I was wrong on this

Tuesday, December 27, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 I wrote this in 2016 in this Blog:

I think a country where the leader send her only daughter to Harvard is a country to respect. Now there are 304,000 Chinese Students in the USA. Why we should respect China? because they already have 4 things

work ethic
size 
organization
don't waste time in politics

what they are missing? Marketing and image. No one wants to buy a Chinese car. But this could change.

These students that are in USA might make the change. I am bullish on China

I was wrong at least in what concerns the stock market, China has been a disappointing and that is not new., see below Prof Siegel comments. To make money the solid and obvious almost always wins versus the exciting and the new. China is the future but not yet in the stock market.

I am bullish on China (2016)pot.com/2016/04/i-am-bullish-on-china.html

In 2022 6th edition of Stocks for the long Run Professor SIGEL writes

The last 30 years provide an even more striking example. From 1992 through 2020, China, the world's second economy, has generated the fastest GDP growth by far, averaging 9,3% percent per year. Yet the annual return on Chinese stocks has been only 2,7%, the absolute lowest among 18 emerging markets. In contrast, the highest stock market returns over this period among developing economies have been in Peru and Brazil, although they are near the bottom of GDP growth.

I first reported this seemingly puzzling result in the second edition of Stocks for the long run. I found that from 1970 to 1997, the correlation between stock returns and GDP growth was -0,32 for 17 developed countries and -0,03 for 19 emerging countries.

São Tomé

Monday, December 26, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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We have been in São Tomé all of last week. We went with the 5 kids. It's a very beautiful place, very quiet almost no tourists. The food is poor, only fish & rice. Lot's of fruit, manga, papaya, banana, Fruta Pão, Jacca etc... We had no alcool and no meat for 1 week. Wifi is good no TV. Lot's of reading and my wife took old clothes/books  and toys and we gave to the poor people in the village. We had lunch in House of D Fernanda and NEY. in São Tomé we have lunch in peoples houses. No restaurants and no Menu.

Great diving and wonderful swimming. We had rain everyday after lunch. temperature always 28 degrees Celsius. The bungalow had no windows just mosquito nets.

We will go again.

Never invest in anyone who wrote the book

Tuesday, December 13, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds

Ralph Waldo Emerson

Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative. 

Oscar Wilde

Consistency is contrary to nature, contrary to life. The only completely consistent people are dead. 

Aldous Huxley

Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change. 

Stephen Hawking

yes adapt or die.  I bought a book about value investing. The author was an investment manager very well known he lived in new Jersey. I invested in his fund that did exactly what the book said. conclusion: Never invest in anyone who wrote the book

There is nothing more beautiful than nature

Tuesday, December 06, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 There is nothing more beautiful than nature early in the morning... - Vincent Van Gogh

Why Momentum works

Sunday, December 04, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 "In the world of business, bad news often surfaces serially: You see a cockroach in your kitchen; as the days go by, you meet his relatives."

Warren Buffet

on the way up after the first good news we usually have a series of related news. after a surprise we have more surprises. when I see first good news I jump in.

If you want to get ahead in life marry someone that............

Monday, November 28, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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I already publish this in 2013, this a reprint with some changes 

Things work out best for those who

Monday, November 28, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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Things work out best for those who make the best of how things work out John Wooden

You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you

John Wooden

If you're not making mistakes, then you're not doing anything. I'm positive that a doer makes mistakes

John Wooden.

Success usually comes to those who are too busy looking for it

Friday, November 25, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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Just do it it's not a bad idea, get busy 

 Inaction breeds doubt and fear. Action breeds confidence and courage. If you want to conquer fear, do not sit home and think about it. Go out and get busy.

Dale Carnegie

Action is the foundational key to all success.

Pablo Picasso

An ounce of action is worth a ton of theory.

Ralph Waldo Emerson

European taxpayers will pay this bill for years to come.

Wednesday, November 23, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 From the WSJ , Editorial November 21

Europe is struggling to keep its lights and the heat on this winter, and fuel supply is only half of the energy crisis. The other half, now coming into view, is the ruinous fiscal cost associated with the failure of green-energy flights of fancy. European taxpayers will pay this bill for years to come.

Europe Pays for Green-Energy Illusions

Supply is only half of this winter’s crisis. Costs are soaring, too.

If it doesn't go down when it should

Monday, November 14, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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HUI & GDX are Gold Companies stock indexes

when rates go down it's good for gold

when USD goes down is good for gold

Below I show 2 graphs from the great Stefano Bottaioli and the situation this year.

