Robinson Crusoe Economics

Sunday, August 30, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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The way to get A is not to strive for A directly. Invest in some tools, take some steps around to strive for A later. Go to college and make nothing to gain more later.

I believe Amazon did exactly that, they invested in process, machines, systems instead of going for profits immediately.

From Seeking Alpha, 

The Dao of Capital: Austrian Investing In A Distorted World by Mark Spitznagel (Wiley, 2013) is a beautifully crafted book, one I can recommend to readers of all political/economic persuasions. Yes, Ron Paul wrote the foreword and the book will undoubtedly appeal to Fed bashers, but its main line of reasoning transcends ideological divides.

Spitznagel advocates a roundabout (shi, Umweg) approach to investing, which involves "waiting and preparing now in order to gain a greater advantage later." (p. 3) Admittedly, waiting and preparing can be, and usually is, a painful process. Think of Robinson Crusoe who sacrificed time that could have been spent catching fish by hand or with a crude spear in order to build a simple boat and a fishing net. He went hungry for weeks in order to position himself for a larger catch later on. "This is Umweg: Crusoe ultimately catches more fish by first catching fewer fish, by focusing his efforts in the immediate toward indirect means, not ends." 

Money is made by sitting

Wednesday, August 26, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 "Money is made by sitting" - Jesse Livermore

You can make money in 2 ways , buy good stuff and sit tight or keep a cash position and wait for a crisis. I am better at doing the first. I am making a lot of money just sitting in good graphs that move from left to upper right. In 2011 there was a big crisis in Portugal , IMF came in and everything was on sale. My brother called my attention for some property that was for sale in the prime location in Lisbon , in Rossio like Piccadilly or Union Square in NY , It's not Times square it's an historic place in the tourist center. Well I wasn't aggressive enough bidding for this 4, 1 bedroom  apartments (totally new) and I miss it. At the time I was happy because I bid but I didn't get them (someone was more aggressive) and my business was never real estate. Looking back each one would be worth now the price of the 4 of them. 

Going back to what I do, I buy good stuff and if it's making money I try to sit like Jesse Livermore says. Every time I sell because it's too high it's a mistake. When I am losing I exit fast.

Looking at the graph below still a lot of people on the sidelines. The market can go further yes it's possible that we can go to 4000 on the S&P. Next year when reality sets in possible it's another story.

For now sit tight.

In march 12 2020 not quite in the bottom of the COVID crash my advice was There are not many panics when you see one use it. It was a good advice I should do more what I write on this blog.

The oldest Animal of All

Thursday, August 20, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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 Perhaps being exposed to cold is the answer to live longer. I know that I sleep much better with some cold. 

Since that research was published, scientists in Denmark, England, and elsewhere have been trying to figure out why these fish live so long — and what to make of the fact that they seem to avoid cancer, heart disease, and other ailments that go along with aging in humans.

One possible explanation for the sharks’ longevity is that they spend their lives 2,000 meters down, where the water temperature is around 29 degrees Fahrenheit. Extreme cold is associated with slow metabolism and maturation — Greenland sharks don’t reach adulthood until age 150 — as well as long life spans.

https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/can-weird-shark-show-us-how-live-centuries-ncna812671

This is a 393-years old Greenland Shark that was located in the Arctic Ocean. It's been wandering the ocean since 1627. It is the oldest living vertebrate known on the planet. Photo by Julius Nielsen.

If you want a guarantee buy a toaster

Monday, August 17, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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There is no security in Life-------Charles Nenner

Life is Suffering-------Jordan Peterson

A man who fears suffering is already suffering from what he fears-Michel de Montaigne

The Governments are trying to control everything even the virus, so people think life is a straight line without disaster and disappointments. In my country students cannot fail , because children cannot stand the pain. People are not ready to a minor setback.. people are very fragile. Everything is possible, so enjoy today, enjoy now as if there is no tomorrow

I find Jordan Peterson a good advice, I think if I do what he says life is easier. 

The winners and the losers have the same goals

Thursday, August 06, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Royal Family Motto

Sunday, August 02, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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