolsonaro’s honeymoon period won’t last long – he’s political unsavvy, congress remains very fragmented, and Brazil faces considerable fiscal headwinds. This will ultimately lead to downward pressure on the BRL and Brazilian equities
4.Price of Power in Europe
My country Portugal despite being one of the poorest have one of the highest prices of Power in Europe, 0,22 per kwh above the European average 0,2!
Monday 29 October 2018
I don’t see a recession anytime soon
in 1987 the year i started working in the stock exchange doing research stock's (S&P) were 19% above the 200 day moving average, a bit too much. after the crash they were 28% below the average.
After than the Bull market continued until 2000 with a big scare in 1998.
what is happening now?
I don’t see a recession anytime soon so I see this market correction as a “correction” and not a Bear market. We were 7% above the 200 day moving average at the end of September and now we are 5% below the 200 day moving average on the S&P. Is the correction done? i don't know but some steam was liberated from the stock market. we are ready for the next leg up.
After than the Bull market continued until 2000 with a big scare in 1998.
what is happening now?
I don’t see a recession anytime soon so I see this market correction as a “correction” and not a Bear market. We were 7% above the 200 day moving average at the end of September and now we are 5% below the 200 day moving average on the S&P. Is the correction done? i don't know but some steam was liberated from the stock market. we are ready for the next leg up.
my vision. chop until the elections and then we resume the Bull Market.
When the FED is hiking ok but when FED lowers careful.....
From Bull Market's
The stock market tends to go up 1-6 months after the Federal Reserve stops hiking interest rates. Here are the S&P 500’s forward returns after the last rate hike in each rate hike cycle.
I cound not get the numbers of what happen to stocks after the first cut in interest rates but i know it's down big time. normally the FED is trying so save the market and the economy . in the first 6 monhs after the first cut get out of the market
conclusion:
1. during the FED hikes OK
2.After the FED stop hiking until the first cut Dangerous but could be OK
3.in the first 6 months after the first cut . Stay far away from stocks
Thursday 25 October 2018
A bottom in the next few days if it doesn't happen.......
In short, the US investment environment is getting worse, but only on
the margin. It is still conducive to growth and rising asset values. In other
words, the situation has gone from great to good. And I’m not sure that the
situation will go from good to bad as quickly as this month’s market move
suggests.
Will Denyer , Gave Kal
i think we are in a Bull market and in a Bull we have to buy the dips, we are in a dip and sentiment has not made new lows. We have conditions for a bottom in the next few days if it doesn't happen we have to consider Plan B.
Will Denyer , Gave Kal
i think we are in a Bull market and in a Bull we have to buy the dips, we are in a dip and sentiment has not made new lows. We have conditions for a bottom in the next few days if it doesn't happen we have to consider Plan B.
Thursday 18 October 2018
Being ethical still pays but do well for your customers it's even better
From the great Gave Kal service
The world’s business leaders have suddenly been stricken with a conscience.
After the disappearance and suspected murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi from the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul, executives who’d been lined up for the “Davos in the Desert”1 Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh this month are getting cold feet.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon and his peer at Blackstone Group LP Steve Schwarzman, along with BlackRock Inc.’s Larry Fink, Uber Technologies Inc.’s Dara Khosrowshahi and Richard Branson have all sent in cancellations. Credit Suisse Group AG CEO Tidjane Thiam and HSBC Holdings Plc’s John Flint became the latest to shun the forum on Tuesday..................................
The double standard is hardly surprising. Making money has required a certain flexibility on moral issues ever since Joseph taught Pharaoh how to profit off a seven-year famine. Being ethical in business is difficult because being unethical is often lucrative.
Of course it pays being ethical but the best for a company for a corporate leader is not to fake he is concerned about politics, image, minorities, etc....the most important thing is to do a great service to your clients, to be of service to constantly improve the service and product. Amazon is a great company not only because they are ethical but because they really care about their client and their service. Lot's of companies care about minorities and they don't care about their customers. they will disappear. to go or not to go to Saudi Arabia does't matter. The best for Saudi Arabia was to have the great service of Amazon or Facebook or Google to all their citizens. That would change Saudi Arabia more than skip a conference!
In 1939, Franklin Roosevelt famously dismissed
reservations about Nicaragua’s brutal dictator Anastazio Somoza with the
comment “he may be a sonofabitch, but he’s our sonofabitch.” In the world of
foreign policy realpolitik, to a large degree FDR’s doctrine still holds true.
Witness, for example, the verbal contortions that US president Donald Trump and
secretary of state Mike Pompeo have been forced to pull off in recent days in
order to condemn Saudi Arabia, but not too much...
from BloombergThe world’s business leaders have suddenly been stricken with a conscience.
After the disappearance and suspected murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi from the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul, executives who’d been lined up for the “Davos in the Desert”1 Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh this month are getting cold feet.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon and his peer at Blackstone Group LP Steve Schwarzman, along with BlackRock Inc.’s Larry Fink, Uber Technologies Inc.’s Dara Khosrowshahi and Richard Branson have all sent in cancellations. Credit Suisse Group AG CEO Tidjane Thiam and HSBC Holdings Plc’s John Flint became the latest to shun the forum on Tuesday..................................
The double standard is hardly surprising. Making money has required a certain flexibility on moral issues ever since Joseph taught Pharaoh how to profit off a seven-year famine. Being ethical in business is difficult because being unethical is often lucrative.
