Why is the market diving?

Friday, February 28, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Is it the virus? No the virus is not so bad at all. It's because the market (equities) is pricing in a recession. That is it

Normally in a recession markets fall between 20% and 50%. 2008 56% in 2000 49% etc....

From Charles GAVE excellent piece yesterday

As Frédéric Bastiat never tired of saying, economics is all about “what is seen, and what is not seen.” In recent years, what markets have seen is the rise of profit margins permitted by globalization, and the adoption of the platform company model. What markets have not seen so clearly is the rise in fragility that came with the optimization of supply chains: fragility as supply chains became ever more dependent on China; political fragility as Western workers (and voters) felt increasingly squeezed out; and financial fragility as Western governments continue to increase budget deficits, passing on to future generations the cost of running today’s welfare states.

MAD Cow disease II

Thursday, February 27, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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a pandemic of fear


Is Covid-19 a serious thing?  NO I am not a doctor but I say NO . I saw enough. It can kill some people yes.

1,6 Million die each year of Diarrhea Diseases

2000 so far of Coronavirus

let's stop the world because of Coronavirus

This officially started on the 24th of January but it took several days /weeks to reach Europe. This is fast??? 

apparently only sick and old people dye like the FLU (less numbers) 

The Governments are taking the opportunity to do more, more governments more control more checks more spending more everything

To me this is a joke

I was here in Portugal when there was the Mad Cow disease where no one eat BEEF there was panic. How many people died of MAD COW disease? ZERO 

Of course if people think this is a serious thing This is a serious thing.

There is a lot of people (Journalists that want the worse) 

Look what Ed yardeni Says ! 

“Extreme government responses aimed at containing the virus, while effective, will create a pandemic of fear, increasing the risk of a global recession and bear market in stocks,” Yardeni writes. Yardeni had previously identified 65 “panic attacks” during the bull market and believes the coronavirus may have the dubious honor of being the 66th. While taking effort not to minimize the suffering of those afflicted and killed by the virus, Yardeni notes that more people have died from the flu this year, and that more than 80% of coronavirus cases are said to be mild.

Too many F words but useful

Wednesday, February 26, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Sorry for the language I try now to use it. I believe I can express myself without Cursing

This too shall pass.

Wednesday, February 26, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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The market will continue up with the normal periodic panics

We are in a periodic panic. The only thing that could ruin the Bull besides a serious recession (It's very possible) is inflation. There is no inflation, no yields up no competition to equities.

let's monitor the recession. I think it's very possible

 Get a shopping list and enjoy the SALE. This shall pass as usual

BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE WE ARE GOING DOWN MORE short term ..... But for a medium term perspective just stay the course. IF you don't want big emotions just sell the market and relax .

there no Sure things but I thing Short term treasuries will keep going up

Small is not Beautiful

Wednesday, February 19, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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From the WSJ
Why Do the Biggest Companies Keep Getting Bigger? It’s How They Spend on Tech

 Your suspicions are correct: The biggest companies in every field are pulling away from their peers faster than ever, sucking up the lion’s share of revenue, profits and productivity gains.


Something has changed a bit, the big companies are killing the small ones. Look at the line Size. small-large keeps going down. Regulation helps the big guys because it's cheaper to face the costs of regulation for a huge company. If you invest 10% of sales in R&D the big guy....If you spend in marketing 10% of your sales..... There is a limit where the big and fat guy starts to get lazy and slow but I don't see that happening. This movement is good for USA because some of the biggest companies in the world are there.

An inexhaustible supply of energy, without pollution or global warming.

Friday, February 14, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Nuclear energy offers a clean, abundant source of baseload energy (non-intermittent and with low variable costs) with a better safety record than any other source, and it is almost essential in the context of the electrification of the global vehicle fleet in any realistic scenario in the long term.
Fernado Bernad, AZ Valor


“Because normal human activity is worse for nature than the greatest nuclear accident in history.”
― Martin Cruz Smith 


The Idea that the world is discontinuing nuclear is just stupid. Only someone with an agenda (something to gain) can speak on it.

500 million transactions errors Zero !

Thursday, February 13, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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You Will Not Grow Until You Learn to Tolerate Discomfort

Tuesday, February 11, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Discomfort may be a doorway; don’t run from it
― Joseph Deitch, Elevate: An Essential Guide to Life

“Fatigue, discomfort, discouragement are merely symptoms of effort.”
― Morgan Freeman 


I am not a No pain No gain Guy, I  know that it works, yes i know that in sports you have to create disruption in your body and them to do the normal is very easy. I know this. It's totally true. However in endurance sports the Constance of training and consistency also works and I don't have horrible workouts. Since i have a coach I train less extreme , less discomfort and better results. But I am a guy that can train easy and in the big day I do much better than in training.

Perhaps there is an alternative way that is Focus and repetition and you grow just by repetition. If you want results fast, just be a bit crazy and sustain some discomfort. I read Elon Musk bio, this guy sustained a lot of personal discomfort. Even in sales this is true. Just stay the course. Persist. 

The Comfortable Life is Killing you

Tuesday, February 11, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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From Erik Rittenberry


https://medium.com/@erikrittenberry/the-comfortable-life-is-killing-you-61cae61622e7


Of course comfort life is killing everybody, you don't walk you don't run you don't experience hunger and you don't want to be sick and lay in bet time to time. You need to expose yourself to cold and to nature. I need it big time. When I am out for a bike ride at 7h30 it's freezing cold but after a while everything is beautiful. last Saturday we started our ride under the rain but after a while it got better and we made a good day. 120 km it was a very good day.

just relax and don't wish the world to be perfect. Just enjoy the here and now. have a great day. walk for 1 hour today.