My predictions for 2021 !

Thursday, December 31, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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I don't have a clue about what is going to happen in 2021 but I agree with Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers warns stock bubble will grow in 2021: "I've seen this movie before" - Marketplace

2020 was a very good year for the markets bitcoin exploded higher so did tech

Covid  depressed and killed a lot of people but excess mortality is really low. The amount of people that died in 2020 is similar to other years. Not a big change , of course Covid exists but apparently causes similar overall deaths than other causes in other years.

Covid is not the main cause of death in 2021 by far.

The people that claim 2020 is one of the worst year ever are wrong.

Some people were hurt by the precautions taken by the governments and that is unfair. The government should not play God. government is not God should not condemn some people to poverty to eventually save someone else etc...

My lessons from 2020 are 3

1.The triumph of the optimists. Yes it pays to be optimist as usual. when Covid hit there was reason to sell to be cautions but the markets turned up and there was time to make a lot of money until the end of the year. I was too cautions and wrong.

2.Act when you have a buy signal. bitcoin gave me a buy signal in July as well as Gold. I bought both Bitcoin worked very well, Gold not so well

3.Try to be fit. Even in Covid the fit people did much better than the overweight etc...

what to do in 2021 

1.walk everyday, move, be in shape

2. optimists live longer & live better


The optimists and the pessimists: I have been studying them for the past twenty-five years. The defining characteristic of pessimists is that they tend to believe bad events will last a long time, will undermine everything they do, and are their own fault. The optimists, who are confronted with the same hard knocks of this world, think about misfortune in the opposite way. They tend to believe defeat is just a temporary setback, that its causes are confined to this one case. The optimists believe defeat is not their fault: Circumstances, bad luck, or other people brought about. Such people are unfazed by defeat. Confronted by a bad situation, they perceive it as a challenge and try harder.

Learned Optimism: Martin Seligman on Happiness, Depression, and the Meaningful Life



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Europe in one Chart

Monday, December 28, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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I don't know what is wrong with Europe but we are at 2000 level. yes some people might be better than they were in 2000 but on average no progress was made.

Europe missed the entertainment business, Netflix etc... 

Europe missed the content

Europe missed music

Europe missed the education battle

Europe misses the software boom

Europe missed innovation , missed the new thing

Europe has the best Government programs, the best subsidies for movies , the best subsidies for research , the best goverment , the biggest goverment etc....

Europe has the biggest taxes in the world

Europe has no babies

in europe is very difficult for the average person to live.





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If we want to curb carbon emissions there are only two ways....

Monday, December 28, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 If we want to curb carbon emissions there are only 2 ways

To go Nuclear or to Go poor !

Wind and solar are no alternative they don't move the needle. Each time governments discontinue a nuclear power plant more gas generation is needed. alternative energy is no Alternative. There must be a reason for so much money to Solar & Wind subsidies and it's not because of the envoirment.

“Nuclear is the most effective tool we have to decrease or avoid emissions.”

James Conca



From FORBES,12:15pm EST|1,387 views

Why Is Solar Energy Getting 250 Times More In Federal Tax Credits Than Nuclear?

The world’s top climatologists have agreed that we will need more nuclear energy – at the gigawatt and terawatt scale — if we are going to have any hope of limiting greenhouse gas emissions. It’s also clear that we must also preserve and extend the operating lives of existing nuclear reactors. That’s not happening. Instead, reactors are being shuttered and their output is being replaced by natural gas-fired generators. 










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Scott I will sell my Bitcoins to you at 200,000 ! you can double your money still!

Thursday, December 17, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 Money can be printed, Bitcoin is in short supply and many Bitcoins are lost. when one bitcoin cost USD 6000 I could recommend to  buy some bitcoins and see what was going to happen. Now that a bitcoin is worth north of USD 20,000 it's becoming tricky, only very rich people can buy 1 bitcoin. I guess people will start trading fractions. I still recommend that everybody should have a bit of bitcoin.

