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Today’s “best practices” lead to dead ends
One of the best books ever is the Zero to One from Pieter Thiel (I met him twice once in San Francisco and once in Lausanne) one of the ideas is that there are two ways to get better, Globalization, see what works elsewhere and copy, this is the Mckinsey way. It works up to a point. It's safer than doing nothing. The second is to create a new path, if it works the benefits can be huge.
we know from school that copying is not a great strategy, in business it's not so bad but you will never be a great company just copying.
From Natalie Blog:
The core lesson is that the best and most disruptive companies go “from zero to one,” from non-existence to existence, from no solution to solution, from nothing expected to something expected. Most companies, though, go from 1 to 1.1, or 1.1 to 1.11, they don’t make a huge disruptive change. To have a lasting impact, you must find a zero and create a new paradigm.
“Today’s “best practices” lead to dead ends; the best paths are new and untried.”
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If you panic panic fast
Our own research among European Companies indicates that one third of those issuing profit warnings (measured as causing a stock price drop exceeding 10% ) issued, another, usually larger, profit warning within one year.
AKO Capital
When you see a change in trend, be the first to bail out. If you see fire in a theater be the first to run for the exit. If you are not married yet and see something that you don't like , it's not going to get better.
The same way that the weather tend to correlate with previous weather , when a problem starts affecting a business it's unlikely to disappear soon.
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After coronavirus Lockdowns we will have climate change Lockdowns !
Too many young Americans these days don't get a chance to learn how to enjoy work. Much of this country's social and political philosophy seems aimed at removing the risks from life one by one. As i told a group of business students in one of the talks i gave at Dartmouth, it is impossible to grant someone happiness. Happiness is not a tangible thing, it's a byproduct, a byproduct of achievement.
Achievement must be made against the possibility of failure, against the risk of defeat. It is no achievement to walk a tightrope laid flat on the floor. Where there is no risk, there can be no pride in achievement and, consequently , no happiness.
Ray Kroc, Founder of the MacDonald's Corporation when he was 52 years old.
After Coronavirus lockdowns that started with the idea of protection the ICU but ended in a different place (control the India virus etc...) Governments will find a new scare , a new danger that no one can see of course and will control our lives. In not a distant future to control carbon emissions people will have to remain 1 day a week locked in their house. It's not because Government wants to control you It's to save the earth. This will not stop. Turn off your TV and don't read newspapers.
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If prices go up and stay up there is no inflation. It's a blip.
Biden's Honeymoon may be over
Fom A Gary Shlling
Biden’s pledge to pay attention to all elements across the political spectrum is long
forgotten, and the President’s plans to spur the economy with massive fiscal
stimuli and to transfer income from the rich to lower-income consumers who
typically spend all their income, and then some, aren’t working.
Congress isn’t cooperating, not surprising given the loss of Democratic House
seats in last year’s election and the 50-50 split in the Senate where the Vice
President’s vote is needed to break ties. Democrats also lost ground in state
legislatures. Nevertheless, the Administration acts as though 2020 was a repeat
of 1932 when FDR was swept into the White House by the Great Depression
and Democrats won 97 seats in the House for a 313-117 advantage and gained
12 in the Senate to rack up a 58-to-37 margin of control. Nevertheless, today’s
Democrats seek to effect a profound change in the relationship between the
federal government and the economy while pushing liberal ideas on social issues.
I see the Economy cracking slowly, Biden can't go forward with his radical agenda and after the excitement of the reopening we will go back to disappointing growth and what we were doing before the covid. Slow growth & Japanification of the world. I am not in the inflation camp because Technological change/advance is deflationary. To have inflation we need prices going up now, next year etc.. If prices go up and stay up there is no inflation. It's a blip.
If there is no inflation rates would go back doing what they were doing, falling, and Gold and Silver might explode higher .
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We would be carbon neutral if...................
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Francisco Carneiro
Lisbon Family Office
There is always a Bull market in the World
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