In 2022 USD & interest rates have been going up. That was not great for GOLD. Gold is down 2% in USD, Gold companies HUI & GDX are down more.

When USD & rates start to ease GOLD will shine. Why not do something when is not yet fashionable. GOLD is not fashionable now.

NOTE: Never buy anything on a tip, do your own work or speak with a financial adviser. 

You want to be rich and anonymous, not

Tuesday, November 08, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 The idea of passports, ID cards, security camaras and mandated vaccines are not civilization.

I have as much privacy as a goldfish in a bowl.

Princess Margaret

"You want to be rich and anonymous, not poor and famous."

Government is a parent that never wants its children to grow up.

Tuesday, November 08, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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If there were less problems we would need a small government.

Government doesn't want to solve problems, the more problems the more government

A state is better governed which has few laws, and those laws strictly observed.

Rene Descartes

The world is not going to be saved by legislation.

William Howard Taft

THE MAN IN THE ARENA

Friday, November 04, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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The world is full of middle man, regulators, compliance and other nice to have jobs.

Lisbon Windows

Thursday, November 03, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 This Lisbon will die if we let too much tourist in.

Simplify your life. Learn to say no

Wednesday, October 26, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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“Focusing is about saying no.” 

Steve Jobs

Very successful people say no to almost everything.

Make decisions with an eye on the future, not just what is good for today

Monday, October 24, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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In the department of economy, an act, a habit, an institution, a law, gives birth not only to an effect, but to a series of effects. Of these effects, the first only is immediate; it manifests itself simultaneously with its cause — it is seen. The others unfold in succession — they are not seen: it is well for us, if they are foreseen. Between a good and a bad economist this constitutes the whole difference — the one takes account of the visible effect; the other takes account both of the effects which are seen, and also of those which it is necessary to foresee. Now this difference is enormous, for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favourable, the ultimate consequences are fatal, and the converse. Hence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good, which will be followed by a great evil to come, while the true economist pursues a great good to come, — at the risk of a small present evil.

Frédéric Bastiat

In Portugal the government decided to impose a VAT tax of 23%. The receipts went up. however Spain has borders with Portugal and their VAT is 21% and for electricity  is 10% vs 23% in Portugal. Now everybody near the border goes to Spain to buy. This is the unseen result of the policy.

The Modern World Can't Exist Without

Friday, October 21, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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The Modern World Can't Exist Without These Four Ingredients. They All Require Fossil Fuels

From Time magazine 2022:

Four materials rank highest on the scale of necessity, forming what I have called the four pillars of modern civilization: cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia are needed in larger quantities than are other essential inputs. The world now produces annually about 4.5 billion tons of cement, 1.8 billion tons of steel, nearly 400 million tons of plastics, and 180 million tons of ammonia. But it is ammonia that deserves the top position as our most important material: its synthesis is the basis of all nitrogen fertilizers, and without their applications it would be impossible to feed, at current levels, nearly half of today’s nearly 8 billion people.

From an Amazon review:

His chapter on food production is particularly interesting and he shows how we now manage to feed 8 billion people reasonably well which would have been inconceivable 100 years ago. How do we do it? By using energy supplied mostly from fossil fuels to create fertilizers and by manufacturing farm machinery and road/rail/shipping transport to distribute the products efficiently. The author points out that if we reverted to solely “organic” farming methods we would be lucky to feed half the world’s population.
He covers the supply of key products such as steel, plastics and cement which are essential for our modern standard of living and how they are not only energy intensive in production but that there are few alternatives. He clearly supports the view that the climate is being affected by man’s activities but points out that the changing of energy production, food production and the production of key products cannot be easily achieved. 

Our lives are only possible because of fossil fuels. That is the reality. In fact consumption of Fossil Fuels keeps going up.

“A new masterpiece from one of my favorite authors… [How The World Really Works] is a compelling and highly readable book that leaves readers with the fundamental grounding needed to help solve the world’s toughest challenges.”—Bill Gates

“You can agree or disagree with Smil—accept or doubt his ‘just the facts’ posture—but you probably shouldn’t ignore him. . . In Smil’s provocative but perceptive view, unrealistic notions about carbon reduction are partly, and ironically, attributable to the very productivity that societies achieved by substituting machine work, powered by fossil fuels, for draft animals and human laborers.”—The Washington Post

"[It is] reassuring to read an author so impervious to rhetorical fashion and so eager to champion uncertainty. . . Smil’s book is at its essence a plea for agnosticism, and, believe it or not, humility — the rarest earth metal of all. His most valuable declarations concern the impossibility of acting with perfect foresight. Living with uncertainty, after all, “remains the essence of the human condition.” Even under the most optimistic scenario, the future will not resemble the past. "—The New York Times

I've found that when the market's going down .....