Of course it pays being ethical but the best for a company for a corporate leader is not to fake he is concerned about politics, image, minorities, etc....the most important thing is to do a great service to your clients, to be of service to constantly improve the service and product. Amazon is a great company not only because they are ethical but because they really care about their client and their service. Lot's of companies care about minorities and they don't care about their customers. they will disappear. to go or not to go to Saudi Arabia does't matter. The best for Saudi Arabia was to have the great service of Amazon or Facebook or Google to all their citizens. That would change Saudi Arabia more than skip a conference!
Wednesday 17 October 2018
New all time highs before the elections?
Tuesday 16 October 2018
Monday 15 October 2018
Plan for this week
Big picture ----we are in a bull market until probably 2019/2020 recession! in 1999 Nasdaq doubled in the last days of the bull. usually we can make a lot of money from the end of the party when the not so smart money finally enters the party
good scenario
a lower low this week without fear / sentiment divergence would mark the bottom and we would have a V recovery after that. We are entering the best time of the year for equities.
bad scenario
the market just keeps going up without volume or power
good scenario
a lower low this week without fear / sentiment divergence would mark the bottom and we would have a V recovery after that. We are entering the best time of the year for equities.
bad scenario
the market just keeps going up without volume or power
Friday 12 October 2018
What is logic?
sell bonds & cash and put a bit more money into equities, probably Tech
when ? My guess, yes ut's a guess we will have one or two more down days
From GaveKal
The S&P 500 is down almost -7% in six days, the biggest drawdown since the -10% decline in the first quarter. It is now below its 200-day moving average, for the first time since April 2nd. Will it bounce back, or is a US equity bear market now upon us? I would bet on the former, but not too aggressively.
when ? My guess, yes ut's a guess we will have one or two more down days
From GaveKal
The S&P 500 is down almost -7% in six days, the biggest drawdown since the -10% decline in the first quarter. It is now below its 200-day moving average, for the first time since April 2nd. Will it bounce back, or is a US equity bear market now upon us? I would bet on the former, but not too aggressively.
Thursday 11 October 2018
We are in a Bull market !
Monday 8 October 2018
There is no premium for doing the easy things.
Yale Invests in Crypto Fund
I have a little money in Bitcoin just in case David nails it again.
About Yale the best endowment in the last 20 years i met David in Lisbon in 2004 and his message was clear. If you can go for iliquidity, just do it, because it has a premium. Target equities and iliquid assets and you will be rewarded.
I should listen to him and just execute.
to do shortcuts (cut corners) like liquid alternatives with daily liquidity highly regulated and available to retail it so easy that it can't work. There is no premium for doing the easy things. It's just like that! sorry.
From Bloomberg
Yale University, the Ivy League school that has invested in everything from Puerto Rican bonds to timber in New Hampshire, is getting into the market for cryptocurrencies.
....
Swensen’s endorsement of crypto assets is significant because he’s considered a pioneer in institutional investing, having managed one of the most-watched and best-performing college endowments for three decades. Many other endowments have sought to replicate his investment model, which favors a longer time horizon and committing capital to more illiquid assets, including private equity.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-05/yale-is-said-to-invest-in-crypto-fund-that-raised-400-million
Tuesday 2 October 2018
Rutina
Yo tuve la suerte de estar bien preprado para alguien como Botvinnik gracias a mi madre Klara. Mi madre herdó un estricto sentido de la importancia del orden y la rutina de su propria familia. Para mí, las cosas sencillamente funcionaban así, y simpre me sentí cómodo con este regimen. Dormir, comer, ir a la escuela, estudiar y divertirse, todo formaba parte de un horario.
Gary Kasparov
what can i say more, a routine makes everything easy. if you make your bed everyday you start thinking that is the way things are and it costs you zero. you just do it . Routine defines what you are.Choose a rutine that is good for you and just do it over and over again
i suggest 4 that really help me
sleep plenty
walk everyday or do some sport
silence your cell phone
read everyday
Gary Kasparov
what can i say more, a routine makes everything easy. if you make your bed everyday you start thinking that is the way things are and it costs you zero. you just do it . Routine defines what you are.Choose a rutine that is good for you and just do it over and over again
i suggest 4 that really help me
sleep plenty
walk everyday or do some sport
silence your cell phone
read everyday
Monday 1 October 2018
What worries Gary Shilling Now?
From Market Watch
“The ultimate thing that brings down financial markets is excess leverage … So, you look where’s the big leverage, and right now I think it’s in emerging markets.”
Shilling is particularly worried about the $8 trillion in dollar-denominated emerging-market corporate and sovereign debt, especially as the U.S. dollar rises along with interest rates. “The problem is as the dollar increases,” he said, “it gets tougher and tougher for them to service [that debt] because it takes more and more of their local currency to do so.” Of that, $249 billion must be repaid or refinanced through next year, Bloomberg reported.
What can be added to the happiness of a man who is in health, out of debt, and has a clear conscience?
Adam Smith
“The ultimate thing that brings down financial markets is excess leverage … So, you look where’s the big leverage, and right now I think it’s in emerging markets.”
Shilling is particularly worried about the $8 trillion in dollar-denominated emerging-market corporate and sovereign debt, especially as the U.S. dollar rises along with interest rates. “The problem is as the dollar increases,” he said, “it gets tougher and tougher for them to service [that debt] because it takes more and more of their local currency to do so.” Of that, $249 billion must be repaid or refinanced through next year, Bloomberg reported.
What can be added to the happiness of a man who is in health, out of debt, and has a clear conscience?
Adam Smith