There are tremendous benefits to being the best in any particular area

Wednesday, April 28, 2021 Francisco 1 Comments

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“With limited time or opportunity to experiment, we intentionally narrow our choices to those at the top.”

— Seth Godin

From Fs Blog

There are tremendous benefits to being the best in any particular area. Top performers might be only slightly more skilled than the people one level below them, yet they receive an exponential payoff. A small difference in relative performance—an athlete who can run 100 meters a few microseconds faster, a leader who can make better decisions, an opera singer who can go a little higher—can mean the difference between a lucrative career and relative obscurity. The people at the tops of their fields get it all. They are the winners in that particular market. And once someone is regarded as the best, they tend to retain that status. It takes a monumental effort for a newcomer to rise to such a position. Every day new people do make it to the top, but it’s a lot easier to stay there than to get there.

I could not agree more, when you are a prospect if you know someone is the biggest you know there is no risk. If so many people buy there it must be ok. That is also why my wife wants to go to a crowded restaurant and not to a empty one. If you are number one you should let everybody know that. people don't want to take risks.

Be not afraid of going slowly.....

Tuesday, April 27, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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Be not afraid of going slowly, be afraid only of standing still

I am not like this guy (MacGregor below ) at all I speak with a few friends and clients that have done it. Usually it's a very good way to filter bad ideas.

To ask family & friends is not a good idea , usually there are other interests involved. I am with you MacGregor after all

Make sure to tell this to your kids!

Sunday, April 25, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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The results from the chess study provide a crucial insight into the interplay between talent and practice in the development of various skills. While people with certain innate characteristics -IQ, in the case of chess study - may have an advantage when first learning a skill, that advantage gets smaller over time, and eventually the amount and quality of practice take on a much larger role in determining how skilled a person becomes.

Anders Eriksson 

Stop and digest that for a moment: among these young, elite chess players, not only was a higher IQ no advantage, but it seemed to put them at a slight disadvantage. The reason, the researchers found, was that elite players with lower IQ tended to practice more, which improved their chess game to the point they played better than the high-IQ elite players.

Anders Eriksson

Peak by Anders Eriksson is a must read book. He proves without fault that Talent/intelligence etc... help anyone in the first steps in any new venture or activity. The smart kid learns faster but after a bit the person who works more, practice more & better not only equals but normally surpasses the talented one. This is why it's difficult to predict who is going to do well in life, there is no innate characteristic that is a sign of success. IQ for chess predicts who will do well in the first steps of chess, the smarter person grasps the game faster but then stops . The slow one starts heavy & slow but soon surpasses , yes surpasses the smart one that thinks he/she is smart. In one big study of super elite Chess players their IQ is no higher than a normal average person that is not a grandmaster! Amazing.

Yes everything is possible but you have to work pass the initial impression that you are not good at something , don't ever give up. The way you perform in the beginning has nothing to do with what happens in the end. 

You are what you eat

Sunday, April 25, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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Climate Change

Friday, April 23, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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 “How did you convince the German people to accept all of this?"

Experts are no experts

Friday, April 16, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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 In many fields, people who are widely accepted as "experts" are actually not expert performers when judged by objective criteria.

Anders Ericsson

In a famous California wine tasting competition the experts are given 30 wines to taste each member of the Jury. Robert Hodgson run an experiment and 3 glasses of the same wine were given to each. All gave different grades some of them gave the same wine from the same bottle 91, 87 and 87 points. No one was consistent.

If you are a brain surgeon or a plumber you are an expert otherwise disaster occurs immediately , if you are an expert economist, analyst, wine expert, phycologist (yes no different results from anyone without training)  you can be an expert forever. Easy life. 

Inflation is like toothpaste..........

Thursday, April 15, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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I am a no inflation guy as you know. I believe that there is a spare capacity in the world, too much of everything, if there is no impediment to commerce forget long lasting inflation. This graph is a trade not a long term trend.

Of course if there is a change in the psych of people this guy (below) might have the day. Today the mindset is next year it will be cheaper. I don't think it will change.

As Karl Otto Pohl, Bundesbank boss in the 1980s, put it: “Inflation is like toothpaste. Once it’s out of the tube, you can’t put it back.”

Nuclear is not perfect

Wednesday, April 14, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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French finance minister le Maire: we cannot do without nuclear energy in France

“I can’t fix my life. But I can fix the world,” said the socialist.

Saturday, April 10, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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No one is a communist in a communist country ! 

If something is not working , let's double down !

Friday, April 09, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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If the lockdowns are not working it's because we didn't do enough let's double down

If wind and Solar are a disappointment let's do more 

The world is in this path but the Chinese are not, they will have cheap energy & clean. Let's see if having cheap energy is a game changer. 

From Leigh Goehring

Any serious proposal to reduce the carbon intensity of energy needs to have several characteristics. It must be:

• Very energy efficient as measured by EROEI
• Able to supply baseload power and avoid intermittency
• Scalable to meet ongoing global energy demand growth
• Low-carbon or carbon-free.

The only source that meets these criteria is nuclear fission.

A modern reactor generates electricity with an EROEI of nearly 100 compared with 30 for gas and 1–4 for renewable. As a result, only 1% of the generate electricity is consumed internally compared with 3% for gas and 25–60% for renewable energy.

I would never trust a guy like this

Tuesday, April 06, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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 This is obvious a lie but if it was true that he avoided his family for a year despite being in press conferences and meeting all over the place. Disgusting