Tuesday, October 11, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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I've found that when the market's going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy.

Peter Lynch

“You must buy on the way down. There is far more volume on the way down than on the way up, and far less competition among buyers. It is almost always better to be too early than too late...” — Seth Klarman

There will always be uncertainty in the economy and on the stock market

If you’re prepared, corrections can’t hurt you. Corrections are great opportunities to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are panicking.

Peter Lynch

Well, I think the secret is if you have a lot of stocks, some will do mediocre, some will do okay, and if one of two of 'em go up big time, you produce a fabulous result. And I think that's the promise to some people.

Peter Lynch is one of the greatest investors in the world achieving an annual return of 29.2% (!) between 1977 and 1990. This means your investment would have increased 26x (!)

From the great BCA Research in CANADA.

Is this the bottom? who knows. To buy in a panic it usually works. are we in a panic? well it looks like it at least no one is optimist.

Stock market is the only place people run from when things go on sale

Wednesday, September 28, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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There are not many stock market panics when you see one use it. We are living a bit of a panic in 2022. when is it going to end? I don't know so just start and buy a bit  here and a bit there. If it falls a lot even better you buy a bit more.

Long term I think market is going to up for the simple reason that companies don't distribute all their profits , so the pile gets bigger & bigger.

If you don't know what to buy, just ask a professional that you trust.

“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.”

The secret of your future is hidden in

Sunday, September 25, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 "The most practical skill in life is learning to do things when you don’t feel like doing them. Anyone can do it when it’s easy, but most people drop out the minute easy stops."

Ben Greenfield

The secret of your future is hidden in your daily routine.

 Mike Murdock

“It's a hard thing to leave any deeply routined life, even if you hate it.”
― John Steinbeck

It cost zero to my kids to do what is their routine, zero. So it's key to control the routine.  If you find a good routine results are going to be good. That is why diets don't work, but a change in the way you eat makes a big difference.

I have been in Copenhagen this week

Monday, September 19, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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“No one gets into trouble without their own help.”
– Danish Proverb

“Sail while the breeze blows, wind and tide wait for no man.”
– Danish Proverb

1.Flat country

2.No police in sight, I haven't seen one

3.I haven't seen anyone checking if I had a train ticket (I had a 3 day pass)

4.There are no doors to enter the Metro

5.You enter the BUS in any door you don't have to show the driver your pass

6.Apparentely people ride bikes everywhere

7.People have no house maids , they do it themselves

8.No UBER , difficult to get a cab

9.People work very little

10.No stress, no one complains in a queue , no one changes lanes in the traffic or does crazy maneuvers...

11. Design everywhere which means  things are easy to use

12.I went to Lidl , just one cashier open, no one complained. Good business for Lidl the only cashier was fully used.

13.Satrurday night lot's of kids used their bikes to go out at night instead of using UBER etc...

14.No security guards at the door of any building

15.I went to SONJA café , service is very slow, I order a coffee juice & eggs. After 30 min they gave me the money back. 5 people could not do the eggs in 30 minutes. service is relaxed. zero rush

My conclusion is that is a very efficient country , efficient,  you don't spend money in a security guard, you don't have an extra employee in Lidl people wait, you have a slow service in most cafés, the Hotel I stayed only had one student at reception, she did breakfast, reception, rented bikes etc....

the country is not build for someone to collect your trash. If you don't do it ...... 

People don't work a lot, no stress people are relaxed . Even the traffic works ok because people don't change lanes .

They have some good companies like Lego or Novo Nordisk but it's not a country like Sweden with many world household names.

I don't know if Government is small and efficient like the rest of the economy.

The Danish Prime Minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, said:

I know that some people in the U.S. associate the Nordic model with some sort of socialism. Therefore I would like to make one thing clear. Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy.[

• Low corruption 
• High trust (mayby from low corruption)
• Strong work ethics (but not a lot of work)
• Tradition of taking responsibility
• Low level of tribalism, they are together 

Budget

Monday, September 12, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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Avoid Sugar , 1882

Sunday, September 11, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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Be obsessed with improving yourself

Friday, September 09, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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To do well in life and in business you can't have a goal, you have to have some metrics and improve them slowly but surely. It's really difficult to keep improving. Just keep improving.