Can Bitcoin go trugh the roof? NO 

why?

because I prefer to buy one house than having 2 bitcoins.

when the price reaches 200,000 I will sell my Bitcoins and buy one farm 


I posted this in 2019

https://thoughtmeme.blogspot.com/2019/04/if-bitcoin-does-succeed-1-bitcoin-may.html




Simply put, people want more of those things they can have less of.

When British Airways announced in 2003 that they would no longer be operating the twice daily London—New York Concorde flight because it had become uneconomical to run, sales the very next day took off.

Notice that nothing had changed about the Concorde itself. It certainly didn’t fly any faster, the service didn’t suddenly get better, and the airfare didn’t drop. It had simply become a scarce resource. And as a result, people wanted it more.








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Why alternative energy is not alternative

Friday, December 11, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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From Charles Gave of Gavekal

The older I get, the more I am convinced that the economy is nothing but energy transformed. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the story of the economy has been one of constant movement from not very efficient sources of energy, such as wood and then coal, to more “dense” and efficient sources, such as oil and nuclear fission, with the aim having been to arrive eventually at nuclear fusion.

However, in the last couple of decades we have decided to go backwards, to less efficient sources of energy such as wind and sunlight.

My take:

1.Alternative energy is not alternative because humans have used sun, water, wind and geothermal forever and were poor because of that.

2.Technology has improved and wind, solar can be more effective but far away from fossil or nuclear

3.If despite rules incentives and government meddling Alternatives never become 1/3 of world demand and since there is no investment in oil oil is going to overshoot. Alternatives is not an alternative.

4.If alternatives is a real alternative and become 50% of demand since de Saudis, Iran , etc will fight for a small pie (only 50%) oil will gravitate to USD 15 that is their marginal cost.

My take is that we will have scenario 3 first . 




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People like to be consistent with the things they have previously said or done.

Wednesday, December 09, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Once people make a decision, take a stand or perform an action, they will face an interpersonal pressure to behave in a consistent manner with what they have said or done previously

If you publicly state your position you have a big trouble changing it. If you are a stock market trader you should never take a stand. what makes sense in life is to adapt and react to the situation.  However people don't want to think and some things get automated and that helps us survive in a complex world. This is a big tool to the marketing person, if you get your prospect to take a stand (even a small one) they will probably will be consistent with the first stand. 


 "Consistency is contrary to nature, contrary to life. The only completely consistent people are the dead."

— Aldous Huxley (Do What You Will: Twelve Essays)



"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."
— Ralph Waldo Emerson (Self-Reliance)
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"IF I SEE RED, I SELL QUICKLY"

Tuesday, December 08, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 There are many ways to skin a cat as people use to say. One is to buy things that are

a)still unknown;

b)have a new product;

c)and are still small.


if you do that you will have some things going negative, I cut them fast like Barbara Streisand below, but you can have some names that can give you 100 to 1

This is one thing that I do for my clients in our Lisbon Family Office. We try to shoot for the stars. 




Barbra Streisand's Latest Role: Stock Picker "IF I SEE RED, I SELL QUICKLY"
By Jeanne Lee
June 21, 1999

(FORTUNE Magazine) – So Barbra Streisand was talking with her good friend Donna Karan on the phone last fall, and she told Karan she'd made $130,000 on eBay stock in just one month. Karan was duly impressed. As Streisand tells it, "She said, 'Oh, can you do that for me? I'll give you a million dollars to invest for me.' And I said, 'You're crazy, why would you do that?' She said, 'Well, it sounds like you're making so much money, so do it for me.' So I said, 'I'll do it if you're willing to lose it. Are you willing to lose a million dollars? That's the only way I'm willing to do this.'"

At the outset it looked as if the famed designer would indeed take a big loss. "The first day I bought eBay and Amazon, and they dropped like 20 points each, at least," Streisand recalled recently in an exclusive interview with FORTUNE. "I couldn't even call her, because I was heartsick. I was having heart palpitations.... So I waited till the stock went back up, when I could call her again, and then I said, 'I don't think I can do this'...yet I was fascinated to try." The result was stunning: After five months of intense trading, Streisand managed to nearly double her friend's stake, to $1.8 million.




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You get rewarded for unique knowledge, not for effort.

