People don't like to die..........

Sunday, September 29, 2019 Francisco 0 Comments

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we are not in optimism , i see the bull market to live some more years 

 i know we are on the verge of a recession
i know 
we might have a correction if it's a mild recession. In my view there are so bad news that the market is not at the top for sure 
Elisabeth warren = communism
China trade war (Trump is right of course)
but despite all this i see signs of hope

 advance decline line at a new high
we are in a trading range for 2 years
I spoke with a great Oncologist in Vancouver this weekend (perhaps one of the best in the world) There are breakthroughs in biotech it's not the future is the present , it's now. we will see an explosion in Pharma stocks because people don't like to die
Finally there are several signs that point the market to fall and it refuses to fall! To me this is bullish. 
out the trading range for 2020

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I Hope Elisabeth Warren is my follower

Saturday, September 28, 2019 Francisco 0 Comments

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I took this graph from Twitter there is no source nothing!But if you see the dates in the bottom it must be true. The good old days were not good at all. The world is  getting better by the day less wars, less hunger and living longer. People just got to get busy...

 I spent this weekend in the US in a trading seminar . Someone smart told me something. Elisabeth Warren is weak and Americans don't vote in weak people, fragile and nervous. 

 I hope Elisabeth is not my follower after all




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When QE stops yields fall

Wednesday, September 25, 2019 Francisco 0 Comments

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how QE works?

https://thoughtmeme.blogspot.com/2019/09/quantitative-easing-1-0-1.html
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Crypto Yesterday

Wednesday, September 25, 2019 Francisco 0 Comments

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ahahah Loved this Novogratz video. It can go to USD 6,000 and then up to 30,000. That would be the normal.



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Never short a dull market

Monday, September 23, 2019 Francisco 0 Comments

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we have plenty of bad news these days but despite that the marker refuses to sell off 

 lot of Bears

 what to do?

 i guess participate 

 i know that President Trump does not want to market to go up a lot now! He wants the market to go up big one year from now
I know that if Elisabeth Warren has the minimal chance to win the market will crash. Nothing worse than an communist for America
I know the market is to far from 200 day moving average so it's difficult to have a big up move

 however i think the market can exit this consolidation zone for good, I am cautious starting to buy

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Don't jump the Gun

Friday, September 20, 2019 Francisco 0 Comments

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There are some signals that suggest we are entering in a Recession. However the market is near all time highs. My view has always been that the falling market precipitates the recession and not the opposite. Fortunately we have a tool to tell us what the stock market is going to do. the stock market 
yes the stock market is the best predictor of the stock market 
Yes it looks a bit circular but there are signs than precede dangerous markets and those are not all present. As Charles Gave of Gave kal says the only thing you have to do is to find out if there are more fools or more money.

 To me I still see more money than fools. Usually the marked sells off after the FOMC meeting and that did not happening. Let's give the market a chance. We are in range since jan 2018 perhaps after a difficult period we will get an easy period.

 I am in NY and NY is not the world but

 terrible traffic
i rented a city bike USD 12 a day and even with a bike i can not circulate in midtown
doesn't look like a recession
Supermarkets don't sell wine!
in restaurants wine is crazy expensive
GAP stores disappeared from midtown. No more toys shops too. Real estate too expensive to sell jeans
NY is different from Europe people have lunch during lunch time meetings. That is a very useful habit.
Full of events after hours with my hedge fund friends from NY.
beautiful city





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A day in NY

Wednesday, September 18, 2019 Francisco 1 Comments

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I spend the day in a great Hedge fund conference in Stamford
at the end of the day i was invited by a friend for a boat sunset ride!
amazing
notes

 the houses in the Connecticut water line are like palaces. i wonder who want to live there! not my wife!
In USA everything is old but works great (trains etc.....). newark airport is a mess but works
the price of a data card for the cell phone is USD 75 too much 
spend 2 hours clearing border/passports 
I tried the train to Penn station. better than the cab. 
If you have nothing better to do read John Corey (Nelson DEmile_) novels the best ever.
I saw a friend that start Keto diet i could not recognize him (I need to be more radical)
Today i will have a day full of meetings in NY with sunshine . what else do i need.
I plan to rent city bikes to move around
I went to Whole Foods love it all. 
Tomorrow i will report more 


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What usually happens after a FOMC Meeting?

Wednesday, September 18, 2019 Francisco 0 Comments

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The market rallies into the meetings and then .......BUM or at least cools a bit

 If the FED does not cut 25 b.p. it's going to be fireworks. 
From Gary Savage weekend report

 Those red arrows are FOMC meetings. As you can see most of the time the market rises into an FOMC meeting and then drops afterwards. 



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How to trade news 101

Tuesday, September 17, 2019 Francisco 0 Comments

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I read this  from  Gary Savage service

 Of course the big question is whether this a game changer for oil? I really don’t have a good answer at this moment. I’m always hesitant to assume a news event will drive markets for anything other than a short term move. Most of the time the world recovers and goes back to doing what it was doing before the event. I suppose it will depend on how long the market thinks it will take for the damage to be repaired and the plants come back on line.

 News does not drive markets or prices; it is the markets that drive news 

 If you really like to trade news do this

 take note of the high and low of the first hour after the news 

 after if the market stay 15 minutes above the high or low put a position on the direction of the breakout with a stop in the other side 

 i believe this is a low quality trade.

 don't trade news, it does not work 


 best strategy buy a boring market that is going up
sell a boring market that with no reason is going down. these are quantity trades when no one knows why the market is moving
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Quantitative Easing 1 0 1

Friday, September 13, 2019 Francisco 0 Comments

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I think it works like this

 Start QE, Central Banks buy bonds,more liquidity a bit more inflation economy gets stronger, PMI rise lower Bond Prices higher rates 

 QE ends. stop buying bonds less inflation lower PMI's, higher Bond prices lower yields

 QE is not good to  bonds it's good for stocks
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Momentum traders likely had their worst day in a decade

Wednesday, September 11, 2019 Francisco 0 Comments

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A sudden shift from momentum stocks to value plays could mean investors are betting on higher interest rates.





From Sentiment Trader.com



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What is my take!

 Don't bet in the reflation
Technology is deflationary
if there is no war there is deflation
we are in the brink of a slowdown if we are not already in recession
There is a pull to zero because there is more money than opportunities
JCP is not the future for sure

 But don't be fooled, this rotation can be nasty, you need to survive this rotation. In order to do that i am recommending 5 things to my clients

 1.if you panic panic fast
2."Be sure you put your feet in the right place, then stand firm"
  Abraham Lincoln
3.Do a shopping list , if MA (Mastercard)  trades at 250 you buy one unit if it trades at 200 you buy another unit etc...
4.Don't buy JCP it's a lousy future. I have been there 
finally these rotations precede market crashes or Breakouts. In the past mostly good times for the market.

PS Do your list. these opportunities are rare.



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Trump needs to put the market down asap

Friday, September 06, 2019 Francisco 0 Comments

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If Trump does not put the markets down the FED is not going to CUT 50b.p.

 Trump doesn't need the market rallying now

 he needs the market rallying in 1 year

 how to do it

 prevent a big rally now, get the FED to cut now enjoy big rally next year



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