Investment Illusion nº1

Tuesday, September 29, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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Words are flying out like / Endless rain into a paper cup / They slither while they pass / They slip away across the universe.

These words are from the 1969 Beatles song "Across the Universe," first released on the album No One's Gonna Change Our World.

Yes information is not knowledge, to know what to do, to have a strategy, to have a system, to have a rule is much more important than lots of data points. To read opinion is even worse than data points. Forget about information, forget about reading news and see what works and copy, see who did very well and copy, read a biography, read history.

One of the most stupid ideas of the investment business is that past performance does not matter. Of course it matters. If you see long term performance even if lumpy there is something there. Copy study it .

Forget information , both buyer and seller have pretty much the same info and they want to do the opposite. Information is not key. To know what to do is key.

 “To bankrupt a fool, give him information.”

― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms

“Information is not knowledge.”

I could be very rich

Wednesday, September 23, 2020 Francisco 1 Comments

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Buy Right and sit.

Reuters service started in 1851 Bloomberg started in 1981.  When I worked for BPI in Lisbon in the 80's I assisted and helped (I was involved ) the change from all Reuters terminals to all Bloomberg terminals. It took 10 years and the difference of quality was amazing. We could send messages before internet, we could customize graphs etc... If I could invest in the Bloomberg company I would be rich. But Bloomberg was not listed . 

However I was one of the first users of AMAZON in Portugal , I was a huge buyer of books and I bought Amazon stock however I did not sit tight. Each time I thought we were in a Bear market I sold and of course when you sell something at USD 500 it's difficult to buy again at 700 or 800. I lost the boat . The lesson is if you are making 100% and the company is still growing just sit tight. AMAZON went from 15 in 2000 to 3100 now ! (Table below)

If you have a winner just sit.

How to find the new AMAZON or the new BLOOMBERG? Hire me I have some ideas where to search.

1.Small

2. Innovation

3.Growth

4.Moat

......

we have 15 criteria for a future 100 Bagger candidate