Sunday, November 29, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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You get rewarded for unique knowledge, not for effort.

Effort is required to create unique knowledge.

@naval







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If the banks cut access to your money , are you prepared?

Monday, November 23, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 "The welfare of humanity is always the alibi of tyrants."- Albert Camus

I just spoke with a friend who has close relatives in Lebanon. The Banks cut the access to their money. You can not use your money, you can't use your credit cards, you are poor. You can only take USD 50 a month at the official rate, you are poor one day to the next!

are you ready for this?  

Is this impossible to happen, don't bet on that Lebanon is a country with a big banking tradition. Government officials can kill the people to help the people! Argentina did it but Lebanon was a decent country.

5 strategies to prevent disaster (if you are interested contact me directly)

a)have some money in a country that is not your country

b)have some bitcoins

c)have a corporation with some real business and let the money in the company not on a personal account

d)....................

e).....................


Don't buy gold if there is a crisis and you need food, you will exchange a kg of gold for a bag of rice. Gold is to speculate not for a disaster. In crises food , energy, soap and water become very very expensive, gold and jewelry are worthless. 



From the FT
Meanwhile, customers are still fighting the banks for their own cash. For nearly a year banks have restricted access to deposits, citing fears of a bank run when mass protests broke out over corruption and inequality last October. Richard Howes, a British retiree who was born in Beirut and lives in Greece, says the small sums his Beirut-based bank releases to him are barely enough to get by. The 74-year-old says he can withdraw just $100 a month on a credit card and zero from his current account. “Spending is just on food and things like electricity,” he says. As for non-urgent medical care, “you say, ‘that can wait’.”



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One Bad Idea

Thursday, November 19, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 Rent control


If Landlords are allowed to raise rents to reflect a monetary inflation and true conditions of supply and demand, individual tenants will economize by taking less space. This will allow others to share the accommodations that are in short supply. The same amount of housing shelter more people, until the shortage is relieved.

Rent control, however, encourages wasteful use of space. It discriminates in favor of those who already occupy houses or appartments in a particular city or region at the expense of those who find themselves outside.


Henry Hazlitt



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Canceling Student-Loan Debt Is a Bad Idea

Thursday, November 19, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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“The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.”

Henry Hazlitt 


1.If Government pay the banks and  " Cancel " student loans all the students that decided to pay instead of getting a credit feel stupid


2.People that studied and went to college are the least probable to lose their job in COVID. If you work in a restaurant probably you don't have a student loan.


3.The student that paid his loan yesterday is going to feel stupid.


4.When you sign a contract and you can escape by government intervention you become spoiled.




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Socialism always works

Sunday, November 01, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 “...equitable treatment means we all end up at the same place.”

--Kamala Harris

Argentina began the 20th century as one of the wealthiest places on the planet. In 1913, it was richer than France or Germany, almost twice as prosperous as Spain, and its per capita GDP was almost as high as that of Canada. Until the 1930s, the French used the phrase ‘‘riche comme un Argentin’’ to describe the foolishly rich. The century’s golden beginning was followed by far less prosperous decades. Over the last 100 years, Argentina’s place in the hierarchy of nations dropped precipitously, falling behind not only Europe but also many of the growing countries in Asia. Why did a nation that was doing so well end up doing so poorly? Argentina’s mediocre 20th century performance matters not only for students of Latin American economic history. That performance stands as a warning to the world. No country is too rich to fail

Introduction to Argentine exceptionalism Edward L. Glaeser1 • Rafael Di Tella1 • Lucas Llach2

In Venezuela everybody is in the same place. Poor.

If you don't want to be poor you have to accept that people are different and some will be very very rich but everybody gets better.

How does economy works
There are 2 people in the World Adam & Eve
Eve makes 100 & Adam makes 10 a year , difference 90
GDP grows at 10%
Eve makes 110 & Adam now makes 11, difference 99

inequality grows with growth. The rich guy grows more in USD than the poor guy, both end up better. If there is a big recession the rich guy suffers a lot and the poor will starve.

This is Socialism Basics, it always works , everybody ends poor .