“There’s always stuff to work on. You’re never there.”
― Tiger Woods

It's a journey, not a destination, and most cultures look for explicit goal lines. The result is that people focus on the goal line, rather than continuous improvement itself, and once that goal line is achieved, the improvement stops.

Scott Davies

Excellent firms don't believe in excellence - only in constant improvement and constant change.

Tom Peters

When I drink ...

Monday, September 05, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 “Let food be thy medicine and medicine be thy food.”

when I drink wine at dinner next day when I wake I have pain all over my body in the first 5 to 10 minutes. when I skip dinner I feel great no pain. I know sugar creates inflammation. sweets & alcohol are the worse for my body.

perhaps just a glass of good wine, my father does exactly that, just one but I am in the camp of all or nothing. It's a shame. I feel soon it will be nothing but water.

PS I only like wine. Perhaps a beer in a hot day.

Energy Cliff

Friday, September 02, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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 One problem the world faces is the following

The world runs at 100 million barrels of oil a day. This is what the world consumes. This number has grown 1 million barrels a year for the last 30 years.

When the world found oil in Oklahoma 140 years ago the oil had enough force to explode higher. At that time the EROI was 1 to 100. They spent 1 barrel to collect 100.

fast forward to today and the Shale oil has a EROI of  1 to 15, they have to inject water & sand, make explosions etc...  

the world has depleted the easy energy , the cheap energy. Now we need to find oil in very difficult places and very expensive. 

Life is going to more difficult, if energy is expensive everything is going to be expensive.  The only competitive energy is nuclear but as we know Greenpeace & Greta destroyed the image of Nuclear.

Renewables have an EROI of 1 to 16 without taking account with storage costs ( Batteries ) 

Below you can see two bar graphs one from  Forbes magazine (2015) and one from Charles A. S. Hall (born 1943) is an American systems ecologist and ESF Foundation Distinguished Professor at State University of New York in the College of Environmental Science & Forestry.

we need to use less , I don't see a way out.

as you can see below the jury is out , some people claim nuclear is the cheapest with the best EROI and in the second graph its not the case. When I see poor countries building nuclear and not renewables I know what is cheap.

Everything good is almost free

Tuesday, August 30, 2022 Francisco 1 Comments

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Buffet turned 92 yesterday

In 1958, Buffett bought his first house for $31,500. Today, he’s worth $100 billion and he lives in the same house.

“There is no dignity
quite so impressive,
and no independence
quite so important,
as living within your means.”
― Calvin Coolidge

The fisherman and the businessman

There was once a businessman who was sitting by the beach in a small Brazilian village.
As he sat, he saw a Brazilian fisherman rowing a small boat towards the shore having caught quite few big fish.
The businessman was impressed and asked the fisherman, “How long does it take you to catch so many fish?”
The fisherman replied, “Oh, just a short while.”
“Then why don’t you stay longer at sea and catch even more?” The businessman was astonished.
“This is enough to feed my whole family,” the fisherman said.
The businessman then asked, “So, what do you do for the rest of the day?”
The fisherman replied, “Well, I usually wake up early in the morning, go out to sea and catch a few fish, then go back and play with my kids. In the afternoon, I take a nap with my wife, and evening comes, I join my buddies in the village for a drink — we play guitar, sing and dance throughout the night.”

The businessman offered a suggestion to the fisherman.
“I am a PhD in business management. I could help you to become a more successful person. From now on, you should spend more time at sea and try to catch as many fish as possible. When you have saved enough money, you could buy a bigger boat and catch even more fish. Soon you will be able to afford to buy more boats, set up your own company, your own production plant for canned food and distribution network. By then, you will have moved out of this village and to Sao Paulo, where you can set up HQ to manage your other branches.”

The fisherman continues, “And after that?”
The businessman laughs heartily, “After that, you can live like a king in your own house, and when the time is right, you can go public and float your shares in the Stock Exchange, and you will be rich.”
The fisherman asks, “And after that?”
The businessman says, “After that, you can finally retire, you can move to a house by the fishing village, wake up early in the morning, catch a few fish, then return home to play with kids, have a nice afternoon nap with your wife, and when evening comes, you can join your buddies for a drink, play the guitar, sing and dance throughout the night!”
The fisherman was puzzled, “Isn’t that what I am doing now?”