What is this Blog About?

Wednesday, January 29, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

I don't know perhaps the people who visit it can say better than me but I have a few ideas that keep coming over and over.

1.Capitalism is the only system that makes people happy. Socialism is not a system society is destroyed (Venezuela etc....). To treat people like weak and vulnerable that must be helped never works.

2.The Good old days were no Good

3.Eat less, eat very little if you can. Zero Sugar.

4.Best thing for the brain is exercise, physical exercise is the best.Brain exercise a distant 2nd best.

5.Eat meat, be like a MASAI, meat & Exercise. 

6.All this radical ideas of changing what is working is just stupid. I am a conservative.

7.Have a philosophy of whatever comes it's ok. If you have this view of life you will be happy. Anything and everything don't make plans just enjoy and adapt.If things change it's ok never try to go back. it's over let's move on.

8.In my business some people confuse past experience is no guarantee of future results which is partially true with past experience does not matter. It matters a lot. In fact recent results are a great indication what is coming next.

9."In three words I can sum up everything I've learned about life: it goes on."

Robert Frost

10.It doesn't matter. Most of the things don't matter at all. It's just noise.Enjoy. Stop listening to news.

11.The person who works hard and is organized (FOCUS) normally does better in life than the high IQ  smart person. Don't over complicate things.

All time low !

Friday, January 24, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

The price you pay must make a difference

My dog is never sick

Wednesday, January 22, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

My Dog is never sick. only eats Dog Food no leftovers, runs like crazy and I never have to go  the vet with him. he is 5 years old.


 “Brute animals are the most healthy, and they are exposed to all weather, and of men, those are healthiest who are the most exposed.”
― Thomas Jefferson 

How to beat the SPX

Wednesday, January 22, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

Example

There are only 2 companies in the world
Company A & Company B
The fair value of both companies is 100
Company A trades at 250 and company B at 50.
In the SPX company A has a weight of 250/300 =83% and company B 50/300  17%

World normalizes and company A and B return to their fair value of 100

Company A has a return of -150/250=-60%
Company B has a return of +100%

equal weight gains at market weight , equal weight gains at SPX

When there are a lot of flows into indexing it's possible that company A gets even more overvalued than company B. YES it is happening now and it happen in 1999.

how to solve this problem?

We have a system than gives Risk parity weights and that mitigates this problem.

contact us if you want to know more

Geral@lisbonfamilyoffice.pt

Things people undervalue until it's gone

Sunday, January 19, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

I like this post from Michael I would add 2 more items

To be in charge of your agenda
To be able to walk . This one is essential, I have seen people that lost vision but they get back to be what they were very soon. If you lose your ability to walk the end is near. 

In case you miss I am here! 36b

Sunday, January 19, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

Something is right in the US banking

This is a surprise to me

Sunday, January 19, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

There is zero correlation between the distance of the S&P vs 200 day moving average and the next 20 day returns! Period.

Something strange in the GOLD market

Friday, January 17, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

Last decade’s gold bull market, which lasted 10 years and saw the price of gold rise almost seven-fold, was dominated by buyers from the East — primarily from China and India.............................................

Are we beginning to see the return of the western interest in the gold markets? We believe that we are. Tracking the accumulation of gold and silver through their respective physical ETFs is a good way to gauge the movement. The 17 physical gold ETFs we follow have shown consistent accumulations throughout 2019. By our calculation, they have accumulated 40 tonnes of metal in Q1, 59 tonnes in Q2, and 214 tonnes in Q3. The accumulations continue into Q4. In the first three weeks of October, another 35 tonnes was accumulated. For all of 2019, physical gold ETFs have accumulated 350 tonnes of metal and total holdings now stands at 2,560 tonnes— almost equal to their 2012 peak.



Almost no one has GOLD in the western countries , is a barbaric relic. If the people with money in the world (Europe & US)  get interested in Gold we will have a real Bull market. Forgot 30 German bonds with negative yield.

Life before Bread

Friday, January 17, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

Let food be thy medicine and medicine be thy food
― Hippocrates 

Fog

Friday, January 17, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

Bureaucrats creating chaos by seeking stability.

Wednesday, January 15, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

From Nassim Taleb Twiter 

Angers Bridge

Monday, January 13, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

Generally speaking, decentralized systems are more stable than centralized ones. 
Seth Levine


When an army marches across a bridge, the soldiers often "break step" so that their rhythmic marching will not start resonating throughout the bridge. A sufficiently large army marching at just the right cadence could set the deadly vibration into motion.


The idea or organizing, merging, consolidation, uniformization, regulation etc...makes the world very fragile. Something robust must be diverse.

If one compartment is compromised the rest of the ship will survive only if there is compartments.

if everybody does the same thing when one is sick everybody is.

Big things are very fragile.



Angers Bridge, also called the Basse-Chaîne Bridge, was a suspension bridge over the Maine River in Angers, France. It was designed by Joseph Chaley and Bordillon, and built between 1836 and 1839. The bridge collapsed on 16 April 1850, while a battalion of French soldiers was marching across it, killing over 200 of them.

What do you do here?

Sunday, January 12, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

I am not going to short semis! no way it can go more.....

The way I think is AMD just broke the 2000 top now it can explode up ..................

Why this could be just the beginning?

Saturday, January 04, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

Because we have been in a sideways market for 16 years and came just out of the box.

this is the stock bond ratio

Optimism is the only realism!

Thursday, January 02, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

TAGS:

“For myself I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use to be anything else.”
― Winston S. Churchill 


I do have conversations/interactions in my Blog,LinkedIn, investors, clients  etc... with thousands of people every year. What can I say...............

People are under invested they haven't participated in the rally

the press with the inequality, the capitalism is broken rhetoric, climate emergency (Not global warming anymore because the seas are cooling) just makes people feel that something bad is about to happen.  If you want to have a good life just disconnect, just don't be online just cut the noise. Just look what is working and copy. Enjoy the nature, the animals and do some sport. Cut the crap. cut the news. Drink some hot tea.

Investors Bail on Stock Market Rally, Fleeing Funds at Record Pace

In what may be the best year for stocks since 2013, investors have exited in droves

Buy but don't buy at any price. But buy. The only sensible thing to do is to have equities but don't expect to be positive every year.


Best Buy (BBY) and Amazon (AMZN) are two giant retailers in the US. Over the past seven years, Best Buy’s revenue and net income stayed flat, while earnings-per-share (EPS) rose by 3.47% per year (due to buybacks) – a poor performance to say the least. By comparison Amazon’s revenue, net income, and EPS grew by 25%, 48.6%, and 46.8% per year annualized – one of the most successful business records in the history of the world. Best Buy closed stores and shrank its footprint while Amazon entered and dominated new and exciting areas of business, such as cloud computing and video streaming. Given these statistics you might be surprised that Best Buy delivered a better return to shareholders over the past seven years than Amazon. Shocked? Yet, the annualized rate of return over the past seven years has been 33.03% for Amazon and 36.65% for Best Buy. 7 How can this be? Simple: Best Buy started out with an extremely low valuation and extremely low expectations, while the expectations for Amazon were very high.

Lukasz R. Tomicki, CFA, MBA
Portfolio Manager
LRT Capital Management, LLC