“The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings. The inherent virtue of Socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.” —House of Commons, 22 October 1945, W Churchill 

 
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Apple vs Amazon

Friday, October 30, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Amazon wants to make life cheaper, with Amazon I check what other people say about a product and zero mistakes, in Amazon when I am looking for something  I look for Amazon Choice and it's normally the best (Cheaper ) choice. 


Apple has a different approach, it's beautiful and easier to use but very very expensive. I see the Apple model more in danger from competition. 





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If I voted in the USA I would vote for......

Thursday, October 29, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 “When Alexander the Great visited the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: ‘Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.’ It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.”

― Henry Hazlitt


I would probably vote for Donald J Trump because 

0.I don't want to be poor
1. The speech/communication is pathetic but action is always ok
2. I don't want more Government, ever
3. I don't believe in big taxes 
4. Europe is not good for people that want to work USA still is
5.It would be the best for my children
6.US President Donald Trump announced the United States recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, I agree.
7.His war with China I agree, Chinese have no respect for the human life, property, etc...
8.His fight on regulations check
9.His approach to COVID is the correct one, lockdowns don't work just extend the pandemic over time (Now we know....)
10.He did not start any war, or sent any troops anywhere
11.He doesn't care about G7 , G 20 and all the other bullshit.
12.He did good for the middle class that have been left behind with automation & Globalization
13.I have almost no friend in Portugal that would vote for D J Trump. I know I must be doing something right.



All in all I think he thinks well. Trump believes in Man believes that man can decide can have his own choices and I will always vote for that.

I don't know Joe Biden at all, looks like a career politician, with a decent speech but he looks a bit lost and he wants a revolution I don't like revolutions













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Socialism always loses

Wednesday, October 14, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 Left always do things that make sense and always lose, from victory to victory until the end. Sweden strategy does not make sense but works . Lockdowns make sense but don't work and have some side effects.


the end of course is a lot of people on the Gov/State shoulders





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A Plumber Charged this guy USD 300

Wednesday, October 14, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Why would you go to college/lawschool/mba/blahblahblah..


I guess because you don't want to be a plumber. However if you pick any work that the world doesn't need you have a problem. The world does not need an average lawyer, an average architect or an average MD.


all these jobs will be replaced by a computer. A good doctor will be always on demand because someone has to tell the computer what to look for.


Do something new, do something that has no license to practice. There are no rules yet .


If you don't want to do new things you can always be a plumber.............




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Let your kids fail small

Monday, October 12, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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You need stress to be strong , If you never get tested one day you break at the first wind. In Portugal authorities want to prevent small fires and in 2017 in Pedrogão they got a huge fire that killed more than 50 people. 


If you take very small doses of  a bad thing you became a bit immune. 


If you don't let your kids fail small they became paralyzed with fear of failing



From Jay Shetty book, 

A few decades ago, scientists conducted an experiment in the Arizona desert where they built “Biosphere 2”—a huge steel-and-glass enclosure with air that had been purified, clean water, nutrient-rich soil, and lots of natural light. It was meant to provide ideal living conditions for the flora and fauna within. And while it was successful in some ways, in one it was an absolute failure. Over and over, when trees inside the Biosphere grew to a certain height, they would simply fall over. At first, the phenomenon confused scientists. Finally, they realized that the Biosphere lacked a key element necessary to the trees’ health: wind. In a natural environment, trees are buffeted by wind. They respond to that pressure and agitation by growing stronger bark and deeper roots to increase their stability.





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Watching/Reading the news is useless

Friday, October 09, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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"To be completely cured of newspapers, spend a year reading the previous week's newspapers." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb


Watching/Reading the news is useless

Though it may feel like you’re getting something done, you’re not. The reality is, the news doesn’t really affect you. It’s good to keep up with the goings on of the world, but don’t fool yourself into thinking you’re being productive by doing so. You’re not doing anything. Go do your work.


I saw this in a blog without author but I tend to agree. I just think if  affects you a lot. You think you are working and news specially if it's opinion can get into your thought process.


Read History, study facts, hard data and forget the weekly theme. You can't make money on news because they are all incorporated in the prices and there are a lot of negative news that relly enter your mind.


Just turn down your tv and get some silence.

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If you want a new idea, read an old book.

Thursday, October 08, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 Almost always when I buy a new book just out of print I am disappointed. When I buy a book that is in print for 50 years and have 13 editions there is something there. Don't buy new. 


There is nothing new in the world. 



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So true

Monday, October 05, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Not exactly true, some people receive from Government and others could have a better life without Government






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Let's change capitalism! It's working

Monday, October 05, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Life is harder for young people now than in the past. Do you agree?

Friday, October 02, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 Nowadays, the life of young people seems to be easier than in the past, but we would have to think about the differences between education and work: while the level and quality of education is decreasing, the requirements to get a job are increasing.


Easy education ----> Hard Life 

Difficult Education ------------> Easy life


Education is easy, in my country you cannot fail, no student will stay behind means that every student even if he know zero progresses to the next level.

Kids this day have a sensation that they are busy in Instagram , Facebook and WhatsApp or NETFLIX. They achieve nothing but they are busy. Life did not change at all, people are dormant with so many distractions and think they are progressing. They are not. Everything is the same.

Either you learn a new language, or learn how to code or you strive to win in sports or in Music. Kids have to understand that in life you either are a producer or a consumer. Money flows from Consumers to producers. Kids this days are consumers and think they are progressing. I think they will have a surprise because work is just like it always was . Nothing has changed.

Mind something when you are starting your life you can work 14 or 16 hours everyday. I used to do 6am to 6pm in the office. Now with my own kids and a much more active social life I can't work 12 hours a day anymore. Work when you can, you will miss this time when you can progress fast.

My advice to KIDS is below, Mark is spot on


My advice to young people just starting out: Make a list of everything you want and spend the next 10-15 years getting it piece by piece. Work hard, save and invest. Forget about flash until you truly can afford it. Build your trading account, not your car or watch collection.

Mark Minervini

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Investment Illusion nº1

Tuesday, September 29, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Words are flying out like / Endless rain into a paper cup / They slither while they pass / They slip away across the universe.

These words are from the 1969 Beatles song "Across the Universe," first released on the album No One's Gonna Change Our World.


Yes information is not knowledge, to know what to do, to have a strategy, to have a system, to have a rule is much more important than lots of data points. To read opinion is even worse than data points. Forget about information, forget about reading news and see what works and copy, see who did very well and copy, read a biography, read history.

One of the most stupid ideas of the investment business is that past performance does not matter. Of course it matters. If you see long term performance even if lumpy there is something there. Copy study it .


Forget information , both buyer and seller have pretty much the same info and they want to do the opposite. Information is not key. To know what to do is key.


 “To bankrupt a fool, give him information.”

― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms


“Information is not knowledge.”

― Albert Einstein


One of the most persistent illusions of the business of investing is that information is all you need to make money. Organizations that sell information foster that illusion.

Thomas H Phelps
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I could be very rich

Wednesday, September 23, 2020 Francisco 1 Comments

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Buy Right and sit.

Reuters service started in 1851 Bloomberg started in 1981.  When I worked for BPI in Lisbon in the 80's I assisted and helped (I was involved ) the change from all Reuters terminals to all Bloomberg terminals. It took 10 years and the difference of quality was amazing. We could send messages before internet, we could customize graphs etc... If I could invest in the Bloomberg company I would be rich. But Bloomberg was not listed . 


However I was one of the first users of AMAZON in Portugal , I was a huge buyer of books and I bought Amazon stock however I did not sit tight. Each time I thought we were in a Bear market I sold and of course when you sell something at USD 500 it's difficult to buy again at 700 or 800. I lost the boat . The lesson is if you are making 100% and the company is still growing just sit tight. AMAZON went from 15 in 2000 to 3100 now ! (Table below)


If you have a winner just sit.


How to find the new AMAZON or the new BLOOMBERG? Hire me I have some ideas where to search.


1.Small

2. Innovation

3.Growth

4.Moat

......


we have 15 criteria for a future 100 Bagger candidate






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